Daily Tennis Picks
Today’s Pick:
Naomi Osaka vs Qinwen Zheng – Zheng +4.5 games (-195 / 1.5)
Osaka ML @8/13
WTA Mubadala San Jose Classic (Hard Court) – Midnight GMT
This will probably be the most interesting match of the day as far as tennis betting goes and is a pretty brutal draw for Osaka. Tbh im convinced Osaka doesn’t even like tennis anymore and I wouldn’t be surprised if she retires early like Barty. Here are some interesting things going into this match in favor of Zheng:
-
WTA San Jose is one of the most competitive tournaments that is not a Grand Slam tournament
-
Zheng at 19 is having one of the biggest breakouts of tennis this year – she’s one of very few players who is good on every court and is already being considered a future star/superstar
-
Zheng is the only player that was able to take a set off Swiatek during her unstoppable Paris Open run, and was almost able to defeat Rybakina who eventually went on to win Wimbledon
-
Osaka hasn’t played since her loss in the French Open – that was almost 3 months ago
-
Osaka has become notorious for losing in the first round of tournaments (big or small) and continues to struggle with mental health issues
-
Of Zheng’s last 20 games, she’s covered the 4.5 spread (either winning or losing by less) 18 times
-
They’ve never played against each other
Zheng is coming into this match as the underdog and I honestly think there’s a legitimate chance she wins this match. The only reason I’m going to play the safe card is because the only time you shouldn’t bet against Naomi Osaka is during the month of August. Here are some concerns
-Osaka’s career record on hard court is so disgusting I’ll probably click the cash out button if I even type it
-if there’s ever a time she’s looking for a resurgence, it’s during this time
-San Jose is essentially where her impressive career began many years ago (and she’s very aware of this fact following her recent interview)
-She still has an impressive hard court performance this year despite her overall struggles
-Zheng is still young and prone to mistakes
We believe a major reason why Zheng came in hot vs Swiatek is because they’ve never played, being able to steal (deservedly so) a set before Swiatek adjusted. I think the unfamiliarity will strike here too (of course the opposite could be true as well). When Osaka is at her peak, I don’t believe anybody could go toe to toe with her on this surface, but I believe she’s far from that stage. I think +4.5 is a safe go as Zheng is also very strong on hard court.
Best Tennis Picks, Image Credit: sportskeeda.com
0 Comments