British Open Golf Picks
PGA Tour
Date: July 14–17, 2022
Course: St Andrews, The Old Course
Typically, we don’t give much importance to a golfer’s recent form because any player can have a standout performance and win regardless of their form leading up to the event. However, in the past five years, a trend has emerged where the winner of The Open Championship had at least two top 10 finishes in the five events leading up to the tournament. In some cases, such as Jordan Spieth and Francesco Molinari, they even won an event prior to The Open. Henrik Stenson is the exception among the past five winners, as he didn’t come into The Open in great form, having missed two cuts in a row. However, before that, he had shown excellent form with two top 10 finishes in three events. This suggests that form does play a significant role in predicting the winner at this event. That being said, it doesn’t mean we will completely disregard players in poor form, but we will have more confidence in players in good form this week. Another noteworthy trend is the correlation between The Open Championship and the Masters at Augusta.
Now, let’s discuss how the course is likely to play. When The Open was last held at this venue in 2015, the fairways were relatively easy to hit, the greens were also accessible, scoring was relatively easier compared to typical Open conditions, and several players finished in double digits under par. We don’t expect the course to play much differently this year, and it might even be slightly easier, especially if the weather remains calm. The course setup might suggest that long hitters would have a clear advantage, but that wasn’t necessarily the case when we look at the 2015 leaderboard. While we will consider Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, the real difference-maker on these large greens will likely be Strokes Gained: Approach. We will also heavily weigh Strokes Gained: Tee to Green because we want well-rounded players who excel in major championships.
Speaking of the sizable greens, we will place significant emphasis on a player’s ability to lag putt and successfully two-putt from distances of 40 and 50+ feet. We anticipate seeing a fair number of three-putts this week, so we want to target players who can avoid those costly mistakes. Additionally, there are several challenging spots on the course where players can find trouble, so we will also factor in Bogey Avoidance. With a notable 14 par 4s on the scorecard, performance on par 4s will certainly play a major role. We won’t focus on specific proximity ranges because we believe that for most holes, players will be able to position the ball wherever they want off the tee, as long as there’s no significant wind. They will essentially be leaving themselves with the distance they feel most comfortable with, which is why Strokes Gained: Approach will be a crucial factor. Choosing strategic tee shots is important, but if players can’t hit their approach shots within 15-20 feet on these large greens, their scoring opportunities will be severely limited.
Lastly, let’s briefly discuss what I consider the most significant factor: the weather. For most links courses, the main defense against low scores is the weather, particularly the wind. We have witnessed how incredibly challenging these courses can become when the wind picks up, but we have also seen how much more accessible they are when there’s little to no wind. Therefore, if it appears that the wind will be calm, we should place more emphasis on evaluating a player’s ability to make birdies or better. However, if the wind is expected to be a factor, we will look for players who excel in windy conditions and prioritize their ability to avoid bogeys.
Key Stats
SG: Approach
SG: Tee to Green
3-Putt Avoidance
Par 4 Scoring
Bogey Avoidance
SG: Around the Green – If the wind kicks up this will be important
Our Winner Pick:
Jordan Spieth @14/1
Spieth secured a Claret Jug trophy in his possession following an extraordinary performance at the 2017 Open Championship held at Royal Birkdale. During the tournament, he faced a challenging situation on the 13th hole when his drive veered off-course, narrowly escaping potential trouble. However, Spieth showcased his brilliance by responding with an impressive string of birdie-eagle-birdie-birdie from holes 14 to 17, ultimately securing a three-stroke victory.
Other Betting Predictions: (All Picks Each Way as most firms paying 11+ places)
John Rahm @12/1
Dustin Johnson @28/1
Tommy Fleetwood @28/1
Best Golf Betting Tips and Predictions Edited
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