PGA Tour Golf
AT&T Pro Am
Date: Feb 2–5, 2023
Players will now make a 430-mile journey down the Pacific coast to Pebble Beach for the upcoming tournament. This event will showcase three golf courses: Spyglass Hill, Monterey Peninsula CC, and Pebble Beach. Spyglass Hill is a par 72 playing at 7,041 yards, Monterey Peninsula CC is a par 71 spanning 6,957 yards, and Pebble Beach is a par 72 covering 6,972 yards. These courses are relatively short, and based on recent winning scores, we can anticipate the victor finishing around 18-19 under par.
The first key statistic we’ll focus on is Strokes Gained: Approach, specifically examining proximity from 75-100 and 100-125 yards. Since there will be numerous wedge shots, the ability to excel in these distance ranges is crucial. The shorter holes also enable players to be conservative off the tee and still have short wedges into many of the greens. These greens, compared to the average on the PGA Tour, are relatively small, amplifying the significance of accurate approach shots. This leads us to our next key stat, Strokes Gained: Around the Green. With small greens and a winning score near 20 under, players cannot afford to drop strokes, making successful recoveries vital.
We will also pay attention to distances on par 4s playing between 350-400 yards and 400-450 yards. Since all three courses are relatively short, the ability to score on these shorter par 4s is essential. Additionally, we will factor in strokes gained on courses playing less than 7,200 yards.
Strokes Gained: Putting on Poa greens will be another important stat to consider, as the conversion rates for putts in the 5-15 feet range tend to be below the tour average. Players who can excel in this area should be able to gain an advantage over the field. Considering the tournament’s coastal location, weather conditions may also play a role. Currently, the forecast appears relatively calm, but if the wind picks up, it could present challenges, especially on the small greens.
Key Stats Summary:
- Strokes Gained: Approach, focusing on 75-100 and 100-125 yards
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Par 4 scoring on holes measuring 350-400 yards and 400-450 yards
- Strokes Gained: Courses under 7,200 yards
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the tournament:
Matt Fitzpatrick @9/1: Fitzpatrick holds the highest ranking in the field at No. 10. He won his first major championship and first PGA Tour event at the U.S. Open in 2022.
Joel Dahmen @40/1: Dahmen displayed an impressive finish last season, with strong performances including a T3, T9, and T5. He tends to excel on shorter courses and is ranked 13th in strokes gained on such courses over the last 36 rounds. The only concern is his absence from competition for more than two months.
Ben Griffin @60/1: Griffin ranks 5th in strokes gained on short courses, 5th in par 4 scoring, and 5th on 400-450-yard par 4s. Additionally, he holds respectable rankings of 14th, 11th, and 22nd in proximity from 75-100, 100-125, and 125-150 yards, respectively. With odds of 60/1, he presents an intriguing choice.
Best Golf Betting Picks, Image Credit: pgatour.com
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