PGA Tour
Open Golf Picks
Date: April 4-7 2024
With the Masters just around the corner, there is one more tournament to discuss—the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio. Taking place at the Oaks Course in TPC San Antonio, this challenging par 72 layout spans 7,438 yards. Designed by Greg Norman, the course features Bermuda greens, strategically positioned greenside bunkers, and a focus on rewarding golfers with excellent ball-striking abilities.
Let’s focus on a key approach distance. Three of the four par 5s in the course measure 590+ yards, making it challenging for many players to reach them in two shots. As a result, we can expect a significant number of approach shots from the range of 75-125 yards, accounting for approximately 22% of the total. Additionally, there are four relatively short par 4s that will also require approach shots from this distance. Therefore, it is crucial to target players who excel with their wedge play, as they will have ample opportunities to score.
Given the below-average Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage at this course, the Short Game becomes another important statistic to consider. Jordan Spieth, known for his exceptional short game, has achieved considerable success here, reinforcing the significance of this aspect. Course history carries more weight than in an average event, likely due to the importance of the short game and the ability to navigate the greenside bunkers effectively. Thus, Sand Saves will also be factored into the analysis. While long and accurate drives are favorable, they are not a deal-breaker since both longer and shorter hitters have performed well at this course. The rough is not overly penalizing, so the general rule of thumb remains that longer drives tend to be advantageous.
In addition, it’s worth noting that there was a Korn Ferry Tour event held at this course in 2020, won by Davis Riley. Notable high finishers from that event in this week’s field include Pendrith, Smotherman, Ben Martin, Lee Hodges, Nick Hardy, and Max McGreevy.
Last but not least, we will be targeting strong Ball Strikers. Given the importance of Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and the below-average GIR percentage, golfers with solid ball-striking abilities should have an advantage in this tournament.
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach, with a focus on 75-125 yards
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Strokes Gained: Short Game
- Sand Saves
- Par 4 Scoring on holes of 400-450 yards
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Ludvig Aberg @11-1 –
This will be my first time betting Aberg this year, so this is not a fan-boy, we pick him every week no matter the odds bet. We’ve stayed away from him thus far largely due to odds but can’t deny the course fit here. This is a stronger than usual field but we feel like the heavy hitters are more concerned with getting tuned up for the Masters than winning this event. Ludvig is a perfect fit here and possesses the all around game to dominate this field. He will be playing to win.
Corey Connors @22-1 –
Were not going to try and get cute here and fade a guy who’s dominated this event, winning twice in the last 4 years. His approach and tee-to-green numbers have been awesome. He’s been outstanding off the tee in all 5 appearances here and he’s only lost strokes putting in one appearance here, which is huge for a guy who notoriously struggles with the flat stick.
Billy Horschel @33-1 –
Billy has really turned it around as of late with a 7th, 9th, and 12th place finish in his last 4 events. He has a great course history as well with 3 top 5 finishes to his name. His all around play has been super solid recently which is why we think he could be in for a big week.
Most Bookmakers paying 6+ Places so E/W Advised.
The Texas Open, known as the Valero Texas Open for sponsorship reasons, is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour, played near San Antonio, Texas. It dates back 101 years to 1922, when it was first called the Texas Open; San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corporation took over naming rights in 2002.
Image Credit: valerotexasopen.com
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