PGA Tour
Golf Tips
Date: Apr 18-21, 2024
After a thrilling Masters tournament that showcased impressive rounds of golf and remarkable performances, the action now shifts to the RBC Heritage. A short 2.5-hour trip takes the players to Hilton Head, where they will compete at Harbour Town Golf Links, a par 71 course spanning approximately 7,121 yards. This classic Pete Dye design presents unique challenges, emphasizing the importance of taking the right angles to approach the small green complexes for scoring opportunities. With 43 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking expected to participate, it promises to be a highly competitive event.
When reviewing the key stats for success at the RBC Heritage, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Putting stand out as critical factors. The ability to position shots correctly into the greens is paramount. Driving accuracy holds significance here, while driving distance takes a back seat. This suggests that players understand the importance of precision and strategically adjust their tee shots to ensure optimal angles for approaching the challenging greens. Additionally, the rough will be grown out this year, placing an even greater emphasis on hitting fairways. Historically, this event favors players who excel in course management, possess solid approach play, and are not necessarily long hitters.
Examining specific distance stats, we find that nearly half of the approach shots fall within the 150-200 yard range, with the 175-200 yard range exceeding the tour average by 7%. Three of the four par 3 holes also fall into this range, making it a key focus area. Additionally, five par 4s on the course measure between 400-450 yards, including a few easier scoring opportunities. Weather conditions can influence play, so keeping an eye on the weather report leading up to the event is advisable.
Lastly, we should consider Bogey Avoidance and Sand Saves due to Pete Dye’s signature bunkering and the presence of water hazards. Given the difficulty of hitting greens, scrambling skills will come into play. Course navigators who can avoid trouble and excel in approach play, particularly within the mentioned yardage ranges, should be prioritized. It is also worth considering players who have a track record of performing well on Pete Dye-designed courses.
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Approach, with a focus on proximity from 150-175 and 175-200 yards
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Par 4 scoring from 400-450 yards
- Bogey Avoidance
- Good Drives Gained
Our Picks:
Patrick Cantlay, 20/1 ew6.
Best course history of anyone in the field, 4 top3 finishes in 6 starts at Hilton Head is incredible. Similar to his record at TPC Summerlin, just hasn’t won here yet. He doesn’t rate out that well statistically over the past 24/36 rounds mostly due to some outlier weeks, but I’m giving weight to his long-term form. Should’ve won already this season at Riv but got a tummyache on the weekend.
Tommy Fleetwood, 25/1 ew5.
Tommy has 133 starts on the pga tour and won exactly 0 of them. He is more due than the Washington Generals. Similar to Cantlay in that his stats are thrown off by some outlier events earlier this year, but his longer-term and very-short term (L8) stats make him a great fit here. Positive player from 150-200 yards, top10 for SG arg/scrambling, T15, T10 in his last two starts at this course, T7, T3 in his last two events.
Shane Lowry, 50/1 ew5.
Almost got a 66/1 but the book changed the odds as I tried to place the bet. Even at 50/1 it’s a solid price. He was 33/1 here last year when it was a full-field event with a cut. He’s in better form than this time last year, and the field is easier to beat this year than last with 70 fewer players. Still an accurate driver, great from 175-200 yards and around the greens. 3 top10s in his last 5 starts here.
*Most Betting sites paying 5+ places so E/W advised*
The RBC Heritage, known for much of its history as the Heritage Classic or simply The Heritage, is a PGA Tour event in South Carolina, first played 54 years ago in 1969. It is currently played in mid-April, the week after The Masters in Augusta, Georgia. Image Credit: fivelivenews.com
0 Comments