PGA Tour
Golf Tips
Date: Mar 21–24, 2024
Completing the Florida swing, players will travel approximately four hours south to Tampa, FL, for the Valspar Championship. The tournament is held at Innisbrook Resort on the Copperhead Course, a challenging par 71 layout spanning around 7,340 yards. The course is a favorite among players and features a demanding finish known as the snake pit, consisting of three tough holes: the par 4 16th, nicknamed “Mocassin,” followed by a lengthy par 3 called “Rattler,” and concluding with the aptly named par 4 18th, “Copperhead.” This final stretch is likely to provide an exciting Sunday finish, particularly if the leaderboard is tightly contested.
When analyzing the course layout and determining key statistics, it becomes evident that almost every fairway is lined with trees, and water hazards come into play on a few holes right off the fairway. Driving accuracy holds significance here, as it falls slightly below the tour average, while the greens in regulation (GIR%) percentage is notably lower by almost 6%. These factors indicate that hitting fairways and avoiding significant misses are crucial.
Next, let’s consider specific distances on the course. There are five par 3s, with three falling within the range of 200-225 yards and one at 195 yards. What makes these holes even more important is that three of them rank among the nine most challenging holes on the course. Additionally, there are three par 4s ranging from 450 to 500 yards, with two more measuring 445 yards. Focusing on this range is essential because some of these par 4s play longer than their yardage suggests, as indicated by the distribution of approach shot distances. Positioning off the tee is vital, and players won’t be able to simply unleash their drivers on many of these holes; they’ll need to adjust their strategy for better positioning. This aligns with the approach shot distribution chart, which shows that nearly half of the approach shots on this course will come from distances over 175 yards.
Strokes Gained: Approach becomes a key statistic, with a specific focus on distances of 175-200 yards. Additionally, we’ll consider strokes gained from 175+ yards, though to a slightly lesser extent. As is typical on longer courses, scoring opportunities often arise on the par 5s, so Par 5 Scoring will also be a factor to consider. Another important stat is Strokes Gained: Total, as past top finishers have displayed a well-rounded game. It’s crucial to lean towards players who can gain strokes in all areas or, at the very least, not lose significant strokes in any one category. Putting proficiency and the ability to save pars with solid short game skills are vital in this event. Finally, as always, we’ll prioritize players who excel in ball-striking, as it holds even greater importance this week due to the significance of an all-around game.
Traditionally, this tournament has played quite difficult, but the last two years saw Sam Burns posting back-to-back 17-under scores. This year, we anticipate a winning score around 15-under, although it’s worth noting that there might be some rain in the forecast for Saturday.
Key Stats:
- Good Drives/Driving Accuracy
- Par 4 scoring on holes of 450-500 yards
- Par 3 scoring from 200-225 yards
- SG: Approach, with a focus on proximity from 175-200 yards
- SG: Total
- SG: Ball Striking
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Cameron Young @25/1
Let’s see if we get Scam Young again, but his long irons are great, his distance of the tee allows him to club down, his putter isn’t that bad recently – so if we can get a peak week with the putter or his irons, he has a good chance at this course.
Keegan Bradley @40/1
Not in the best form, but at least he’s shown that he can win last season. A good course for him on paper, and also had a 2nd, though he is a little hit or miss here, as he’s got several MCs, but in outright betting we don’t care about a 10th place, so were ignoring those finishes a bit.
Davis Thompson @80/1
18th in the field on 550-600 par5s, 4th in 200-225 par3s. 6 of the holes land in this category, so those are some important stats for me. 9th in the field in strokes gained total, yes this is enough for us at this number.
Most Bookmakers Paying 5+ Places.
The Valspar Championship is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour, played annually on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club in Palm Harbor, northwest of Tampa, Florida.
Image Credit: wtsp.com
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