PGA Tour Golf Predictions
Date: Jul 28–31, 2022
The Rocket Mortgage Classic is a professional golf tournament held on the PGA Tour. It made its debut in 2019 at Detroit Golf Club in Detroit, Michigan, replacing the Quicken Loans National on the PGA Tour schedule.
While this course is generally considered easier compared to most others on the tour, strategic course management is still important. There are a few holes where playing smart and accepting par as a good score is necessary. On the other hand, there are also holes, particularly par 5s, where players must be aggressive and capable of scoring birdies, as failure to do so will result in losing strokes to the field. Three of the par 5s have birdie rates of over 38% and eagle rates of over 1.5%. Previous winners and top finishers have excelled on the par 5s, highlighting the significance of strong par 5 scoring. In fact, the combined score on par 5s for the last three winners is an impressive 33 under par, with 2 eagles, 30 birdies, 15 pars, and 1 bogey.
Next, Strokes Gained: Approach is a crucial statistic to consider, as it consistently correlates with top finishers. This tournament is known for its abundance of approach shots from distances of 75-100 yards, nearly double the tour average, as well as 10% more shots from 75-150 yards compared to the tour average. Players have the flexibility to choose their desired approach distance, as they are not forced to always hit driver or back off the driver on many holes. It is worth mentioning that two of the par 3s are likely to be over 200 yards in length during each round, so that range will be taken into account to some extent in the analysis.
As mentioned earlier, with winning scores in the high teens to low 20s, Birdies or Better Gained is a significant statistic to assess. Simply put, players must be able to string together multiple birdies and consistently shoot scores in the mid to high 60s to have a chance at winning. Assuming favorable weather conditions, another winning score in the low 20s is expected. Additionally, it’s noteworthy that top finishers have demonstrated proficiency in putting from the 5-10 ft range, although it won’t heavily influence the analysis, it is worth considering since it consistently appears as a significant factor in the past three years of this event.
Lastly, scrambling and short game skills are important aspects to consider. The rough at this course is lengthy, and some holes are lined with trees, making it easy to get out of position. If players solely focus on hitting the driver as far as possible to shorten the holes, the rough will come more into play. The scrambling percentage at this event is approximately 5% higher than the tour average, indicating the significance of a strong short game. Consequently, the analysis will target players who excel with wedges, exhibit reliable putting skills, and place considerable emphasis on par 5 scoring.
Key Stats
SG: Approach w/focus on 75-125 yards
SG: Putting w/focus on 5-10 ft
Par 5 Scoring
Birdies or Better Gained
Scrambling
Our Picks:
Tony Finau @12/1
Finau will be buzzing after his win in the 3m last week and could follow up here.
Troy Merrit @66/1
Chris Kirk @55/1
Kevin Kisner @35/1
*most firms will pay 8+ places so shop for value, we will update post with odds and more picks once markets open. UPDATED 22.21pm 25/07
Image Credit: golfdigest.com
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