The Final Events of the PGA Tour
Predictions
Date: Aug 25–28, 2022
Course: East Lake Golf Club
This week marks the culmination of the season with the Tour Championship, where the winner will be awarded a generous prize of £14 million. The tournament features the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings and does not have a cut. It employs a staggered start format, wherein players begin with strokes under par based on their points standing. Some bookmakers may offer bets without the staggered start, as determining odds can be complicated.
The event will take place at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, the same venue as last year. This course is characterized by its narrow fairways, placing great importance on accurate driving. Precise driving will be the key skill to watch for this week.
East Lake’s fairways are known to be among the tightest on the tour, making driving accuracy crucial. Although the rough may not appear overly long, hitting the fairway is essential to position approach shots for optimal scoring opportunities. Looking at past results, there is a correlation between Greens in Regulation and Driving Accuracy and low scores at East Lake. Therefore, I will closely examine the leaders in these statistical categories. Additionally, due to the challenge of hitting the right parts of the greens from the rough, I will consider scrambling as well. The course often presents uneven lies, so ball striking will also be an important factor to consider. With five par 4s falling in the 400-450-yard range (two slightly shorter at 380-385 yards), I believe par 4 scoring in this distance range will be significant. It is likely that par 4 scoring will overlap with Strokes Gained: Approach from 125-250 yards, so that will also be a stat of interest. Since there are only two par 5s, both reachable, capitalizing on them will be crucial, making par 5 scoring another key statistic to analyze.
Target Profile: Based on past results, strong Tee-To-Green play is essential at East Lake. Players such as Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Paul Casey, Jon Rahm, and to some extent, Dustin Johnson, have performed well here due to their impressive Tee-To-Green skills. Putting does not seem to be a decisive factor, so I will not focus extensively on that aspect. My initial target list will be based on Tee-To-Green rankings, and I will further narrow it down by considering other key statistics.
Key Stats: SG: Tee-To-Green,
SG: OTT (emphasis on accuracy),
SG: Approach (emphasis on 125-150 yds),
Scrambling,
Ball Striking,
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds,
Par 5 scoring.
Our Picks: Most firms paying 6+ places
Xander Schauffele ML @7/1
Sam Burns ML @18/1
Cameron Smith ML @16/1
John Rahm ML @14/1
Full 30 Player Field And Par Score:
Scottie Scheffler, -10
Patrick Cantlay, -8
Will Zalatoris, -7
Xander Schauffele, -6
Sam Burns, -5
Cameron Smith, -4
Rory McIlroy, -4
Tony Finau, -4
Sepp Straka, -4
Sungjae Im, -4
Jon Rahm, -3
Scott Stallings, -3
Justin Thomas, -3
Camerson Young, -3
Matt Fitzpatrick, -3
Max Homa, -2
Hideki Matsuyama, -2
Jordan Spieth, -2
Joaquin Niemann, -2
Viktor Hovland, -2
Collin Morikawa, -1
Billy Horschel, -1
Tom Hoge, -1
Corey Conners, -1
Brian Harman, -1
K.H. Lee, E
J.T. Poston, E
Sahith Theegala, E
Adam Scott, E
Aaron Wise, E
Best Golf Betting Picks and Preview, Image Credit: koobit.com
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