UFC 290 Volkanovski Vs Rodriguez Betting Predictions
Volkanovski Vs Rodriguez: Rodriguez KO
We believe there is a higher probability, around 60%, that this fight will finish inside the distance (ITD). Volk has a tendency to go to decision, but there are clear indications that there is a good chance of a finish here. Yair’s takedown defense (TDD) and ground game have improved, but they still have noticeable weaknesses, particularly his inclination to play guard, as seen in the Emmett fight. In this matchup, I expect Volk to utilize his wrestling skills and be willing to engage in Yair’s guard in order to land ground and pound strikes. Volk’s ground and pound is incredibly brutal, and Yair has previously shown vulnerability to giving up bad positions against Holloway. The difference between Max and Volk’s top mount positions is substantial, and if Volk begins unleashing strikes from that position, Yair will likely find himself in trouble.
Nevertheless, we have also witnessed Volk in precarious situations before. He has been dropped by Holloway, Mendes, and wobbled by Islam. Yair possesses the ability to land devastating shots, and he has made significant improvements recently. His defensive skills are better, he exits exchanges more effectively, and he was not driven out of the pocket as much against Holloway. I believe Yair will be more than willing to exchange strikes with Volk, and he should have opportunities to target the body with kicks throughout the fight. If Yair manages to land a head kick or switch up his attacks, it’s doubtful that Volk, or anyone else for that matter, would be able to withstand it. I don’t give Yair much chance of winning by decision or submission, so I think the gap between his chances of a knockout victory and his overall moneyline is too small. While Volk can certainly secure a ground and pound finish, it’s also worth considering the value in betting on a decision or a submission victory for Volk.
Moreno Vs Pantoja: Moreno ML
We believe Moreno has a significant advantage in terms of momentum in this matchup. Pantoja hasn’t been as active as Moreno, who has been facing top-level opponents. Since their first two fights, we think Moreno has made substantial improvements in both skill and mindset. One aspect that I see causing problems for Pantoja is Moreno’s jab, which we believe will effectively keep Pantoja at a distance throughout the fight. Additionally, when Pantoja attempts to launch aggressive attacks, we anticipate Moreno landing significant counter-shots. Moreno is also defensively sound on the ground, and we believe he will be well-prepared to defend against Pantoja’s back attacks. While Pantoja may have his moments, we expect Moreno to take control of the fight clearly from the second round onwards. Our prediction is that Moreno will either win by unanimous decision or secure a championship round knockout.
Whittaker Vs Du Plessis: Whittaker ML
We was curious about the reasons behind Whittaker’s high odds (yes, we said high at 1.27) and then we realized that Du Plessis hasn’t suffered any losses for quite some time, which probably explains it.
Du Plessis has defeated Till (which is amusing) and an older Brunson, both of whom are well-known fighters but not necessarily considered top-tier. He also beat Tavares, but I personally didn’t bother watching that fight. The Brunson fight is quite entertaining, particularly in the second round where they exchanged heavy blows. However, apart from those victories, Du Plessis had several bouts cancelled during the COVID-19 pandemic, so his last loss dates back to 2019. This doesn’t necessarily mean he has accomplished a great deal.
Du Plessis can be likened to a highly skilled street brawler, but Whittaker will dominate him in every aspect. Whittaker’s skill level and cardio are on a completely different level. If this were a 5-round fight, Whittaker would almost certainly stop Du Plessis 99% of the time. With only 3 rounds, there’s a possibility that Du Plessis could survive, but the outcome is heavily in Whittaker’s favour.
Turner Vs Hooker: Turner Sub
We decided to play it safe by betting on the Hooker/Turner fight to finish inside the distance (FDGTD). In our opinion, this is one of the more secure opportunities on the card. It seems like Hooker and Turner are heading in different directions in their careers. Turner appears to be quicker, more precise, and has improved his ability to control the distance between him and his opponents. We believe the knockout line is undervalued due to the submission line. If Turner manages to secure a submission victory, it’s likely to come from a combination of strikes followed by a submission hold, commonly referred to as a “club and sub” approach.
Nickel vs Woodburn: Woodburn KO
While we acknowledge that Nickal is the superior fighter and likely to emerge as the winner, we believe Woodburn’s only realistic chance of victory is through a knockout. Woodburn is well aware of being considered the underdog in this matchup. Although the likelihood of a knockout victory is not high, the opportunity of the odds +2000 certainly appealing. Bo Nickal is undeniably the better fighter, but even the best fighters in MMA are susceptible to being knocked out.
Lawler Vs Price: Lawler ML
Retirement fights can be nerve-wracking, but we find this line to be a bit unreasonable. It’s worth noting that Lawler was heavily favoured in certain places (such as Pinny and FD) against Barbarena. He was actually on his way to winning two rounds before Barbarena increased the pressure and set a pace that Lawler couldn’t keep up with. In that fight, Lawler showcased an exceptional jab, great counter-striking, and impressive speed in close quarters. Comparatively, we don’t believe Price possesses the same level of durability, discipline, or ability to maintain a high pace as Barbarena. Price tends to throw fewer strikes, he’s content with engaging in slugfests, and he usually absorbs more shots than he delivers. When the fight isn’t going his way, he tends to plod forward and swing wildly. Additionally, we have serious doubts about Price’s chin at this stage. If Lawler performs as he did in the Barbarena fight, we believe he will land the more effective shots in close range. It’s true that Lawler is now 41 years old, and retirement fights have often resulted in disappointing performances, but we find it difficult to reconcile the difference in odds between this matchup and the Barbarena fight.
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