PGA Tour Golf
Jan 12–15, 2023
Players will be making their way to Honolulu for the Sony Open, which will be held at Wai’alae Country Club (WCC). WCC is a par 70 course, spanning approximately 7,050 yards. Nestled between the majestic Ko’olau mountain range and the picturesque Pacific Coast, this course offers a stunning backdrop for players and spectators alike. It provides an opportunity for players to display their skills while treating the audience to breathtaking views throughout the round. WCC is known as a second-shot course, with fairways that can be challenging to hit, but the greens are relatively more accessible compared to the tour average. However, the weather conditions play a crucial role in determining the course’s difficulty. In calm conditions, we can anticipate winning scores around 20 under par. However, if the wind picks up, as witnessed in Cam Smith’s 2020 victory, the course becomes a completely different and more demanding challenge, resulting in lower scores.
The 17th hole, known as the Sony Open Fire-Bird, is the course’s signature hole and a highlight worth tuning in for. It features a classic Redan-styled green, sloping from the front right to the back left, with bunkers strategically placed to capture both short and long shots. This Scottish links-style design forces players to play away from the hole to achieve proximity. If the winds intensify, this hole becomes one of the most challenging on the course, promising exciting viewing for fans.
Now, let’s delve into the key statistics we’ll be focusing on for this tournament. Previous results indicate that Strokes Gained: Approach is one of the most vital statistics for success in this event. As mentioned earlier, WCC is a second-shot course, making SG: Approach a crucial factor in player performance. Additionally, we will pay close attention to proximity from 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards since nearly half of the approach shots fall within these distances.
Accuracy off the tee holds significance on this course, given that it falls below the tour average. Therefore, we will consider Good Drives in our statistical model. Par 5 scoring will also be essential due to the presence of only two par 5 holes, which happen to be the easiest on the course. With eagle rates exceeding 3% on the 18th hole and over 6% on the 9th hole, it is advantageous to target players who can capitalize on these scoring opportunities.
Lastly, the greens at WCC are Bermuda grass, and winners at this event often exhibit exceptional putting performances (as seen with Deki last year). Therefore, we will lean toward players known for their proficiency with the putter, particularly on Bermuda greens.
Key Stats: SG: Approach, Proximity 150-175 and 175-200 yards, Par 4 Scoring, Par 3 Scoring from 175-200 yards, Good Drives, Eagles Gained.
It’s worth noting that 7 out of the last 8 winners have competed in the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week prior, so this could be a factor to consider.
Now, onto our picks for the tournament, with most firms paying 6+ places:
Jordan Spieth @14/1
Spieth’s previous appearance at the Sony Open was in 2019, during a challenging year on the course. However, he has experienced a resurgence since then, and we can expect a different and improved version of Spieth this year.
Brian Harman @18/1
Harman has elevated his game in the past six months and appears poised to secure a long-awaited victory, his first in over five years.
Tom Kim @11/1 – Favorite
Kim is a talented golfer who excels under pressure. He has proven his ability to perform when it matters most, and his track record suggests he knows how to win without succumbing to the demands of the game.
Outsider:
Cameron Davis @40/1
Cameron Davis, an Australian professional golfer, has a successful amateur career and has been a regular on the PGA Tour since 2018. He secured a victory at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, demonstrating his potential to contend for titles on the professional circuit.
Best Golf Betting Picks and Predictions, Image Credit: pgatour.com
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