Ultimate Frisbee Tips
Got To Catch Them All
Week 12 Picks:
Madison/Indianapolis u42.5 -135 – Madison and Indianapolis will do battle Friday night in a game that will likely decide the third and final spot in the Central Division playoffs. Excluding Indianapolis home games (played indoors, tend to go over) and mutual matches against Detroit (also tend to go over due to Detroit being so bad defensively), six of Madison’s seven qualifying games and all three of Indy’s qualifying games have comfortably gone under this total. Madison prides itself on stingy defense and their trademark zone will slow Indianapolis down. Meanwhile Indy holds the fourth-lowest mark for turnovers in the league, setting up a formula for Friday with lots of patient passes and not as many score-happy goals. Rain is potentially in the forecast in Madison which could also contribute to a lower-scoring game. I like this game to top out in the high teens and stay under the total.
San Diego +5.5 +110 – This is a gorgeous bounce-back opportunity for the Growlers after traveling to Denver three weeks ago and losing by six goals. In that game San Diego was missing some of their strongest players and had just played in Salt Lake City the night before. Now San Diego will get back o-line star and team leader Goose Helton, plus talented thrower Chris Mazur and d-line starter Steven Milardovich. They also return Will Turner who has only played a couple games for the Growlers this season but played a lot of reps in those games. Meanwhile Colorado will have most of its players but may be missing Alex Atkins, rookie of the year contender but listed as ‘Dressed’ for both games this weekend. Atkins is second on the team in completed passes and assists per game, and fourth in goals per game. They also won’t have their other Alex in Alex Tatum, who has been one of the most productive offensive players for the Summit on their d-line. Colorado is a deep team, and should still be the favorites with these two absences, but I’d be shocked if San Diego lost by six goals again, given their roster additions and playing in their own backyard. San Diego hasn’t played since that Colorado game so they’ve been chewing on this loss for three weeks now. I think an upset is possible at +600, though I wouldn’t suggest more than half a unit as Colorado are still the favorites.
Atlanta -5 -110 and Carolina -5 -135 – Two of the stronger teams in the South Division hit the road this weekend to play two of the worst teams in the league in winless Tampa and four-win Pittsburgh respectively, the latter of whom has only beaten Detroit (x3) and Tampa this season. These feel like similar matchups and lines so I’m grouping my writeups together. Both Atlanta and Carolina will have solid rosters, missing a few pieces here and there but overall still very strong. Atlanta’s Matt Smith returns after a multi-week covid absence, and Alex Liu formerly of DC will return after several weeks off to bolster the d-line. Carolina has arguably the deepest roster in the league and it showed against Tampa last week where they won in a landslide despite missing multiple top thrower defenders. Tampa does have a bright spot in getting back two veteran players in Dustin Travaglini and Ryan Hiser, but they can only do so much. Pittsburgh is missing one of their top throwers Clint McSherry and still won’t have Sam VanDusen, a thrower for the Thunderbirds d-line. They will have to lean heavily on Edmonds and Newell (and maybe Sheppard if he goes back to the o-line) to move the disc, and Carolina boasts one of the strongest thrower defenses in the league to counter that. Pittsburgh does have decent height and athleticism downfield, but they don’t have much depth, so if their stars get locked up by Carolina that could be bad news for the Thunderbirds.
Frankly, I expect both games to be sizable wins by the favorites. It should be noted that Tampa did play Atlanta pretty close the last time they were in Florida, losing by just two goals, but Atlanta had uncharacteristically high turnovers that game with 26, compared to their league average of 15ish. They will also have a slightly better roster this weekend, with o-line starters Christian Olsen, Hayden Austin-Knab, and Karl Ekwurtzel making the trek south this weekend after missing the previous road matchup.
Toronto +4.5 -110 – Philadelphia is on the verge of reaching their first postseason since 2013 and I expect them to remain focused this weekend, even against the feisty Toronto. That said, I think this is too wide of a spread. Philadelphia won by four goals in their previous meeting but that was a windy game and in Philadelphia. On the road in Canada, with Toronto playing their final game of the season, I think there’s a good shot they keep it competitive and cover here. Toronto nearly upset DC when the Breeze came into Canada missing some players, and Philly will also be missing some players Saturday in Alex Thorne, Mike Arcata, and Matt Esser. Meanwhile Toronto will have just about everyone except for their standout rookie Oscar Stonehouse. Toronto admittedly has been a rollercoaster of a team this season, so it’s not a lock, but this spread is too wide to pass up.
Toronto/Philadelphia o38.5 -110 – The only explanation for the total being this low is DraftKings overvaluing the previous matchup between these two teams, which was a windy game with lots of turnovers. Excluding that game, Philly has scored 21+ goals in four straight matches, and they get a gorgeous draw in a Toronto team allowing the third-most scores per game by opponents. Toronto is a tough team to project, but against a more middle-of-the-pack opponent than some of the other teams they’ve faced, I think they should be able to score plenty and help drive this game into the 40s. Weather looks good.
Chicago +1.5 -110 – The wrong team is favored in the final regular season matchup between the two Central Division juggernauts, although it’s close. I’d have put Chicago at -1.5 or -2.5, personally. Minnesota bested Chicago by three goals in the previous meeting and are the home team for the finale, but personnel-wise, Chicago has a big on-paper advantage. Defensive talents Dalton Smith, Joe White, and Tim Schoch returned to the Union lineup last weekend and contributed to a slaughtering of Indianapolis. They’ll all play this game. O-line star Paul Arters will also play in his first game back from injury. Chicago has just about every other piece except for Nate Goff, playing at the World Games, and Eli Artemakis, a gifted college receiver nursing a leg injury. Goff is hard to replace, but Chicago is pretty deep in their receiver corps. Meanwhile Minnesota will have most of their pieces but will be without some of their better depth players in Will Brandt, Colin Berry, and Jimmy Kittlesen. This should be a close battle, and I don’t think it’s out of the question that Minnesota wins, but it should be close down the stretch, so I like getting the +1.5 here. You could take the ML at +145 as well, but there’s a bit more risk in that.
Salt Lake City -3 -135 – This is an interesting line given the previous meeting between these two teams was a nine-goal demolition by SLC. Oakland has performed solidly as of late, on a three-game win streak, but those wins came against Portland and Seattle (x2), who are a combined 4-16 this season and had depleted rosters for each game. I do think Oakland is better than their nine-goal embarrassment against SLC; Oakland was missing multiple offensive stars for that game. But to cover +3 would be very difficult facing one of the best teams in the division and even the league. SLC will be at near full-strength, missing a few depth pieces, but will get back Alec Benton and standout deep defender Joel Clutton after a weekend off. Oakland to their credit will also beat at near full-strength. They won’t have Matt Crawford, one of the team’s veteran leaders, but offensive star Keenan Laurence is reportedly back from injury. This won’t likely be another SLC blowout, but I’d be surprised if SLC failed to cover here.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
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