PGA Golf
Golf Tips
Date: May 9-12, 2024
We shift our focus to the Wells Fargo Championship, which makes its return to Quail Hollow.
Quail Hollow is a challenging par 71 course spanning 7,538 yards, often regarded as one of the toughest on the tour. Upon analyzing the course, we immediately notice that driving accuracy is significantly lower here, almost 9% below the tour average. Additionally, the Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage is down by over 4%. One might assume that players are hitting long drives without worrying about the rough, but that isn’t the case. So, what can we infer from these statistics? It seems that players opt for the “bomb and gauge” approach, trying to leave themselves with shorter shots into the greens. With six par 4s playing in the 450-500 yard range, another alternative is to use less club off the tee to stay in the fairway and then tackle longer irons into the greens. Therefore, if players aren’t long hitters, accuracy and proficiency with long irons become crucial. However, if they can bomb it accurately off the tee, it’s a significant advantage on this course.
Next, we turn our attention to Strokes Gained: Approach, specifically focusing on shots from 175+ yards. Over 50% of approach shots will be from this distance, including three par 3s falling within that range. Furthermore, the gap between Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach is not significant, so instead of examining those statistics separately, we’ll consider Ball Striking as a whole. Proximity to the hole is higher than the tour average, but so are the instances of 3-putts, indicating that Strokes Gained: Putting will also play a role.
We can anticipate a winning score around 13-14 under par, and the weather forecast for the weekend looks favorable. Given the course’s difficulty, there will inevitably be bogeys, double bogeys, and possibly a few triples. The key is to minimize mistakes and capitalize on the holes that are relatively easier. Therefore, we’ll factor in Fairways Gained and Opportunities Gained when developing our model.
Key Stats:
- Ball Striking
- Driving Distance
- Fairways Gained
- Opportunities Gained
- Approach Game: Proximity from 175+
Betting Picks:
Rory Mcilroy @15/2
Not seeing much support here for Rory which is surprising, we would probably prefer a wider market price but even at 15/2 could be a good earner.
Tommy Fleetwood @25/1
People who follow our picks know we back Fleetwood weekly and over a season he don’t let us down, we know he’s due a big week and at great odds is worth a punt for each way money.
Sahith Theegala @28/1
If you have watched this guy he’s a great ball striker and this course will suit his game he is useful with the putter and shouldn’t be out the running.
Most Bookies paying 8 places*
The Wells Fargo Championship is a professional golf tournament in North Carolina on the PGA Tour. Held in early May at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, it has attracted some of the top players on the tour.
Image Credit: wcnc.com
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