PGA Tour
Golf Tips
Date: Feb 16–19, 2023
Players are now heading to Riviera for the Genesis Invitational, which marks the final event of the west coast swing. Once again, we have a highly competitive field. The Riviera Country Club, a par 71 course, will be played at around 7,322 yards. It is renowned for its challenging green complexes and Kikuyu rough, which poses difficulties for players. A winning score of approximately 14 under par can be expected, although last year’s scores went lower than usual, making it worth monitoring.
First, let’s delve into the complex greens and the below-average greens in regulation (GIR) numbers at this course. This indicates that the short game holds great significance here, which is supported by historical statistics. However, we should not solely focus on the short game; instead, we should combine it with course history. Players who have played on these tricky greens multiple times have a better understanding of their intricacies. This doesn’t mean first-time players cannot navigate these greens, but the advantage lies with those who are more familiar with them and aware of the nuances. Additionally, since the GIR numbers are below the tour average, we want to identify the key approach shot distances and target players who excel in those ranges. For this course, the prominent yardages are 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards.
Next, it’s important to note that players at this course hit fairways below the tour average. While we consider hitting fairways advantageous here, the rough may not penalize players as much as some might think. Looking at past results, we observe several players who drive the ball far but not necessarily accurately. Therefore, we will use driving accuracy as a differentiating factor rather than a prerequisite. If we find ourselves torn between two players, we will lean towards the one who hits more fairways. However, we believe that distance off the tee can provide a meaningful advantage. Last year, we saw long hitters dominate the leaderboard, so a similar pattern may emerge this time.
In line with the above point, we will focus on players who perform well on 450-500 yard par 4s. Since these holes account for one-third of the scoring, we must target players who can capitalize on them or, at the very least, avoid faltering. Lastly, historical statistics indicate that this event favors strong tee-to-green players, especially considering the importance of the short game. Players need a well-rounded skill set to succeed at this course, so we should avoid those with glaring weaknesses, particularly if they are unfamiliar with the course.
Key Stats Summary:
- SG: Tee-to-green
- SG: Approach, focusing on 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards
- SG: Around the Green/SG: Putting
- SG: Off the Tee, with an emphasis on distance
- Par 4 scoring on 450-500 yard holes
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Max Homa @20/1: Homa possesses the ideal profile for success at this course. He ranks #1 in Tee-to-green performance on difficult courses and no worse than 15th in any of the four major Strokes Gained areas. His course history is exceptional, with a recent win, a 10th-place finish, and a 5th-place finish in his last three trips. He also comes in with strong recent form, including a win, a T3, and two other top-20 finishes in his last five events.
Patrick Cantlay @25/1: Cantlay is another player with an all-around skill set. He ranks no worse than 24th in any of the four main Strokes Gained categories. His reputation as one of the Tour’s top shot shapers and problem solvers makes him well-suited for Riviera. He has consistently gained strokes off the tee in numerous recent events. Cantlay had four consecutive top-15 finishes at this course before last year’s T33.
Dog Pick:
Si Woo Kim @80/1: Kim ranks first in the field in strokes gained around the green and second from distances of 175 yards and beyond. This is particularly significant considering the likelihood of players finding themselves in the rough this week. He does not have any glaring weaknesses in his game and has not finished outside the top-25 since November. Although his history at Riviera is mixed, he has achieved as high as a 3rd-place finish in 2019.
The Genesis Invitational is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour in southern California, first played 97 years ago in 1926 as the Los Angeles Open. Other previous names include Genesis Open, Northern Trust Open and Nissan Open. Image Credit: golfchannel.com
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