Israel Adesanya – Submission Round 3 (In a battle between two of the most technical strikers in the Middleweight division, the emergence of Israel Nurmagomedov may throw a spanner in the works. The Last Stylebender is best known for his buttery counter-striking but desperate times call for desperate measures. After Alex Pereira secured a shock takedown in the second round, Adesanya dominated on the mat with almost four minutes of control time in round three. Of course, this is all irrelevant if Pereira is capable of landing his left hook once again. Pereira’s natural one-shot power can never be written off – nor his exceptional shot selection. Even so, it is difficult to back a fighter with such little MMA experience. The old adage of ‘styles make fights’ is a fair argument, but Adesanya’s grappling cannot be overlooked)
Gilbert Burns – Decision (Gilbert Burns is a flawed fighter that has seen his strengths paper over his weaknesses at the top of the chain. A violently powerful puncher, Burns operates more as a gruelling slugger than a technical maestro. Against an ageing veteran, it is a style that could pay dividends. A major key to Burns’ victory will be his success in mixing in takedowns. The Brazilian is a wonderful submission artist but has struggled with taking opponents to the mat – evidenced by his career 35% TD accuracy)
Rob Font – Decision (Font owns a phenomenal jab, a vital weapon against Adrian Yanez after considering the distress caused by the limited Randy Costa. Yanez’s natural power could be the tipping point in exchanges, though – following the same formula as Aldo/Vera. Over just three rounds, Font should outwork Yanez before the puzzle can be cracked, although knockdowns swinging the rounds can never be written off in a Font)
Kevin Holland – Decision (Kevin Holland retired after the Khamzat Chimaev debacle, only to return for a four-round arsewhooping to a resurgent Stephen Thompson. Never before in his career has Holland been so hopelessly picked apart on the feet. The long counterpuncher remains a creative, dynamic striker although his mental now has to be questioned. Still, Ponzinibbio is a fighter that has struggled to adapt his style to match his waning athleticism)
Raul Rosas Jr – Submission Round 2 (Match-makers will have to play a key role in bleeding in their prospect, athletically capped at his young age. The Mexican Bantamweight is still learning how to use his reach effectively on the feet. But, as seen last time out, Rosas Jr is viperlike in his pursuit of submissions. Rodriguez sits down heavily into his shots but that will prove to the benefit of Rosas Jr’s wrestling and although the Wisconsin fighter’s grappling defence has improved since his debut – he will struggle to survive for extended periods off his back)
Chris Curtis – Decision (Chris Curtis’ savvy experience on the feet and composure countering in the pocket will prove a deadly combination if Gastelum opts to stay standing. Curtis may own a perfect 100% TDD so far in the UFC, but Gastelum’s granite chin and surprising burst of speed could break that record. Unless Gastelum has drastically changed his approach after a nigh two-year lay-off, this could be a painful night)
Luana Pinheiro – Decision (Waterson-Gomez’s 1-4 record in her last five fights is deceiving – coming against ferocious competition like Amanda Lemos, Carla Esparza and Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Although I expect Pinheiro’s power to stamp her mark on the rounds, Waterson-Gomez’s surprisingly effective clinch striking could cause an upset)
Gerald Meerschaert – Submission Round 2 (Meerschaert continues to dig deep in his twilight to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat – a trend that ensures his longevity as the esteemed Middleweight gatekeeper. GM3’s hands have been polished over the past few years but he would be well advised to avoid extended periods of striking with Pyfer’s heavy hands. Bodybagz needed just four minutes to spark out Alen Amedovski in his POTN debut last September)
Karl Williams – TKO Round 1 (Karl Williams, a short-notice replacement for Chris Barnett, will look to pick up his sixth win in a row. Opponent, Chase Sherman, has won just once in his past six fights, a late KO over the limited Jared Vanderaa that did little to inspire hope of future success. Sherman has struggled to pace himself in contests, keep himself standing and impose his size in any area of the fight. Expecting Williams to have free reign on the mat over Sherman)
Lupita Godinez – Decision (Sitting on a four-fight slide at Flyweight, Calvillo has made the jump back to Strawweight in an attempt to reignite her UFC career. Loopy Godinez, despite her size disadvantage, will force the fight to the mat eventually. Tipping Loopy’s hard pace and work rate to earn her the nod on the scorecards)
Ignacio Bahamondes – Submission Round 1 (Trey Ogden is a strong wrestler and grappler, but he has hardly sold himself as a ‘must watch’ fighter to fans. Unfortunately, it is likely a lack of pop in the Samurai Ghost’s hands that stops him from climbing the ladder. There are question marks over La Jaula’s TDD against better quality opposition, but his submission threat could leave Ogden suffering a career third loss via guillotine choke)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke – TKO Round 1 (Garcia has no time for defence, dropping both hands and charging forward with powerful overhands. It is enjoyable and effective work against limited strikers, but Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is an experienced counter-puncher. Although much of that experience stems from the Asian regional scene, Garcia isn’t nuanced enough on the feet to catch Wolverine by surprise)
Jaqueline Amorim – Submission Round 1 (Undefeated newcomer, Jaqueline Amorim, enters her UFC debut with deserved hype as the former IBJFF world champion and LFA Strawweight Champion. Sam Hughes must keep herself standing against Amorim – a tough ask for a fighter who hit the mat five times in her last outing. The former track athlete is a durable cookie, though. A kind introduction for Amorim into the UFC)
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