National Football League Tips 2023
NFL Player Props
The 104rd NFL season will get underway on Thu, 7 Sept 2023 and ending Sun, 11 Feb 2024. Here are some of our Favourite outright picks and player props for the season.
Our Picks:
Philadelphia Eagles to win superbowl 58 @8/1
It’s far from a new shout, isn’t it?
The wealthy teams seem to keep amassing talent, and it appears that everyone is willing to let them continue this trend. There’s a strategy in which you aim to maximize the talent on your roster while your young star quarterback is still under a team-friendly rookie contract.
However, in defiance of this conventional wisdom, Howie Roseman seems to have adopted a different mindset, as they continue to acquire veteran players despite having invested significantly in Jalen Hurts.
When you take into account that they boasted a top-five defense in the NFL last season, retained all their key players, and even added two exceptional defensive linemen in the first round of the draft, along with acquiring Albert O from the Broncos and D’Andre Swift from Detroit, it leaves us wondering
New York Jets to make the playoffs @10/13
The headline-grabbing move of the offseason centered around the illustrious career of Aaron Rodgers, a four-time NFL MVP and Super Bowl champion. After an impressive 18-year stint with the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers made a surprising switch to the New York Jets.
In the previous season, the Jets showcased their defensive prowess by ranking fourth in total defense across the NFL. However, their offensive struggles were glaring, placing them seventh-worst in total offense and fourth-worst in points per game. This was largely attributed to a revolving door of quarterbacks, with Zach Wilson’s subpar performance leading the charge.
Despite these challenges, the Jets managed to conclude the season with a 7-10 record and remained in contention for a playoff spot as they approached Week 17. The addition of Aaron Rodgers as their quarterback would likely have solidified their playoff berth.
Rodgers himself had a somewhat lackluster season, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018. While he shouldered some blame for this, he was hindered by a lackluster wide receiver corps, primarily consisting of rookies. Losing Pro Bowl receiver Davante Adams further compounded the offensive struggles. Additionally, the Green Bay Packers’ defense experienced a sharp decline, plummeting from its top-ranked status in 2021 to 17th in 2022.
Hailing from Chico, California, Rodgers has clinched playoff berths in 11 of his 15 seasons. With a formidable defense supporting him and the promising talent of receiver Garrett Wilson, who possesses Pro Bowl potential, Rodgers is poised to make another postseason appearance.
Furthermore, Rodgers has reunited with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who played a pivotal role in his MVP-winning seasons in 2021 and 2022, along with guiding the team to three playoff appearances, including two NFC Championships.
Although New York’s offensive line remains a question mark, and their schedule presents formidable challenges, the presence of a future Hall of Famer, just one year removed from back-to-back MVP awards, should at least secure a playoff berth.
While their schedule may appear daunting, Sharp Football Analysis reveals that the Jets are tied for the best net rest advantage in the NFL. Notably, four out of their five games with a net rest advantage occur after Week 11, which should significantly bolster their playoff aspirations.
Sportsbooks have set the Jets’ win total at 9.5, and it’s worth noting that two AFC teams clinched playoff spots with just nine wins the previous year. Achieving two additional wins and reaching a 9-8 record seems entirely feasible, especially when considering the Jets are listed as the seventh-favorite team to win the Super Bowl.
Player Props:
Trevor Lawrence over 4025 Passing Yards @1/1
Following a turbulent inaugural season for Trevor Lawrence in 2021 under the leadership of Urban Meyer, and experiencing the typical rookie growing pains, the former No. 1 overall draft pick finally hit his stride in 2022, guided by the Super Bowl-winning coach, Doug Pederson.
Lawrence showcased his talent by passing for 4,113 yards in 17 games, averaging an impressive 241.9 yards per contest. According to FantasyPros, when compared to his rookie year, there was a remarkable improvement in his yards per attempt, surging from 5.2 to 7.3, as well as his completion percentage, which climbed from 59.6% in 2021 to an impressive 66.3% in 2022.
The Jacksonville franchise bolstered its offensive arsenal by acquiring former Pro Bowl wide receiver Calvin Ridley, providing Lawrence with yet another dynamic weapon on the outside. The offense also boasts the presence of 1,000-yard receiver Christian Kirk, complemented by talented players such as Zay Jones, tight end Evan Engram, and the versatile pass-catching tailback Travis Etienne Jr.
As Lawrence continued to acclimate himself to the rigors of the NFL, he steered his team to the divisional playoffs, coming tantalizingly close to a victory but ultimately falling short with a narrow loss to the Chiefs by just a touchdown.
David Montgomery over 5.5 Rush TD’s @4/5
In the offseason, the Lions made a significant move by acquiring David Montgomery to step into the shoes left vacant by Jamaal Williams, who had departed for New Orleans.
Notably, Williams led the NFL last year with an impressive 17 rushing touchdowns. While it’s clear that Montgomery won’t replicate those extraordinary numbers, his role within the offense should reasonably allow him to tally at least six rushing touchdowns.
Additionally, Detroit faced the departure of DeAndre Swift to Philadelphia, but they addressed this by selecting running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick in the 2023 draft. Gibbs is expected to handle the pass-catching responsibilities and receive a substantial number of carries. Nevertheless, the offensive strategy is likely to feature a dynamic duo of Gibbs and Montgomery, with Montgomery serving as the primary red zone back, akin to the setup in the previous season.
It’s worth noting that Montgomery has found the end zone six or more times in three out of his four NFL seasons. In 2022, he scored five times, primarily due to sharing the workload with Khalil Herbert and the dual-threat quarterback Justin Fields.
Importantly, with Jared Goff leading the offense and lacking dual-threat capabilities, Montgomery is poised to retain his role and not have opportunities taken away from him.
Chris Olave over 1025 Rec Yard @20/23
Chris Olave, hailing from an illustrious career at Ohio State, was selected as the 11th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft by the New Orleans Saints. His exceptional route-running abilities and overall skill set seamlessly translated to the professional stage, where he made an immediate impact as a rookie, amassing an impressive 72 receptions for 1,042 yards and securing four touchdowns.
What makes this achievement even more remarkable is that Olave achieved these statistics despite facing challenging circumstances at the quarterback position. Jameis Winston commenced the season as the Saints’ starting quarterback but suffered an injury after the first three games. Consequently, the reins were handed over to backup quarterback Andy Dalton, who has since become a journeyman and now finds himself on the roster of the Carolina Panthers.
In spite of these quarterback challenges, the fleet-footed receiver managed to breach the 1,000-yard mark. New Orleans has since made a significant upgrade at the signal-caller position by acquiring Derek Carr from the Raiders. While Carr may not be considered one of the league’s top quarterbacks, he has consistently demonstrated above-average performance and boasts prior Pro Bowl appearances.
With a stable presence under center, Chris Olave is poised for an even more promising sophomore season, where he is expected to surpass the 1,025-yard milestone once again. In fact, some analysts are already heralding his potential to earn a spot in the Pro Bowl.
The National Football League is a professional American football league that consists of 32 teams, divided equally between the American Football Conference and the National Football Conference.
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