NBA Season 2022/23
Slam Dunk
The NBA Games will come thick and fast so check back daily for our predictions.
Our Picks:
Miami Heat ML @37/20 vs Milwaukee Bucks – Dog Of The Day
We choose the Heat because we believe this is a good matchup for them. The Bucks just came off of a crazy effort to make the comeback against the Clippers and are in danger of a let down game. Miami always plays hard every night on both ends of the floor, making it a less than ideal matchup for the Bucks. Adebayo has good size and can guard Giannis while Butler is a good defender and should be able to handle Jrue.
Leonard (LAC) O25.5 points @4/6 vs Knicks – Player Prop
Kawhi comes into this one averaging 21.6 points per game. He’s covered this line in 6 out of his last 8 games, putting up 27, 36, 30, 25, 27, 32, 33 and 17 points. His missed came against a Lakers team who frequently blitzed/doubled him and a strong defensive Milwaukee team.
He now comes up against a Knicks team who currently have the 3rd worst defensive rating over their last 10 games, largely due to the injury of Robinson. Recent SFs pts vs NYK: Kuzma (27), Hunter (20), Barnes (19), Okoro (9), Tatum (35), Harris (16), Lebron (28) and Butler (10). Butler is less relevant to this matchup, as he saw a lot of coverage by Grimes, who is 91st percentile in DEPM. I’m expecting PG to draw this matchup in this one. Kawhi is more likely to see coverage from Barrett (30th percentile DEPM)/ and or Randle (46th percentile DEPM), which are significantly easier matchups than Grimes.
Kawhi has covered the line in both games v NYK as a Clipper, putting up 28 and 29 points. His scoring zones align well here too, as he attempts over 20% of his field goals from 3pt range and 20% of his FGs from less than 5 feet. Conveniently, on the season the Knicks are allowing the 5th most 3PM to opposition small forwards and the 2nd most points in the paint. In their last 10, they are allowing the most points in the paint.
Other Picks:
Lakers ML @5/6 vs Pelicans
Nets vs Wizard, Over 229.5 Points @10/11
Thunder ML @5/18 vs Rockets
Nuggets ML @5/14 vs ATL Hawks
The National Basketball Association is a professional basketball league in North America. The league is composed of 30 teams and is one of the four major professional sports leagues in the United States and Canada. It is the premier men’s professional basketball league in the world.
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