UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes Early Leans and Full Fight Card

Curtis Blaydes -160 vs Sergei Pavlovich:

Curtis Blaydes evolution as a HW has been great to witness. He was once a one dimensional wrestler, who put in the time to develop his stand-up and has shown drastic offensive strides from fight to fight.

Blaydes has phenomenal wrestling, and great cardio to go a long with it. The only time we’ve seen him slow down was against Volkov, a fight in which he set the HW record for most TDs in a fight at 14.

Volkov is lanky, and presents problems off of his back that Pavlovich simply doesn’t. His long limbs make it harder to improve your position, or to mount much offense from on top. Volkov also has phenomenal cardio himself, and we recently saw him shut down another wrestler with ease in Romanov, and dispatch of him in the first few minutes.

Don’t get me wrong though, Blaydes at times is content to play it safe(look at his fight versus Jarzinho). But that’s what you want to see in a fighter you’re backing, high fight IQ, whether you’re boring or not.

He has lost to big power punchers, Ngannou 2x, and Lewis. He won the first round against Lewis, until he walked into a perfect uppercut that probably wouldn’t be able to be replicated if they ran that fight back 100 times(and I’m a Lewis fan, despite the skid he’s on).

It’s also interesting to note that the bookies have lined Blaydes as a favorite in every single UFC fight he’s had, outside of the Aspinall fight, which we can’t take much from.

On the other side we have Sergei Pavlovich, a prolific knockout artist who boasts an impressive record of 17-1, 14/17 of his wins coming by knockout, most in the first round.

His stand-up is good, and he comes at you with bad intentions from the opening bell. However, he has a few red flags that stick out to me when watching tape on him.

Contrary to popular belief, he has been five rounds before. But it was against a terrible fighter on the Russian regional scene. He won the fight, but slowed down immensely, and he didn’t show a good base in that fight — single leg takedowns came easy for his opponent.

Has he shored up that hole in his game? Maybe. It’s been 6 years since that fight took place. But the fact that he hasn’t been out of the first round since 2017 is incredibly worrying.

Blaydes trains at Denver at elevation, and we know he can push a high pace and his cardio will hold up. I can’t say the same thing about Sergei. He’s built like a brick house, and when lactic acid builds up after dealing with repeated takedown attempts and clinch control, I think it’s safe to say he WILL slow down.

We understand people wanting to bet a power puncher, who has an impressive record, as a dog, but this isn’t the spot to do so.

If we’re looking at his wins in the UFC, they’re simply okay. Marcelo Golm is chinny, and was just knocked out in Bellator as a favorite against Daniel James in round 3, who was completely gassed at the time of knocking him out.

Maurice Greene is a bum, who chain smokes cigs, and was dropped by Gian Villante who moved up to HW for his retirement fight(seriously, watch that fight and tell me Greene is a good fighter).

Shamil is 41 and has lost his last 4 by KO, and has since been cut from the promotion.

And then you have his last two wins, where the majority of this recency bias for Sergei comes from. He ko’d Derrick Lewis, who ko’d Blaydes, so surely that’ll translate into this fight, right?

I don’t believe so. The Derrick Lewis we’ve seen ever since the Gane fight looks like he’s been showing up for a check. And although most people argue that the fight was stopped prematurely, I don’t agree. Derrick fell face first into the canvas before recovering, which isn’t a good look, and the stoppage was justified.

Against Tai, Tai leading up to the fight straight up said, numerous times, he just wants to get paid so he can spend Christmas with his son(the fight was in December). Lewis and Tai both decided to throw down with Sergei from the opening bell, and paid the price for it. It’s safe to say Blaydes will be quite a bit more hesitant.

Anyways, this is a huge step up for Sergei against a fighter who’s style he’s never had to deal with before. Blaydes has fought power punchers, and presumably has learned his lesson.

If you’re playing Sergei, I’d do it by rounds 1/2 KO. That’s where 95% of his win equity is. If you’ve seen me post before, you know I love to find value in dogs, but this isn’t the spot.

Give me Blaydes -160, Blaydes itd -120, and I’ll be eyeing his round 3-5 props when they drop across all books.

This whole card feels like one for the Dogs!!!

We will be back early Saturday 22nd April with our main card and full card picks, when more lines are available.

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