PGA Tour
Open Golf Picks
Date: Mar 30–Apr 2, 2023
With the Masters just around the corner, there is one more tournament to discuss—the Valero Texas Open in San Antonio. Taking place at the Oaks Course in TPC San Antonio, this challenging par 72 layout spans 7,438 yards. Designed by Greg Norman, the course features Bermuda greens, strategically positioned greenside bunkers, and a focus on rewarding golfers with excellent ball-striking abilities.
Let’s focus on a key approach distance. Three of the four par 5s in the course measure 590+ yards, making it challenging for many players to reach them in two shots. As a result, we can expect a significant number of approach shots from the range of 75-125 yards, accounting for approximately 22% of the total. Additionally, there are four relatively short par 4s that will also require approach shots from this distance. Therefore, it is crucial to target players who excel with their wedge play, as they will have ample opportunities to score.
Given the below-average Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage at this course, the Short Game becomes another important statistic to consider. Jordan Spieth, known for his exceptional short game, has achieved considerable success here, reinforcing the significance of this aspect. Course history carries more weight than in an average event, likely due to the importance of the short game and the ability to navigate the greenside bunkers effectively. Thus, Sand Saves will also be factored into the analysis. While long and accurate drives are favorable, they are not a deal-breaker since both longer and shorter hitters have performed well at this course. The rough is not overly penalizing, so the general rule of thumb remains that longer drives tend to be advantageous.
In addition, it’s worth noting that there was a Korn Ferry Tour event held at this course in 2020, won by Davis Riley. Notable high finishers from that event in this week’s field include Pendrith, Smotherman, Ben Martin, Lee Hodges, Nick Hardy, and Max McGreevy.
Last but not least, we will be targeting strong Ball Strikers. Given the importance of Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and the below-average GIR percentage, golfers with solid ball-striking abilities should have an advantage in this tournament.
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained: Approach, with a focus on 75-125 yards
- Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
- Strokes Gained: Short Game
- Sand Saves
- Par 4 Scoring on holes of 400-450 yards
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Rickie Fowler @18/1: For Fowler, the stakes are clear – he must win or miss out on a spot in the Masters. The qualification for the Masters via Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) locks after the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play this week, and Fowler is currently outside the top 50 required for an invitation. Expect a strong performance from him as he seeks to secure a spot in the first major of the year.
J.J. Spaun @33/1: The defending champion from last year’s Valero Texas Open, J.J. Spaun, returns to see if he can replicate his success. Last year’s victory marked his first PGA Tour win and secured his entry into the Masters 2022. He will be motivated to perform well once again.
Corey Connors @20/1: Corey Conners, a Canadian professional golfer currently competing on the PGA Tour, is our final pick. He has played on various tours, including PGA Tour Canada, PGA Tour Latinoamérica, and the Web.com Tour. With his strong ball-striking abilities, Connors is well-suited to excel in this tournament.
Most Bookmakers paying 6+ Places so E/W Advised.
The Texas Open, known as the Valero Texas Open for sponsorship reasons, is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour, played near San Antonio, Texas. It dates back 101 years to 1922, when it was first called the Texas Open; San Antonio-based Valero Energy Corporation took over naming rights in 2002.
Image Credit: valerotexasopen.com
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