PGA Tour
Golf Tips
Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2023 – Sun, 26 Mar 2023
The WGC March Play is set to return to Austin Country Club, possibly for the seventh and final time. Austin Country Club is a par 71 Pete Dye-designed course that will measure around 7,100 yards. Since there is no strokes gained data available for this event, it’s important to heavily consider past success in the tournament. Recent form of the players will also be a significant factor. While a statistical model can be used to guide analysis, this event tends to rely more on intuition when it comes to betting, in our opinion.
To identify a player profile, we can look at past winners and runners-up as a starting point. Scottie Scheffler, Kevin Kisner, Billy Horschel, Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, and Matt Kuchar are all players who have experienced repeated success in this event. Notably, Scottie, Rory, Tyrrell, and Kuchar perform well on Pete Dye-designed courses. McIlroy and Kuchar, in particular, excel on Pete Dye tracks that are under 7,200 yards in length.
Considering both the Pete Dye track filter and courses under 7,200 yards, we can observe a few other statistics in which these players tend to excel. These include Strokes Gained: Putting, Birdies or Better Gained, Strokes Gained: Par 5s, Sand Saves, and Scrambling. Therefore, we will run a statistical model incorporating these stats, along with a few additional ones. From there, we can narrow down the selection based on past performance and recent form of the players.
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Opportunities Gained
- Par 4 Scoring on holes of 350-400 yards (4 holes in range)
- Strokes Gained: Par 5 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Putting
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Tommy Fleetwood, @40/1: Thomas Paul Fleetwood, an English professional golfer competing on both the PGA Tour and European Tour, is our first pick. With six victories on the European Tour and a strong performance of joint 3rd at the Valspar Championship last week, we anticipate a step up from him in this event.
Tyrrell Hatton, @22/1: Tyrrell Glen Hatton, an English professional golfer competing on the European Tour and PGA Tour, is our second pick. With six wins on the European Tour, including four Rolex Series events, and a victory at the 2020 Arnold Palmer Invitational on the PGA Tour, Hatton has proven his abilities. He was also part of the winning 2018 Ryder Cup team.
Collin Morikawa, @22/1: Collin Morikawa, an American professional golfer competing on the PGA Tour and European Tour, is our final pick. He started his PGA Tour career with an impressive streak of 22 consecutive made cuts, second only to Tiger Woods’ 25-cut streak. Morikawa’s consistent performance makes him a strong contender in this tournament.
*Most Bookmakers Paying 5+ Places So E/W Advised*
The 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play will be the 24th and final WGC Match Play, played March 22–26 at Austin Country Club in Austin, Texas. The field consisted of the top 64 available eligible players from the Official World Golf Ranking on March 13.
Image Credit: golfdigest.com
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