Tour Golf Predictions
PGA
Date: Aug 10–13, 2023
TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, is the location for the FedEx St Jude Championship. TPC Southwind is a par 70 course, stretching approximately 7,243 yards, featuring Bermuda greens and Zoysia fairways. In the past, this course hosted the FedEx St Jude Classic until 2018 when it transitioned into the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational. This year, following the discontinuation of the WGC Invitational, the first FedEx Cup event was moved to this course. With ample course history to draw upon, we can gain valuable insights to inform our analysis. The tournament includes the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup Standings, and the top 70 after this week will advance to the BMW Championship. Notably, Tommy Fleetwood will not be participating in the event.
Let’s begin by discussing the course layout. TPC Southwind presents various challenges with bunkers and water hazards, offering plenty of opportunities to encounter trouble. Historically, it is not a course where low scoring dominates, making it less forgiving for players trying to compensate for mistakes with birdies. The key strategy is to prioritize hitting fairways and greens while avoiding overly aggressive play on specific holes. Considering the potential pitfalls, it will be important to factor in the stat of Bogey avoidance in my analysis. Additionally, since numerous greens are guarded by bunkers, I will include the metric of sand saves in my model.
Both driving accuracy and Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentages are notably below the tour average at this course. The fairways are relatively narrow, and data suggests that missing the fairway can be penalizing. Hence, driving accuracy (fairways gained) becomes a significant stat to consider, along with GIR gained. The ideal players would be accurate drivers who can consistently hit a high number of greens. While the green complexes are not overly challenging, making birdie putts carries added significance. However, players will inevitably miss greens, emphasizing the importance of scrambling and short game skills.
Now, let’s focus on the statistics that hold great importance at this venue: Strokes Gained: Approach and Ball Striking. In previous tournaments, we have witnessed players succeed and achieve high placements without exceptional putting skills. Nevertheless, strong approach play is typically a prerequisite for contention. Two crucial approach distances are in the ranges of 150-175 and 175-200 yards, accounting for nearly half of the approach shots. While putting won’t be heavily weighted in my analysis, it is advantageous to identify players who excel on Bermuda greens, as they can exploit the relatively manageable putting surfaces.
Our Picks:
Scottie Scheffler. @13/2
He is number one in the world for a reason.
Rory McIlroy @9/1
If he drives as well as we know he can he will be very hard to beat.
Rickie Fowler. @30/1
Back to his absolute best and we think he could close out the season in style.
Most Betting firms paying 8+ places so back e/w.
Best Golf Betting Picks, Image Credit: golf.com
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