PGA Golf
Golf Tips
Date: May 4–7, 2023
We continue our winning streak with Tony, holding off a strong challenge from Rahm and cashing an 8.5-1 ticket. Now, we shift our focus to the Wells Fargo Championship, which makes its return to Quail Hollow after a one-year break. Interestingly, we haven’t provided a write-up for this course before, so let’s delve into it right away!
Quail Hollow is a challenging par 71 course spanning 7,538 yards, often regarded as one of the toughest on the tour. Upon analyzing the course, we immediately notice that driving accuracy is significantly lower here, almost 9% below the tour average. Additionally, the Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage is down by over 4%. One might assume that players are hitting long drives without worrying about the rough, but that isn’t the case. So, what can we infer from these statistics? It seems that players opt for the “bomb and gauge” approach, trying to leave themselves with shorter shots into the greens. With six par 4s playing in the 450-500 yard range, another alternative is to use less club off the tee to stay in the fairway and then tackle longer irons into the greens. Therefore, if players aren’t long hitters, accuracy and proficiency with long irons become crucial. However, if they can bomb it accurately off the tee, it’s a significant advantage on this course.
Next, we turn our attention to Strokes Gained: Approach, specifically focusing on shots from 175+ yards. Over 50% of approach shots will be from this distance, including three par 3s falling within that range. Furthermore, the gap between Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Approach is not significant, so instead of examining those statistics separately, we’ll consider Ball Striking as a whole. Proximity to the hole is higher than the tour average, but so are the instances of 3-putts, indicating that Strokes Gained: Putting will also play a role.
We can anticipate a winning score around 13-14 under par, and the weather forecast for the weekend looks favorable. Given the course’s difficulty, there will inevitably be bogeys, double bogeys, and possibly a few triples. The key is to minimize mistakes and capitalize on the holes that are relatively easier. Therefore, we’ll factor in Fairways Gained and Opportunities Gained when developing our model.
Key Stats:
- Ball Striking
- Driving Distance
- Fairways Gained
- Opportunities Gained
- Approach Game: Proximity from 175+
Betting Picks:
- Viktor Hovland @22/1: Viktor Hovland, a Norwegian professional golfer on the PGA Tour, has an impressive track record, including winning the 2018 U.S. Amateur and becoming the first Norwegian to win on both the PGA Tour and the European Tour. He has picked up multiple PGA Tour victories, showcasing his talent and potential.
- Tony Finau @14/1: Tony Finau demonstrated his brilliance last week and will carry the momentum into the Wells Fargo Championship. With his recent form, he is a worthy consideration for an each-way pick.
- Max Homa @28/1: Max Homa, an American professional golfer on the PGA Tour, had a notable college career, winning the individual 2013 NCAA Division I Men’s Golf Championship. He has already secured six victories on the PGA Tour, highlighting his capabilities.
The Wells Fargo Championship is a professional golf tournament in North Carolina on the PGA Tour. Held in early May at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, it has attracted some of the top players on the tour.
Image Credit: wcnc.com
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