PGA Tour Golf
AT&T Pro Am
Date: Feb 1–4, 2024
Players will now make a 430-mile journey down the Pacific coast to Pebble Beach for the upcoming tournament. This event is now a featured event and will include 2 golf courses: Spyglass Hill (par 72 playing 7,041 yards) and Pebble Beach (par 72 playing 6,972 yards). The field will consist of 80 golfers, and this is now a no-cut event. Golfers will play Spyglass Hill once and Pebble Beach 3 times. With Monterrey Peninsula being dropped, we think we can expect a slightly higher winning score in the region of 15-16 under.
The first key statistic we’ll focus on is Strokes Gained: Approach, specifically examining proximity from 75-100 and 100-125 yards. Since there will be numerous wedge shots, the ability to excel in these distance ranges is crucial. The shorter holes also enable players to be conservative off the tee and still have short wedges into many of the greens. These greens, compared to the average on the PGA Tour, are relatively small, amplifying the significance of accurate approach shots. This leads us to our next key stat, Strokes Gained: Around the Green. With small greens and a winning score near 20 under, players cannot afford to drop strokes, making successful recoveries vital.
We will also pay attention to distances on par 4s playing between 350-400 yards and 400-450 yards. Since both courses are relatively short, the ability to score on these shorter par 4s is essential. Additionally, we will factor in strokes gained on courses playing less than 7,200 yards.
Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa greens will be another important stat to consider, as the conversion rates for putts in the 5-15 feet range tend to be below the tour average. Players who can excel in this area should be able to gain an advantage over the field. Considering the tournament’s coastal location, weather conditions may also play a role. Currently, the forecast appears relatively calm, but if the wind picks up, it could present challenges, especially on the small greens.
Key Stats Summary:
- Strokes Gained: Approach, focusing on 75-100 and 100-125 yards
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Par 4 scoring on holes measuring 350-400 yards and 400-450 yards
- Strokes Gained: Courses under 7,200 yards
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Rory Mcilroy @15/2
Returning to the fold and should shine here, this tournament should suit Rory, especially if he’s on his putting game.
Collin Morikawa @20/1 E/W
This should need no explanation. We don’t think he putts well enough to win but we’ll take him at this price to do some damage with his iron game on a short course.
Sungjae Im @35/1 E/W
Yes he is frustrating. But he’s better than this price. Gaining stroked against this field in every category, he should at least be able to contend.
Best Golf Betting Picks, Image Credit: pgatour.com
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