Kamaru Usman – Decision (Lights-out knockouts have a funny habit of transforming fighters. Kamaru Usman enjoyed an extended run as Welterweight champion on the back of his adaptability. It’s impossible to guess the Nigerian’s headspace but it would be foolish to immediately write off such a dominant champion. After all, Usman landed almost three times as many strikes as Edwards over the course of their second fight. An early takedown would silence a vocal partisan crowd and inject some realism back into a fairly one-sided match-up)
Rafael Fiziev – TKO Round 1 (Rafael Fiziev’s fifth-round knockout over Rafael dos Anjos raised as many questions as it did answer. The Kyrgyzstani confirmed he could carry his freak athletic prowess deep into a fight and find the killswitch. Fiziev also managed to keep himself standing against RDA’s relentless takedown threat. Gaethje has never shown any desire to pursue a grappling-first gameplan. The Highlight’s leg kicks could frustrate Fiziev but it’s more likely that the Krygzistani’s speed makes the difference)
Gunnar Nelson – Decision (Barberena’s three-fight streak over weathered foes crumbled under a second-round submission by RDA in December. Bam Bam is sticking to his high-volume pressure game, but he tends to walk onto takedowns. RDA, Matt Brown and Darian Weeks were all able to land 4+ takedowns against Barberena. Nelson’s wrestling has traditionally struggled but this feels like a favourable match-up)
Casey O’Neill – Decision (O’Neill barely squeaked out a split decision over veteran Roxanne Modafferi but was able to land almost double the significant strikes. The sooner the 25-year-old realises landing to the body is free real estate at 125lbs, the better her chances of challenging for Grasso’s title. Maia is durable and consistent but will struggle with O’Neill’s activity)
Marvin Vettori – Decision (More confident use of his athletic gifts has seen Dolidze bully opponents on the feet and mat. The Georgian’s offensive grappling will struggle to dominate his mentally unbreakable Italian foe, but it should provide a captivating all-round contest with the latter’s conditioning playing a part down the stretch)
Jack Shore – Submission Round 3 (Amirkhani has been poorly coached over the past couple of years, with greater focus on a point-fighting kickboxing game than emphasising his lethal submission arsenal. Add in career gas tank issues and the technically sound Jack Shore should be able to big-brain his way through a tense opening round)
Chris Duncan – TKO Round 2 (Omar Morales has experienced an identity crisis since 2020. Three losses in his past five have seen the Venezuelan flip-flop between pure striking and pure grappling performances. The 37-year-old is fast running out of time to find a winning approach as he slides off an athletic cliff. Duncan walks himself into danger but his sky-high confidence and heavy-hands suggest a Scot win)
Sam Patterson – Decision (Yanal Ashmoz dominated Dennis Hughes from the top in a one-sided beatdown in the PFL. Patterson’s size will prevent a similar ground’n’pound spree but the Israeli’s wrestling threat remains. Neither fighter appears ready for the UFC level)
Muhammad Mokaev – Submission Round 2 ( Filho throws with full-blooded intention yet often limits his volume to two-strike combinations. His telegraphed kickboxing will allow Mokaev to time takedowns, but the Brit may initially struggle with the physicality of such a large opponent)
Lerone Murphy – Decision (Southpaw Gabriel Santos is heavily reliant on his left-side head kick – a surprise considering how little he attempts to mask it. Santos’ tendency to shoot a single leg during lull periods is also a nasty habit that Murphy will viciously punish. Lerone Murphy is that dude)
Christian Leroy Duncan – TKO Round 1 (Defensive lapses have seen Todorovic fall into a win-one-lose-one UFC career. The Serb is extremely hittable when attempting to close distance. A particular tendency to duck his head will allow Duncan’s knees and front kicks to threaten down the centre line)
Jake Hadley – Decision (Hadley’s best work comes from the top and will be put to the test against Malcolm Gordon. The experienced American has desperately struggled with his chin in the UFC, but he is a technically sound grappler. A good litmus paper test)
Joanne Wood – Decision (A toss-up between the mentally shot Joanne Wood and the technically devoid Luana Carolina. The Brazilian is a physically mean beast but relies on rock-em-sock-em pocket boxing that resembles punching underwater)
L’udovit Klein – Decision (Herbert is an underrated sniping striker who came close to stopping the fast-rising hype train of Ilia Topuria in March last year. Unfortunately, his ‘tall-man defence’ of leaning back won’t cut it against L’udovit Klein’s lethal head kicking. Klein is riding a career-high after out-classing Mason Jones although it did require Mr Highlight to grind out a decision on the mats)
Juliana Miller – Submission Round 2 (Veronica Hardy returns after three years out of the octagon – a surprise considering the Venezuelan won just once in her five UFC fights. Julianna Miller won TUF Season 30, had a winning fight within the last year and is the slicker BJJ artist)
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