PGA Tour
Golf Tips
Date: March 14-17, 2024
Players will now make a short journey north to Ponte Vedra Beach for the highly anticipated Players Championship. The Players Stadium Course, known as golf’s first true stadium course, is a par 72 layout spanning around 7,256 yards. If you haven’t witnessed this tournament before, be sure to tune in for the iconic par 3 17th island green. It is one of the most daunting holes in golf, particularly on Sunday when players near the top of the leaderboard face the pressure. This hole has witnessed numerous unforgettable moments in golf, including Tiger Woods’ remarkable shot in the past. Look it up if you haven’t seen it before, or watch it again for its magic.
Unlike some other events, course history doesn’t provide significant predictability at the Players Championship. The focus here is more on current form and who gets hot during the tournament. Driving accuracy is slightly higher than the tour average, while driving distance is lower. This indicates that players value hitting the fairways at this course. Typically, the winning score ranges from 13 to 15 under par, with the lowest score over the past decade being 18 under and the highest being 10 under. Last year’s weather conditions were extraordinary, so we won’t place too much emphasis on that when analyzing this year’s event. However, we’ll monitor the weather closely as it could potentially impact the tournament, particularly on Saturday.
Approach shots at the Players Championship often involve wedge shots, with distances of 75-100, 100-125, and 125-150 yards exceeding the tour average. For betting purposes, we’ll primarily focus on proximity approach shots from 100 to 150 yards. Strokes Gained: Approach has historically been the most crucial statistic, so targeting players who excel in this aspect, particularly with wedges, is essential.
We’ll also pay attention to Par 4 scoring on holes ranging from 450 to 500 yards. There are five par 4s falling into this range, which often result in long iron approach shots. While these won’t be directly incorporated into our model, they remain important shots to consider. Additionally, we’ll factor in par 5 scoring. Three of the par 5s are easily reachable in two shots, and the fourth is still quite manageable. Given the challenge presented by some of the long par 4s, players will need to score well on the par 5s to remain competitive.
The course features plenty of trouble, and Bogey Avoidance has become increasingly relevant among the leaders in recent years. Therefore, we’ll examine this stat as well. As a Pete Dye-designed course, strong emphasis will be placed on ball-striking, and players with a proven track record on Pete Dye tracks will be worth considering.
Lastly, the Players Championship is a prestigious event where top-tier players often emerge victorious. While longer odds players can still be evaluated, we want to ensure we select players who can compete against the best and have a history of doing so.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach, with a focus on proximity from 100-150 yards
- Par 4 scoring on holes of 450-500 yards
- SG: Par 5 Scoring
- Driving Accuracy
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Ball Striking
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Justin Thomas 18/1 Each Way
Justin has been playing very well this year, looked very good Sunday at the API, and has won here before
Tommy Fleetwood 40/1 Each Way
We find ourselves backing Fleetwood weekly and his odds get bigger, he tends to start strong and fade but he is due a big week and at these odd is worth a punt.
Scott Scheffler 6/1
If he putts as well as last week he’s going to win at a canter. If he putts neutral he still wins. Pete Dye specialist, elite driver, elite iron player, elite around the greens, defending champion.
As mentioned above about the 17th hole we thought we would add this.
The Players Championship is an annual golf tournament on the PGA Tour. Originally known as the Tournament Players Championship, it began in 1974. The Players Championship at one point offered the highest purse of any tournament in golf. Image Credit: theplayers.com
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