Detroit +9 -130 – After Minnesota battles Chicago on Friday they’ll travel to Grand Rapids to take on the league’s worst team. Detroit has played miserably for much of the season, but there’s some things to like here on the Detroit side. First the massive spread – a lot has to go right for a team to put up double digits on an opponent. The loser either has to completely crumble, or the victor has to play shutdown defense for four quarters, or both. The chance of a backdoor cover is always viable with a spread that large. Second, Minnesota will be playing their first doubleheader weekend of the season. Minnesota is an athletic team, but Chicago will be an exhausting matchup physically and mentally. Minnesota will then have to go on the road, and it’s an earlier time slot Saturday at 3:30, plus they lose an hour traveling through a timezone (ie. it will feel like 2:30 to them). Third, personnel-wise Minnesota will sit both Klane and Van de Moortele, both throwers. Already missing Poletto, they might not have as much thrower depth as they’re used to. We could see Coffin moving over to the o-line here, but that hurts their defensive presence against Detroit.
Now the bad news – this is still a Detroit team whose last team win came in the same timeframe as the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl five years ago. Detroit is on-paper better than in years past, but their performances this year have been atrocious, and they won’t have any of their offseason star signings to lean on. Plus, Minnesota has the best defense in the division. Nonetheless, Detroit is mentally resilient and wants to #BreakTheStreak badly. They won’t win, but they should keep fighting even if Minnesota builds a lead. We think Minnesota’s mental outlook after Chicago could also play a role. Minnesota will play lights out against Chicago. The same can’t necessarily be said for a vastly weaker opponent. We don’t know if their hearts will be in the game if they lose a thriller to Chicago or even if they win in a thriller. Only if they beat Chicago comfortably or lose to Chicago considerably would we disregard this potential mental disadvantage.
DC/Philadelphia o41.5 -110 – This is a litmus test game for Philadephia who has been trying to reach the playoff conversation for years and might finally turn that corner this year. DC, the likely two-seed, has bulldozed every opponent except New York, and a weird road game against Toronto where they were missing a lot of players. No team shoots deep more than Philadelphia and we like them to try to put up offensive fireworks at home against one of the division’s premier teams. DC has a good defense but Philadelphia’s receivers have played solidly this season. For DC they sport one of the best offenses in the league, although they won’t have two starting receivers in Richards and Wodatch, and still don’t have Kolick who has been out with injury. But against Philly’s defenders we don’t think they will have that much difficulty scoring. DC’s throwers are outstanding especially if Norrbom plays who is recovering from an injury. Defensively DC is lacking Cranston and Johnson which bodes well for the over, although Fitzgerald will make his season debut on the d-line. In a way Fitzgerald’s presence could help the over though, given his disc skills on a Philly turnover. There is some rain forecast for this game which could hurt the over, but thankfully not much wind which is the key weather metric. The concern here would be if Philly plays lights out defensively and forces DC’s throwers to be more patient and eat up clock, but I’m not terribly worried about that.
Boston +3 -125 – Boston has had a trainwreck of a season plagued by roster absences and that will remain somewhat true this weekend, although it’s better than some past games. No star receivers in Cable or Johnson, but by now those two play so little that Boston should be used to it. No Stewart, Davis, or Graham stings more. However they do get Halfin back after a week off, Wariner back after a few weeks off, and Backer will make his season debut, who is a pretty good Boston-area club player. In general Boston tends to show out for their home crowd, actually having a winning record at home (3-1) compared to a dreadful 0-5 on the road. We think this could be a scrappy close game with Montreal desperately needing this for their playoff hopes but Boston looking to play spoiler. I wouldn’t be shocked if Boston won outright, but don’t put more than a sprinkle on the ML (+200).
Dallas +7 -110 – Dallas lost soundly to Austin in their first three meetings and now sits at 0-6 still looking for their first win. It’s been quite the fall from grace for a once dominant Texas team and former league champion who hasn’t played a competitive game this year since week one (against Austin). We think that could change this weekend, though. Austin has played a tight offensive rotation this season, with seven players playing at least 160 offensive points. The next-highest player to get o-line reps has just 31 points under their belt. Other players fill in from time-to-time on the o-line but in general they have a pretty narrow rotation. This weekend they will miss two o-line players including breakout star thrower Radack, plus downfield machine Valsaraj. This will be the first absence all season for the pair. They also won’t have 6’7” giant Pollack defensively.
Los Angeles +6.5 -110 – Colorado has beaten every team in the division at least once but have yet to play Los Angeles. Colorado is shaping up to be a potential league title contender whereas LA is pretty much out of the playoff picture due to their tiebreaking losses against San Diego and San Diego’s relatively soft upcoming schedule. That said, this is a LA team that seems to vibing well together and enjoying playing with each other. This is an important point: Seattle, for example, is a team that at times has looked brilliant but has had a revolving door of a roster. Same deal with Portland, and it shows with their combined 4-14 record. They just don’t have as much buy-in from their star players. LA on the other hand have had a much more consistent roster, except for maybe Koo. They don’t have as many flashy stars as other teams but they have good chemistry, plenty of AUDL experience, and play hard for each other.
We think there’s also a point to be made about Colorado’s home schedule. Three of the Summit’s four home victories have come against fatigued opponents who played in Utah the night before. That, plus the elevation, makes for a strong home field advantage. LA will be playing just one game this weekend in Colorado. That’s important physically, but also mentally as they can just focus on going 100% for this game without having to think about another game. It should be a fun one we think. Colorado will play Hubbard in his season debut; Hubbard was a scoring machine for Detroit in 2017 but hasn’t played professional frisbee since 2017 (playing five seasons for Detroit changes a man, I’m sure). We don’t think LA will win, but I think they’ll cover this wide spread.
LA/Colorado o40.5 -110 – This is pretty straightforward. Colorado has consistently proven an ability to score at will, and LA defensively does not pose enough of a threat to limit the Summit’s offensive talent. Nethercutt is one of the best pure throwers in the league and will have all of his receivers available. Meanwhile with LA playing just one game this weekend and boasting lots of chemistry and professional experience, we think LA should be able to make their mark offensively as well. Weather in Denver looks pretty good.
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