NBA All Stars
Basketball Best Bets
The National Basketball Association All-Star Game is a basketball exhibition game hosted every February by the National Basketball Association and showcases 24 of the league’s star players. It is the featured event of NBA All-Star Weekend, a three-day event which goes from Friday to Sunday.
LeBron vs Giannis, 1.30am GMT
Our Picks:
Under 325.0 @10/11 – Main Bet
Team LeBron ML @4/6
2020 Rule Change:
For those of you who do not know the NBA changed the rules of the All-Star Game in 2020 to make the game more exciting and to increase the competitiveness towards the end of the game. They implemented something called an Elam ending which took away the game clock in the 4th quarter and instead used a target score system to determine the winner. Whichever team is leading the cumulative score going into the 4th quarter will have 24 points added to their score (in honour of Kobe) and that will be the target score. The first team to reach that target score wins. Because of this, the 4th quarter total is heavily capped compared to the other 3 quarters. The most the winning team can score is 24 points while the team that is behind can score more than 24 (whatever it takes for them to reach the target score).
4th Quarter Totals Since Rule Change:
So let’s start with taking the average of the 4th quarter total of the only 3 of these style of All-Star games to take place so far. The total in the 4th was 55 in 2020, 49 in 2021, and 46 last year. That gives us an average of 50 points per 4th quarter in this format. Now, the first 3 quarters have the same timing and scoring system except that they are played as independent games in a sense with the winner of each getting money to donate to their charities. So the ending of these quarters can get more competitive than normal but besides that they are the same. The total line for this game is set at 325. So, we subtract this average of 50 to get a total of 275 for the first 3 quarters. So a total of 275 for the first 3 quarters comes out to 91.66 points per quarter.
First 3 Quarters Average Totals After and Before Rule Change:
The last 3 All-Star Games using this format have had average first 3 quarter totals of 85.66, 90.33, and 92.33. The only game going above that average was last year when Steph made 16 three pointers and scored 50 points and he isn’t playing tonight. And despite going over the average for the first 3 quarters they only combined for 46 points in the 4th quarter finishing with a game total of 323 points. In fact, every All-Star Game since the 2020 rule change has gone under 325 with totals of 302, 320, and 323. Now, you might be thinking that they’ve been getting closer to the total of 325 and the game is due to go over and you could be right but we can also use All-Star Game totals before the rule change to confirm that on average All-Star games have been going under this value.
We will do this by using the first 3 quarters value of 91.66 points that we need to stay under to stay on pace. We can take the average first 3 quarter totals of previous All-Star games by dividing the first 3 quarters total by 3. Were leaving the 4th quarters out of this calculation because even before the rule change in 2020 4th quarters were still more competitive then the others leading to lower totals that would skew the data. So, prior to the rule change in 2020 these were the 5 previous All-Star Games first 3 quarter total averages. In 2019 it was 87.66, in 2018 it was 73.66, in 2017 it was 94.33, in 2016 it was 93.66, and in 2015 it was 81.33. So, in the 5 previous All-Star Games before the rules change the average first 3 quarters total was under 91.66 in 3 out of 5 games. Only going over it by 2 points in 2016 and 3 points in 2017 with an average of 86.13 well below what we need to be on pace for an Under of 325 tonight. If you include the last 3 All-Star games with the new format this average has been 87.37 over the past 8 All-Star games. Now, multiply this value by 3 which gives us 262.11. Then, we add the average total of the 4th quarter with the new format of 50 to get an average total over the last 8 All-Star games of 312.11. We think this is a big enough discrepancy from the line of 325 to bet the under for value.
Injuries:
On top of this, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and Zion Williamson who were voted in as All-Star starters will not be playing due to injury. Steph and KD are two of the league’s premier offensive talents and jump shooters and Zion is a wrecking ball who would probably feast in the paint. Giannis, captain of Team Giannis and starter, is also questionable with the wrist injury he suffered in my last pick of the day and missed the skills competition last night so he could miss the game as well but it is uncertain at this point.
Conclusion:
So, the new format capping scoring in the 4th quarter, increased competitiveness and defense because of the new format, and historical analysis of previous All-Star games pushes me strongly towards the under. On top of injured and missing high-scoring starters on both teams.
Best NBA All-Stars Betting Picks and Tips, Image Credit: wiki.com
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