Golf Preview
PGA Tour
Date: Thu, 13 Jun 2023 – Sun, 16 Jun 2024
Players head to Pinehurst, NC to take on the beast that is Pinehurst No. 2. This is a Donald Ross design par 70 that will play approximately 7,543 yards. Pinehurst hosted the 2014 US Open which saw Martin Kaymer win with a score of 9 under while only 2 other players in the field were able to finish under par. The cut line will be top 60 and ties. The greens avg 6,500 sq ft but they tend to play much smaller. Fried Egg did a great video on this course in which Geoff Ogilvy called these greens “upside down saucers.” Once you get closer to the middle of these greens, they tend to be less complicated and more flat. These Bermuda greens should be rolling smooth and true which could really lend an advantage to the top putters in this field. The avg width of the fairway in the landings areas is about 35-45 yards and they are expecting this course to play firm and fast. There is little to no rough to speak of and the fairways are lined with sandy native areas where lies will truly be luck of the draw. I think we can expect a winning score of around 5-6 under.
Now let’s talk about the stats. First up we actually want to talk about Strokes Gained: Around the green and Bogey Avoidance. These usually aren’t the stats we start with, but were placing more importance than usual on both of these. First up is SG: Around the green: we’ve heard many different people talk about how tough it will be for guys to hold these greens with their approach shots. When everyone is saying the same thing, we should pay attention. This means even the best approach players are going to be missing greens this week. Since there’s no rough, all of these shots around the green will be from tight fairway lies or bunkers. With the winning score likely to be very low, we want to target guys who can hang around even par and maybe a run over the weekend. This is where we’ll be able to find some guys deeper down the odds board that could make some noise.
If the scoring conditions end up being as tough as we think, there is a very real chance Scottie wins by 5 strokes. There is also a very real chance that his elite approach doesn’t separate him at this course the way it does others because of how difficult these greens can be on approach. He has been putting much better, but if he spends enough time having to get up and down, we question his ability to hit those 10-15 footers to save par. We will mostly likely be playing the “without Scottie” betting markets this week.
~Key Stats~
Strokes Gained: Around the green
Bogey Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Approach
Fairways Gained
Scrambling
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green
Our Picks:
Scottie Scheffler @3/1
The most likely scenario is that his elite approach game will give him way more birdie opportunities than anyone else and so even if he doesn’t putt great, it won’t matter. Were tired of getting beat by him, so even though it’s an incredibly short number were just going to play the best golfer in the world on an incredibly difficult course and hope if he loses it’s to one of our other bets.
Bryson DeChambeau @18/1
We went back and forth on Bryson here but ultimately he’s played great in 2 straight majors and this is very much a thinker’s course. His short game is a concern for us but he’s also an excellent putter and we would not be surprised at all to see him using putter off the greens quite a bit. He’s also going to be hungry after coming so close at the PGA Championship. If he’s able to hit fairways he’s going to have much shorter approach shots than most of the field. That combined with his apex height could end up being a huge advantage.
Tommy Fleetwood @28/1
Continuing our trend backing Fleetwood, He has great approach play and will thrive here we think. He keeps knocking on the door and this would be a massive scalp.
Best PGA Golf Betting Picks and Tips, Image Credit: Marca.com
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