PGA Tour
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The top players will now make their way to Arizona for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, known as one of the most fan-friendly events on the tour. TPS Scottsdale will host a highly competitive field. Based on previous years, we can anticipate a winning score of around 17-18 under par. Notably, players tend to find putting easier on this course, so overall strong tee-to-green performance is more important than excelling in any specific area.
Let’s dive into the key statistics for this week. First, we’ll examine Strokes Gained: Tee-to-green. Winners and top finishers have demonstrated excellent tee-to-green play, aligning with the course’s relative ease when it comes to putting. Elite tee-to-green players like JT, Xander, and Rahm have found success here. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is the next important stat since drives on this course tend to be about 13 yards longer than the tour average. This provides a significant advantage for longer hitters, who can leave themselves with shorter approach shots. Par 5 Scoring is also crucial, as all three par 5s are reachable in two shots for most of the field. Longer hitters can potentially have mid-irons into these greens, and scoring on these holes, with their high eagle rates, is of utmost importance. We want players who can challenge the par 5s and create eagle opportunities.
Next, we focus on SG: Approach, particularly from the proximity of 150-175 yards. This course sees a higher number of approach shots from this range, so we want players who excel in this yardage. These shots come into play on long par 4s and potentially even par 5s, where players can truly separate themselves from the field. SG: Around the Green is another stat that correlates with winners and top finishers. The putting and chipping numbers suggest that it’s somewhat easier to get the ball in the hole on this course. Whether it’s due to easier reads, true rolling greens, or greens that tend to run toward the hole more often, players have an advantage when it comes to making putts and chips. We want players who can capitalize on this and potentially secure a few chip-ins. Lastly, as always, strong ball-striking is crucial, especially in an event like this that typically yields low scores.
Key Stats Summary:
- SG: Tee-to-green
- SG: Off the Tee
- SG: Par 5 Scoring
- SG: Approach, focusing on 150-175 yards
- SG: Around the Green
- SG: Ball Striking
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Tony Finau @16/1: Finau is a top player, and his odds are appealing. However, his history at this event raises concerns, with a mix of a 2nd-place finish and several missed cuts in consecutive years. Despite the questionable history, his recent performances have been strong, and his overall game is impressive.
Xander Schauffele @16/1: Schauffele’s above-average driving distance and exceptional approach play from key distances make him a perfect fit for this course. His remarkable record of five consecutive top-20 finishes, including finishes of third place or better in the last two years, demonstrates his suitability for this event. His numbers are hard to ignore.
Dog Pick:
Sungjae Im @25/1: Im showcased excellent iron play at the Farmers Insurance Open, alleviating previous concerns. He also boasts a solid history at this event and TPC Summerlin. With favorable odds, Sungjae Im is a strong candidate. Notably, Sungjae and Tom Kim often perform well in the same tournaments.
The Phoenix Open is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour, held in late January/early February at TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona.
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