PGA Golf
Golf Tips
Date: Feb 22–25, 2024
We are headed to Vallarta, Mexico for the 2024 Mexico Open, previously known as the Mexico Championship. This tournament returns to Vidanta Vallarta for the second consecutive year, providing us with some insights based on last year’s debut. The course, designed by Greg Norman, is a par 71 stretching 7,456 yards and features paspalum fairways, rough, and greens. Notably, players can enjoy scenic views of the Ameca River and the Sierra Madre mountains.
Reviewing the leaderboard from the previous year, it appeared that longer hitters had an advantage at this event. However, what stood out in the statistics was the significance of Ball Striking. Interestingly, Strokes Gained: Driving was nearly as important as Strokes Gained: Approach, which is not often the case. Last year, the average driving distance exceeded the tour average by a remarkable 13 yards, while driving accuracy and GIR% were close to the tour average. This suggests that the fairways are relatively easy to hit, allowing players to unleash their drives.
Approach shots from distances of 200 yards or more accounted for a remarkable 42% of the shots, indicating that this range deserves significant attention. This is mainly due to the presence of a few longer par 4s, two par 3s playing over 200 yards, and two par 5s that can be reached in two shots. Additionally, there are two very long par 5s, with one of them being reachable only for the extremely long hitters. Given the high birdie rates on all four par 5s, scoring well on these holes will be crucial.
Considering that players have already experienced this course, we anticipate lower scores this year, with the winning score projected to be around 19-20 under par. In line with the expectation of players going low, we will be paying attention to Opportunities Gained, as we seek players who can keep up with the birdie fest. Bunkers are likely to play a role once again, so incorporating Sand Saves into the analysis will be beneficial.
Key Stats:
- Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, with an emphasis on distance
- Strokes Gained: Approach, focusing on proximity from 200+ yards
- Sand Saves
- Opportunities Gained
Betting Picks:
Tony Finau @6/1
Milton Pouha “Tony” Finau, an American professional golfer on the PGA Tour, has had a solid start to the year despite fading in recent events. We anticipate a bounce-back performance from him at this tournament.
Alex Smalley @70/1
Smalley is a rising star in professional golf, boasting one of the most impressive careers in NCAA history. After excelling in the North Carolina high school ranks and attending Duke University, he has shown immense potential. He’s definitely due at least a place.
Jake Knapp @50/1
We’ve been planning on betting Knapp for a while. We probably would’ve bet him even if he was 25/1, he’s a perfect course fit.
Back Each Way on higher odds as most betting firms paying 5+ places.
The Mexican Open, also known as the Mexico Open and Abierto Mexicano de Golf, is the national open golf tournament of Mexico. Image Credit: mexicopost.com
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