Israel Adesanya – Decision (Adesanya finally faces his boogeyman. Alex Pereira holds two victories over Adesanya, including a knockout reel that has plagued Izzy on social media over his entire career. For a champion so defensive of his belt and such a consummate game planner, don’t be surprised if Adesanya swallows the boos to grind Pereira against the cage. Andreas Michailidis dominated Poatan for an entire round in the clinch, after all. Not to write off Adesanya controlling the striking affair, either. Pereira owns a monster left and a freakishly long frame, but he does leave his mid-rift open. Considering Adesanya’s arsenal of range weapons, the Kiwi has a shot at nullifying Poatan throughout 25-minutes. It does seem a little foolish, however, to roll those dice against an opponent who has proven to own one-shot KO power over you. This isn’t a shut-and-closed case. Adesanya will have to dig very deep to work around Pereira’s nuclear-left hook. I just feel like the variety that Adesanya offers will ask questions about Pereira’s gas tank that is yet to be proven in the sphere of MMA)
–
Weili Zhang – TKO Round 4 (A tireless chain wrestler, Esparza found almost no success on the mat against Thug Rose yet won based on intent/ activity. Cookie Monster remains the best technical wrestler in the division, however, and is primed to claim entire rounds of control time against Zhang. Two issues are Zhang’s freak physicality and ability to catch a second wind. At a certain point, Zhang will make the most of her vast advantage on the feet once Esparza’s takedowns stop firing)
–
Dustin Poirier – TKO Round 3 (Chandler’s early round threat on the feet has the possibility to catch Poirier cold. The speed and power differential in the first round will be stark, but it isn’t the safest route to back. Rather, Poirier’s awkward cross-guard will create headaches for Chandler alongside a deep gas tank that will punish a notorious fader. Lest we forget Iron Mike’s wrestling avenue, but once he finds early success on the feet he will chase the finish)
–
Frankie Edgar – Decision (The former Lightweight champion has seen his chin and physical gifts fall off a cliff. Two worrying red flags for a fighter that now leans more heavily on wrestling for a safe victory. Gutierrez has been pinned to the mat before; the 31-year-old struggled against Cody Durden’s relentless takedown attempts and Raoni Barcelos’ technical top game. We will most likely see Gutierrez tear apart Edgar’s lead leg. Still, I’m going with my heart and backing Edgar for one last hurrah)
Dan Hooker – TKO Round 1 (A big step-down in competition is the best litmus test for Hooker’s future. Puelles is a dynamic submission artist, consecutive kneebars prove this. Unfortunately for the Peruvian, he lacks the wrestling tools needed to create his preferred fight on the mat. This fight seems destined to stay on the feet and see the Kiwi blast Puelles to the shadow realm)
Brad Riddell – Decision (Facing off against Riddell’s conservative counter-punching, Moicano will benefit from the freedom to set the pace and lead off the front foot. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, he lacks the wrestling outlet to transition to his slick grappling. Rather, Riddell could add in his ground game – it was only a year ago that Riddell sat Drew Dober on his arse five times over their fight. Once Riddell has made his reads, the Kiwi should break Moicano mentally)
Dominic Reyes – TKO Round 2 (Spann’s victory over the aggressive little Moldovan largely came from Cutelaba’s reckless takedowns. Still, Superman carries heavy hands. Against Reyes, who has sat on the sidelines for a year and a half, it may be enough to count. I’d like to think that Reyes has recuperated from his losses against the division’s elite and will illuminate the gulf in class between himself and Spann)
Erin Blanchfield – Decision (McCann is riding a similar wave of confidence, but the match-makers seem keen to cash in on the outspoken Scouser. Blanchfield is a strong takedown artist, varying trips and throws, and could replicate similarly dominant performances as Taila Santos and Lara Procopio. Meatball carries enough power and early aggression to buzz Blanchfield, but it’s more likely the Liverpudlian walks herself into a takedown)
Andre Petroski – Submission Round 1 (Petroski is an entertaining one-round threat but has no real ability to control his gas tank. The TUF competitor explodes on everything – overhands, power doubles, speculative submissions. Wellington Turman just so happens to start slow and carry a flakey chin to boot)
Ottman Azaitar – TKO Round 1 (Matt Frevola owns the more rounded skillset meaning if he can survive a horrifyingly difficult first round, Steamrolla will thrive. Unfortunately, his kryptonite is aggressive, early strikers. Ottman Azaitar can find his range on the first punch – expecting an immediate sleeping)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz – Decision (I’m not sure how much stock can be put into beating Felice Herrig, but one can hope that Kowalkiewicz has regained some confidence in her skill set. Both women meet at a crossroads fight considering their 37 years of age. The main question will be whether Gomez has the power to sleep Kowalkiewicz – questionable, considering the Pole has only been stopped by the granite-handed Jessica Andrade)
Seung Woo Choi – Decision (Trizano has struggled to maintain pace with recent opponents, striking at effectively half of the significant strikes of Hakeem Dawodu and Lucas Almeida. Allowing Choi the freedom to work his way into the fight and impose his frame seems like a surefire way to get the South Korean back to winning ways)
Julio Arce – Decision (A couple of years ago, this would have felt like the perfect test for a growing Montel Jackson. It just feels like the American has not synced together his sum of parts since the loss to Brett Johns. Arce is a difficult fighter to tie to the mat, even considering Jackson’s past success against Felipe Colares and JP buys. In a pure striking affair, Arce will be vulnerable to Jackson’s power but the former is far more willing to consistently trade)
Nicolae Negumereanu – Decision (Nicu is on a four-fight winning streak, and I can’t quite believe it, but I’m back him to stretch it. Ulberg will struggle against Negumereanu for the sheer fact that the Romanian’s chin is simply unbreakable. The fight will revolve around whether Ulberg can maintain his gas tank through fifteen minutes while working off the back foot. Of course, an argument could be made that Ulberg cracks hard, but so do Kennedy Nzechukwu and Ihor Potieria – believe the Nicu hype train)
0 Comments