PGA Tour
Golf
Date: March 2–5, 2023
We continue the Florida tour with a highly competitive field gathering for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, a par 72 course spanning approximately 7,466 yards. This tournament, which was first held in 1979, saw Bob Byman emerge as the inaugural winner, who interestingly was a fellow alumnus of Wake Forest University with Arnold Palmer. Bay Hill is longer than PGA National and, similar to the latter, plays longer than its official yardage suggests. The course is strategically designed with water hazards and bunkers that strategically require lay-up shots off the tee. While Bryson DeChambeau showcased the possibility of overpowering the course, historical success at Bay Hill has predominantly been linked to proficiency in long-iron approaches.
Considering that, our first and foremost important statistic this week is Strokes Gained: Approach, with a significant emphasis on shots from 200+ yards. Nearly one-third of the approach shots in this event will come from this distance range. This is influenced not only by the three par 3s measuring over 200 yards but also the strategic lay-ups. The fourth par 3 is listed at 199 yards, nearly falling within this range as well. This aligns with another key stat for the week, Par 4 scoring on holes ranging from 450-500 yards. These holes make up five of the 18 holes and account for four of the six most challenging holes on the course. Consequently, it is crucial to have players who excel with their mid-long iron shots.
Moving on, Par 5 scoring is significant because there are four par 5s, all of which present birdie opportunities. Three of them have a birdie rate of over 30%, with the 16th hole boasting an astonishing 50% birdie rate. The 16th hole also has an eagle rate of nearly 5%. On a course where a considerable number of approach shots will be from 200+ yards, capitalizing on these scoring opportunities becomes imperative.
The last two stats we’ll focus on are Strokes Gained: Putting and Ball-Striking. Putting holds importance at Bay Hill, so we’ll be considering players who have historically putted well on these greens and those who have shown recent prowess with the flatstick. As always, ball-striking remains crucial. While excellent ball-striking doesn’t guarantee success, it often leads to numerous opportunities.
The winning score for this tournament has varied in recent years, largely influenced by weather conditions. Current reports suggest that Friday could bring challenging winds.
Key Stats:
- SG: Approach with a focus on proximity from 200+ yards
- Par 4 scoring on holes of 450-500 yards
- SG: Par 5 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- SG: Ball Striking
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Jason Day, @35/1: Jason Day is an Australian professional golfer and PGA Tour member who clinched victory at the 2015 PGA Championship. He has also reached the top spot in the World Golf Ranking, attaining that position in September 2015.
Jon Rahm, @6/1: Jon Rahm Rodríguez is a Spanish professional golfer. He holds the record for being the top-ranked golfer in the World Amateur Golf Ranking for 60 weeks and has since ascended to the number one spot in the Official World Golf Ranking after winning the Memorial Tournament in July 2020.
Value Picks Each Way:
Rickie Fowler, @80/1: Rickie Fowler is a golfer known for his vibrant style and has experienced success on the PGA Tour. With a large field and several bookmakers offering six or more places, Fowler presents value for each-way bets.
Sam Burns, @45/1: Sam Burns is another player worth considering for each-way bets. With a highly competitive field, his odds provide favorable value, especially considering that several bookmakers offer six or more places.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour. It is played each March at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge, a private golf resort owned since 1974 by Arnold Palmer in Bay Hill, a suburb southwest of Orlando, Florida. Image Credit: Positivelyosceola.com
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