Ultimate Frisbee Tips
Got To Catch Them All
Week 11 Picks:
Seattle +5.5 -105 – Following an intriguing midseason resurgence, Seattle fell victim to thin rosters and slumped against Colorado and Oakland, sending the Cascades careening back to the depths of the division. This week’s roster is completely different, though, and fundamentally changes Seattle’s outlook against a loaded Salt Lake City team. Adam Simon and Declan Miller are dynamic offensive throwers who each have only played a few games with Seattle this season but have gone off in every game. Miller, a finalist at this year’s high school nationals, in particularly is an engine that never tires. His high school teammate, Ocean Hines, popped up on the Seattle reserves roster and could bring a lot of spark to the team if activated. Seattle will also have Zeppelin Raunig and Tony Venneri back after missing some games. But the most exciting addition is last year’s star Manny Eckert finally making his season debut. Eckert was a force last year and I was worried he wouldn’t suit up at all this season.
Salt Lake will have their usual complement of talent, but will miss Joel Clutton, their top deep defender, as well as a couple o-line starters in Alec Benton and Jensen Wells. They’ll have everyone else, but this could be a sneaky close game. I think SLC is still the appropriate favorite but Seattle at home, in gorgeous weather, with a precedent of playing well when they have top roster additions, has a good chance of covering this large spread imo. I’d also consider a sprinkle on the +900 ML but only a sprinkle.
Detroit/Pittsburgh o41.5 -130 – The low lines on Detroit games continue to be a mystery as seven of Detroit’s eight games this season have scored 42+ goals. The outlier was way back in week 1 in a rainpocalypse-type game. Detroit, for as turnover-happy as they are, still manage to consistently put up 18-19+ goals each game and so as long as their opponent doesn’t implode, the overs tend to hit. Weather looks gorgeous.
New York/Boston u42.5 -105 – This is a brutal spot for Boston, going on the road to face the league’s top team, while also missing their ringleader and star thrower in Ben Sadok. Boston has been plagued by roster absences all season but this is especially rough given Sadok’s wizardly throws and infectious energy. It gets worse as the Glory will also be without Cole Davis-Brand, the team’s second-best offensive thrower, and Noah Backer, an experienced Boston-area player who played a big role in last weekend’s rout of Montreal. And it should come as no surprise at this point, but they won’t have Tannor Johnson or Orion Cable to lean on, nor Topher Davis or Jeff Graham. I think offensively this could be a very tough game for them.
New York will have a couple misses of their own, both on offense: No Jack Williams (Team USA duties), and John Lithio is still not playing (injured?). I’m not sure it will make a huge difference with how stacked New York is, but in the past when Williams has been out New York was a little more turnover-prone, took more risks, etc. Could help with the under as well.
Chicago -4 -140 – This is quietly an important game for Chicago who lost a heartbreaker to Minnesota at home last weekend but needs to bounce back to keep playoff home field advantage in sight. They’ll have to do it without star defender Nate Goff who is away on Team USA duties, but they are receiving some serious reinforcements in standout defenders Dalton Smith and Tim Schoch, plus one of the most hyped players in the country in Joe White. Last season all three of the Chicago-Indianapolis meetings were blowouts by Chicago. Obviously the rosters balanced a bit more since then, but Chicago is still a clear tier ahead of Indy imo. The last meeting between the two came down to the wire, but Indianapolis also got off to a really hot start and they were playing at home indoors where they seem to have been more polished than outdoors and on the road. On Chicago’s stomping grounds, with a history of Alleycat pulverization, I like Chicago to win comfortably here.
Chicago/Indianapolis u45 -140 – This is a value play on the potential wind and Chicago getting reinforcements to their defensive line, although no Goff obviously hurts that aspect. Last season Indy struggled hard against Chicago and while they played Chicago close in a high-scoring thriller, that was indoors and spurred by a hot Indy start. I think on the road in Chicago they could have a tougher time getting off to as great a start and not be able to score as easily in general. Certainly still a risk though given the talent of some of their star players.
Portland +6 -110 – After Portland vomited out one of the worst pro frisbee performances of the year against Oakland two weeks back, I’m a little gun-shy about taking their side, especially against a team as good as SLC. That said, I think there’s some points to be made in Portland’s favor. First, the weather should be really nice compared to how it was against Oakland (brutally hot). Portland is more of a top-heavy team so cooler temps should help out their stars from getting fatigued. Second, Portland is getting Hatchett back, who has been a force all over the field. If Hayes (listed as Dressed) cleats up that will be huge for their competitiveness. Third, I don’t believe there’s an amateur tournament in Oregon this week, so their players should be fresh and not needing to do double-duty with the local club team. I’m definitely still weary about Portland in general but this spread has a good amount of room to cover. NOTE: I will return to this thread Saturday to give my thoughts about this pick after SLC plays Friday, so consider waiting to tail until then.
Madison +4.5 +140 – This is a value play based on a combination of Madison being a prideful team, tending to show up at home, and central division games often faring relatively close. Prideful because Madison put out their worst performance in franchise history in their last game against Minnesota. They’ve had a couple weeks to chew on that game and I expect them to come out with a vengeance. Madison’s home ground, despite not being a massive stadium, has some of the best vibes and energy in the league, and has been a solid advantage over the years. While I don’t think it will impact Minnesota much, I do think it could help keep Madison rolling if they stumble. And finally central division games often are closer-fought. Minnesota is no doubt very good, but I think this is one of those weird games that could end up being really close.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
Image Credit: usaultimate.org
0 Comments