UFC Fight Night
MMA Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green is an upcoming mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that will take place on October 7, 2023, at the UFC Apex facility in Enterprise, Nevada, part of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Area, United States.
Main Card:
Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green 155 lbs
Joe Pyfer vs. A. Razak Alhassan 185 lbs
Alex Morono vs. Joaquin Buckley 170 lbs
Drew Dober vs. Ricky Glenn 155 lbs
Philipe Lins vs. Ion Cutelaba 205 lbs
Prelims:
Bill Algeo vs. A. Hernandez 145 lbs
K. Kowalkiewicz vs. Diana Belbiţă 115 lbs
Johnny Munoz Jr. vs. Aoriqileng 135 lbs
Kanako Murata vs. V. Demopoulos 115 lbs
Nate Maness vs. Mateus Mendonça 125 lbs
M. De La Rosa vs. JJ Aldrich 125 lbs
Our Picks:
Ion Cutelaba ML @4/6
Two of cutebala’s recent losses are to ranked fighters and he wasn’t even looking bad in them. Plus he absolutely mauled Boser, so why wouldn’t we back him.
Montana ML @8/11
This fight is a tough one to call, but the value is with Montana De La Rosa at plus money if you’re looking for a side to bet. However, the best way to bet this fight is to take the fight to go the distance, but were degens and prefer the value. (Since posting odds have shifted in Montana’s favour)
Drew Dober vs Ricky Glenn – Fight to go the distance NO @5/12
It’s pretty hard to see Ricky Glenn pulling the upset after how bad he was against Giagos in his last fight. The fight only lasted 1:35, but Glenn looked slow and sloppy and it cost him as he got knocked out.
Dober’s power should get through to Glenn’s chin, and unless Glenn has figured out how to hit as hard at Matt Frevola did in Dober’s last loss, we don’t see a path to victory for him unless Glenn can somehow implement the wrestling over three rounds.
Bill Algeo ML @8/11
Really good matchmaking here, and the odds are spot on in my opinion. Bill Algeo is 3-1 in his last four, but the loss was when he injurred his shoulder in the third round against Andre Fili.
Algeo can dish it out, but can get lit up at times as well, but we do like him to win this fight. We believe he’ll have a takedown or two in this fight, and just haven’t liked how bad Hernandez has looked with striking defense.
Buckley ML @10/17
Morono has good movement, and decent striking, but were a believer in Buckley at this weight class. Morono has one KO win in his last 10 fights and that was against the corpse of Donald Cerrone so we don’t think he can tough Buckley hard enough to slow him down.
Joe Pyfer vs Abdul Razak Alhassan – Under 2.5 Rounds @1/4
Alhassan needs his opponents to be flat-footed to land his big shots, and Pyfer won’t just stand still. The one worry could be Pyfer’s cardio as we haven’t seen a long fight from him, but with how hard these two strike we don’t think this will go into later rounds.
Fight Night Main Event
Grant Dawson vs Bobby Green
Pick: Dawson ML @1/4
Dawson via Submission @4/5
The biggest question in this fight is will Grant Dawson be able to get a hole of Bobby Green, wrestle him down to the ground, and keep him there. If he can, it will be a walk in the park for Dawson.
If Green can work his jab to keep Dawson at distance, and stuff the first couple takedowns, Green has a really good chance to win a striking battle. In our humble opinion, we don’t think he has a chance to stop Dawson’s takedowns.
Dawson has been dominating his fights as he is 8-0-1 in the UFC, and he beat elite wrestler Mark Madsen, and he just had his most impressive performane to date by dominating Damir Ismafulov, handing him his second loss ever.
Bobby Green get credit for his great takedown defense, but he hasn’t fought anyone like Grant Dawson (I’m ignoring the Makhachev fight that he took on a couple days notice), and he’s 3-4 in his last seven with two of his wins being against Al Iaquinta in his retirement fight, and Tony Feruson who should’ve retired several fights ago.
Best MMA Tips and Picks, Image Credit: Sportskeda
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