PGA Tour Golf
Jan 11–14, 2024
Players will be making their way to Honolulu for the Sony Open, which will be held at Wai’alae Country Club (WCC). WCC is a par 70 course, spanning approximately 7,050 yards. Nestled between the majestic Ko’olau mountain range and the picturesque Pacific Coast, this course offers a stunning backdrop for players and spectators alike. It provides an opportunity for players to display their skills while treating the audience to breathtaking views throughout the round. WCC is known as a second-shot course, with fairways that can be challenging to hit, but the greens are relatively more accessible compared to the tour average. However, the weather conditions play a crucial role in determining the course’s difficulty. In calm conditions, we can anticipate winning scores around 20 under par. However, if the wind picks up, as witnessed in Cam Smith’s 2020 victory, the course becomes a completely different and more demanding challenge, resulting in lower scores.
The 17th hole, known as the Sony Open Fire-Bird, is the course’s signature hole and a highlight worth tuning in for. It features a classic Redan-styled green, sloping from the front right to the back left, with bunkers strategically placed to capture both short and long shots. This Scottish links-style design forces players to play away from the hole to achieve proximity. If the winds intensify, this hole becomes one of the most challenging on the course, promising exciting viewing for fans.
Now, let’s delve into the key statistics we’ll be focusing on for this tournament. Previous results indicate that Strokes Gained: Approach is one of the most vital statistics for success in this event. As mentioned earlier, WCC is a second-shot course, making SG: Approach a crucial factor in player performance. Additionally, we will pay close attention to proximity from 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards since nearly half of the approach shots fall within these distances.
Accuracy off the tee holds significance on this course, given that it falls below the tour average. Therefore, we will consider Good Drives in our statistical model. Par 5 scoring will also be essential due to the presence of only two par 5 holes, which happen to be the easiest on the course. With eagle rates exceeding 3% on the 18th hole and over 6% on the 9th hole, it is advantageous to target players who can capitalize on these scoring opportunities.
Lastly, the greens at WCC are Bermuda grass, and winners at this event often exhibit exceptional putting performances (as seen with Deki last year). Therefore, we will lean toward players known for their proficiency with the putter, particularly on Bermuda greens.
Key Stats: SG: Approach, Proximity 150-175 and 175-200 yards, Par 4 Scoring, Par 3 Scoring from 175-200 yards, Good Drives, Eagles Gained.
It’s worth noting that 7 out of the last 8 winners have competed in the Sentry Tournament of Champions the week prior, so this could be a factor to consider.
Now, onto our picks for the tournament, with most firms paying 6+ places:
Justin Rose @30/1
Rose is a solid player on approach shots, he finds the fairway normally with ease, which is more important than length at this course, he’s fine on the green. Hasn’t played the course since 16-17, but finished runner up after not playing it for 5 years, has finished top 20 in 4/5 outings.
Andrew Putnam @35/1
Putnam is another player who has great approach shots and good with the putter on Bermuda greens. Ok so his not great at finding fairways which could be an issue. Two top 5 finishes at Waialae including runner up last year. Odds are simply too long for us to pass on.
Chris Kirk @20/1
Kirk is quiet a safe looking each way bet here, he’s all around play will suit this course and his good with the putter.
Best Golf Betting Picks and Predictions, Image Credit: pgatour.com
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