The American Express
PGA Golf
Date: Jan 19–22, 2023
The American Express is a distinctive tournament on the golf calendar, as it showcases three different golf courses: La Quinta Country Club, PGA West the Nicklaus Course, and PGA West the Stadium Course. Players who make the cut will have the opportunity to play the Stadium Course twice. Unlike most tournaments with a cut after two rounds, this event implements a cut line after three rounds, allowing all players to experience each of the courses once. Historically, all three courses have tended to provide favorable scoring conditions, resulting in low winning scores. Therefore, it is expected that the winning score will fall within the range of 23-25 under par, emphasizing the need for players to go exceptionally low to contend.
Let’s explore the key statistics for this week’s event. We will primarily focus on the PGA West Stadium Course since it will be played twice by those who qualify. We prioritize this course because the other two courses are relatively straightforward, making approach shots and putting the key factors. The Stadium Course, designed by Pete Dye, places a premium on positioning off the tee. To navigate this challenging layout successfully, players must exercise caution with their driver, sacrificing some distance to avoid the numerous bunkers and hazards strategically placed throughout the course. With small and undulating greens, golfers with precise approach games are more likely to score well.
Therefore, our first key statistic for the week is Strokes Gained: Approach. The small greens necessitate accurate approach shots to generate birdie opportunities. Given the importance of going low in this event, we want players who consistently give themselves chances to make birdies. We will specifically focus on the distance range of 150-175 yards, as statistical data indicates it is the most common range for approach shots at this tournament.
The next key statistic is Ball-Striking, a signature metric associated with Pete Dye’s courses. These courses tend to favor golfers who excel in ball striking, and elite ball strikers have historically found success on Dye’s designs. Strokes Gained: Putting is also crucial since scoring is paramount in this event, and players who struggle with their putting will face significant challenges. We will also consider the statistic of Hit Fairways, as evidence suggests that playing from the fairway leads to easier scoring opportunities. Although the rough may not be overly punishing, we are primarily concerned with avoiding bunkers and water hazards, making accuracy off the tee vital.
Considering that the winning score is likely to be exceptionally low, we will target players who can consistently produce birdies, leading us to incorporate the statistic of Birdies or Better. The greenside bunkers are notorious for their difficulty, and with small greens, the bunkers come into play. While bunker play is not the sole focus, it will be a consideration when narrowing down our target list. Finally, we will heavily factor in Par 5 Scoring, as a significant portion of scoring occurs on the par 5 holes. Simply put, players who fail to capitalize on the par 5s are unlikely to contend on Sunday afternoon.
Key Stats Summary:
- Strokes Gained: Approach, with a focus on 150-175 yard proximity
- Ball Striking
- Birdies or Better Gained
- Fairways Gained
- Par 5 Scoring
- Strokes Gained: Putting
It’s worth noting that this event has a history of longshot winners, with three out of the last four champions securing victory at triple-digit odds. Only one player with odds shorter than 30-1 has won this tournament since 2014.
Now, let’s move on to our picks for the event:
Tony Finau @20/1
Si Woo Kim @20/1
Tom Hoge @40/1
Tom Hoge, who has finished second and sixth in the last three years at this event, possesses elite-tier iron play, making his initial odds of 50/1 appear highly undervalued. Although we couldn’t secure the 50/1 odds, we still find the 40/1 odds favorable.
Si Woo Kim has already emerged victorious at this tournament and has achieved ninth and eleventh-place finishes in the last five years. While we typically avoid players coming off a win, Kim’s momentum and potential improvement in his putting with the switch to a broomstick putter could make him a strong contender.
Tony Finau is known for having strong stretches during the year, and it seems like he could be entering one now.
Best Golf Betting Picks, Image Credit: nbc.com
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