PGA Tour
World Golf Tips
Date: May 30–Jun 2, 2024
Next up is the RBC Canadian Open, at the Hamilton Golf and Country Club in Ancaster, Ontario. The course is a 7,084 yard Harry Colt design that will play to a par of 70. The course was renovated in 2019 after that year’s RBC Canadian Open. The course has three 9 hole tracks but the pros will be playing the South and West tracks. It features bentgrass greens that average 6,000 sq ft and the rough is a tall and thick Poa with Fescue further off the fairway and around the bunkers. The last time the Canadian Open was held here was in 2019 when Rory Mcilroy absolutely dominated and won by 7 strokes. It doesn’t seem like they made any significant layout changes during the renovation so we do think we can rely on the stats from that event.
Historically, the Canadian Open has witnessed relatively low winning scores. Considering the shorter length of this course, it’s reasonable to anticipate a winning score exceeding 20 under par. Based on our understanding, we foresee two primary strategies golfers may employ to tackle this course. The first approach is the “bomb and gouge” strategy, capitalizing on the course’s shorter nature. However, the success of this strategy will largely depend on the severity of the rough. The second approach involves utilizing woods and irons off the tee to ensure accurate positioning and favorable angles into the greens. Even with a more conservative tee shot, players would likely face short iron approaches to most greens. Naturally, the best drivers of the golf ball may not need to hold back and can still employ the driver effectively, similar to Keith Mitchell’s style. Thus, we will evenly consider players based on these two expected methods of attack.
For our initial model, the key statistics we will focus on are Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Approach (particularly within the 75-125-yard range), Opportunities Gained, and Birdies Gained.
When a PGA Tour event features seven par 4s ranging from 350 to 430 yards, along with a 490-yard par 5, it’s reasonable to expect the players to post low scores. Especially when there appear to be limited hazards compelling layups to longer second shots.
Our Picks:
Tommy Fleetwood @16/1 E/W
Fleetwood will come here fresh and after knocking a few times will look to hit the top 5 this week and really get his season up and running.
Corey Connors @22/1 E/W
With most firms paying 5+ places Connors offers great value.
Other Picks
Sam Burns @25/1
Tom Kim @33/1
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