Week 6 Picks:
Pittsburgh +4.5 — Interesting line choice for a matchup that was a two-goal game earlier this season in Madison. Pittsburgh has just two wins on the season, but they were competitive in two of their three losses. Both rosters should have most of their pieces, missing only a couple stars per team. Chris Graber will be making his season debut for Pittsburgh after one of the best plays of last season. Madison is the better team, but these Central division games can often be close between mid-tier teams, so I like Pittsburgh to cover.
Carolina/Dallas o37.5 — Carolina put up 27 against Austin despite Austin having a better roster than Dallas. Carolina is missing some offensive cutters as I’ll explain below, but they have the unique ability to just plug-and-play cutters and not really let it bother them. Weather is really nice so shouldn’t impact the disc. I like this game to break into the 40s.
Salt Lake City -4.5 — Oakland has only played two games this year, both losses but came against relatively good teams in San Diego and Portland. This is a tough draw for Oakland who will be missing two of their best players in Norden and Crawford, plus two more offensive starters in Kissman and Yeagle. Meanwhile SLC will have just about everyone sans Connole. Former DC defender Green will be making his debut for SLC, and they’ll be getting back Martin after a week off at college nationals. Oakland will be traveling from sea level to 4k above sea level in Utah, which is not an insurmountable challenge, but could play a role as the game wears on. Imo it’d take a lot for Oakland to keep this within 3 or 4 goals, especially on the road in front of one of the league’s most vibrant crowds. SLC should win comfortably after a thrilling loss against division-leader Colorado last week.
Atlanta/Tampa u38.5 — This is a value play based on potentially poor conditions in Florida. It doesn’t look like there will be a lot of rain but could be some solid wind. Additionally, Atlanta tends to run zone which forces more horizontal throws and eats up clock. I project Tampa to score 11-15 goals, so Atlanta would just need to score no more than 23 goals to comfortably hit, which is honestly a pretty lofty number to reach in bad conditions. The one concern would be if Atlanta is able to capitalize on some short field turnovers and score some easy fast goals.
Philly ML — Philadelphia has been one of the most resurgent storylines in the league, starting the season 0-3 but by a combined four goals. They went to Montreal to get revenge and blew them out by six goals, then won against Ottawa in their second leg of a back to back. Philly’s first game and loss of the season was a one-point game against Boston, now they get Boston at home, who will have just played the night before and with a depleted crew. Philly’s roster is essentially full-strength roster and they have lots of momentum and confidence. Boston is talented enough that an upset over Philly isn’t impossible, but they definitely have an uphill climb. I like Philly by a couple goals.
Minnesota -4 — Very interesting matchup here as Indianapolis won’t have their top player in Keegan North or one of their top handlers in Xavier Payne. Indy has a veteran group so they tend to play reasonably disciplined and don’t typically get blown out. But this weekend, having already lost their star Carpenter to an injury early on, and now not having North, I’ll be interested to see if they can keep up with Minnesota who is absolutely clicking right now. Minnesota was upset by Chicago in their home opener, but then blew out Dallas in Texas and commanded a several goal lead over Madison on the road, ultimately winning by three. Minnesota will have their star Winnipeg receiver Snider back after a week off, plus collegiate stars Jurek and Roy back in the fold. The Minnesota roster is at near full-strength and playing with momentum. It could be close in the first half but should open up as the game progresses.
New York/Toronto u47.5 — This is a gargantuan line even with Toronto being one of the weaker defensive teams in the league. New York’s two big blowout victories this season ended up with New York scoring 30-31 goals and the loser scoring 17-18 goals. That is right around the line and massive blowouts are far more likely to not happen than they are to occur. Toronto was the victim of one of those blowouts, which I think actually helps the under as they will be at home and hungrier for revenge. Toronto is also playing with a bit of momentum after nearly upsetting DC at home. New York is a step above DC right now so I don’t think they will necessarily keep up with New York, but I don’t think they will let New York go on a frenzy. Additionally, some wind is forecasted which should help create turnovers and kill clock.
Portland -3.5 — Portland was on the losing end of one of the most shocking upsets this frisbee season thus far, getting blown out by 0-5 Seattle after starting the season 3-0. To Seattle’s credit, it was kind of the perfect storm: Seattle was so close in their losses, got some big reinforcements, Portland didn’t have critical pieces, and Seattle was at home. With that in mind, I subscribe to the idea that good teams need to get smacked in the mouth before they can fully reach their potential. Portland’s now had that wake up call and I don’t think they’ll get tossed around again this season. Portland won’t have two offensive weapons in Doi or Daniel Lee, but they’ll get Friedman and Hatchett back who they sorely missed last week. Hayes and Marx continue to be one of the most impressive duos in the division. LA will get Weaver making his 2022 debut, but won’t have their college star Koo. LA really needs every piece they can get if they want to make a push for an upset here. I like Portland to bounce back and win comfortably in front of one of the better crowds in the league.
Portland/LA u45.5 — Under is a little risky given Portland’s offensive firepower, but I think there’s a case to be made for a blowout over LA and LA not likely to break the 20-goal mark. If LA tops out at 18 or 19 goals then Portland would need to top out at like 26 goals to keep this under, which is a pretty high number of goals. Additionally, forecast calls for rain which could add more turnovers and eat up clock.
Colorado -5 — Colorado now leads the division after two thrilling wins against division frontrunners Portland and Salt Lake City. Colorado gets a chance to keep that momentum going against a depleted Oakland team that will have played SLC the night before and likely will not have acclimated to Denver’s elevation. Stearns is one of Oakland’s better players and is listed as Active for SLC but “Dressed” for Colorado which suggests he might not be active for this game, which would sting for Oakland. Colorado will be getting back two collegiate stars in Atkins and Landesman, plus they’ll still have just about every one of their other stars. We haven’t seen Colorado blow anyone out yet, but that could happen here.
Colorado/Oakland o40.5 — I presume this total is based on Colorado being a solid defensive team, and not having super high marks this season. This is a bit misleading though since they’ve battled two of the division’s best teams in two games and their other game was their first AUDL game ever and on the road. The reality is their offense is just as good as their defence, and they should have no part picking apart a gassed Oakland squad. I expect Colorado to reach 24-25+ goals so Oakland would just need to hit 17 to take this over which I think is definitely doable.
Seattle ML — I’m surprised there isn’t a spread for this game given Seattle’s impressive dismantling of Portland last weekend. Sure, the previous meeting against LA was a one-goal Seattle loss, but Seattle had a razor thin roster that weekend and it was their second leg of a back-to-back. LA will not have had much time to rest having played at Portland the night before and then starting this game at an absurd 11 AM local time (maybe travel requirements from LA? Idk). Seattle won’t have quite the roster they did against Portland (no Swanson or Miller, two of their best players), but they still have frisbee veteran Rehder, are getting back Akyuz and Brown on the o-line after a week off, and Tony Venneri will be making his 2022 debut after some impressive statistical performances at college nationals last weekend. It would be a shock for Seattle to crush Portland then turn around and lose to LA at home.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
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