Stephen Thompson – Decision (The Kevin Holland who knocked out Joaquin Buckley may have been his peak performance. Educated counter-striking, exceptional use of his reach and a mesmerising array of feints to mask his power. Holland at 170lbs is a mess in which his preference to pressure opponents has seen him lose exchanges with Alex Oliveira and Tim Means. As much as Thompson should beat Holland on paper, the physical decline is very difficult to overlook. If Holland were a slightly more consistent fighter, less prone to mental lapses, I’d expect to break a slowing Thomspon down the stretch. This won’t be the first time that Wonderboy has faced a potential three-fight slide, but it will take a gargantuan performance to replicate the dominance of the Vicente Luque victory)
RDA – Decision (Bam Bam may have stopped Robbie Lawler in the second round, but the fight felt reminiscent of a veteran’s league rather than the top MMA promotion. Barberena was pressed back by Lawler through footwork alone – an area that RDA has regularly punished opponents throughout his career. Barberena should aim to use his physical advantages to bully Dos Anjos early and tax the ageing Brazilian’s gas tank – especially considering RDA has spent only five months on the sidelines since his crushing stoppage loss to Rafael Fiziev)
Matheus Nicolau – Submission Round 3 (Nicolau lacks knockout power and pushes a pedestrian pace, but his accuracy and consistency have seen his rise to a three-fight streak upon his return to the UFC. Meanwhile, Schnell flies out of the blocks to create a mess and falls back onto his grappling chops. For a fighter with a questionable chin, it is a head-scratcher as to why Schnell has adopted such a wild style)
Tai Tuivasa – TKO Round 2 (The huge red flag has to be Tuivasa’s lack of recovery time after a bloody beatdown in Paris at the hands of Ciryl Gane. Against Pavlovich, a ferociously fast starter, it could be too much too soon for Bam Bam. However, Tuivasa has made a career out of thriving in tough 50/50 exchanges and turning the tide of a fight with a one-shot. Pavlovich is a swarmer once he has his opponent hurt and could easily walk himself into a Greg Hardy-esque highlight reel)
Jack Hermansson – Decision (The Swede, once a feared grappler at Middleweight who dominated Jacare Souza, is now a strangely robotic striker. As seen against Chris Curtis, Hermansson can keep a counter-puncher on the end of his jab with relative ease. That alone is the key to victory against Roman Dolidze. The Georgian is a mess of parts, dangerous in all areas of a fight, but he massively struggled against Trevin Giles – the only fighter who has entered against Dolidze with a clear, consistent game plan)
Kyle Daukaus – Decision (Suffering his first knockout loss in the professional ranks last time out, Daukaus was caught clean in the clinch. Daukaus cannot afford to hold any baggage from the devastating loss, as his dominance in the clinch has been the root of his past successes. Anders has regressed over his UFC tenure without a real bump up in opposition quality from his early days. Expecting a dull affair in which Anders backs himself onto the cage, allowing Daukaus to cruise to a decision)
Niko Price – TKO Round 3 (Rowe oozes fluidity on the feet compared to Price, who relies on his awkward frame and durability to break opponents. A lack of ground game could be the kicker, however – representing an area where Rowe’s TDD deficiencies will prove more fatal than the strength of Price’s wrestling)
Emily Ducote – Decision (Ducote is still a work in progress standing, certainly a level below Hill, yet the wrestling threat will create real trouble for Hill to settle on the feet. Expecting a razor-thin decision, however, as Hill remains a dynamic and entertaining striker deep into her career twilight)
Clay Guida – Decision (Hot Sauce may be facing a three-fight slide but you’d be hard-stretched to find a more thankless back-to-back than Beneil Dariush and Mateusz Gamrot. At 39 years old, Holtzman’s ceiling is well-defined but is enough of a physical presence to hold his own on the mat with Guida. Backing The Carpenter on the eve of his 60th professional fight, however)
Marc Diakiese – Decision (Considering Michael Johnson remains a threat on the feet, while Marc Diakiese is a strong game planner, it suggests the Brit will happily swallow the crowd’s boos en route to a wrestling-heavy victory. Don’t be fooled by MJ’s 1-5 record in his last six fights, however – in typical MJ fashion, he showcased enough talent to argue his case for beating all six opponents)
Jonathan Pearce – TKO Round 2 (For a fighter on a four-fight streak, including an impressive second-round beatdown of Makwan Amirkhani, Pearce has to be confused as to why he has received such a sideways piece of match-making. Elkins has managed to pick up recent wins in his traditional gutsy, grappling fashion, but Pearce hits far too hard to risk a fight on the mat. Especially when the veteran’s face transforms into a bloodbath after eating the first couple of strikes in a fight)
Tracy Cortez – Decision (An easy sell for the UFC matchmaker, Cortez is a strong wrestler who can afford to opt for a control-first approach. Ribas is a pain to get to the mat, but once on her back, Cortez has to be favoured to be enough of a physical nuisance to keep her pinned. Still, the Brazilian has a huge advantage on the feet. Even with the underlying wild factor to Ribas’ striking, this is still the same fighter who jabbed the head off Mackenzie Dern – a striker of similar quality to Cortez)
Natan Levy – Submission Round 2 (Valdez is an enjoyable all-offence fighter but his entertaining style will see him regularly run into trouble at the UFC level. Levy has swallowed a couple of tough decisions over his UFC career, but there is reason to believe that the Karate and Kung Fu Black Belt is maturing in MMA. Owing to Valdez’s aggression and resilience, he could expose Levy’s waning gas tank in the later rounds)
Marcelo Rojo – TKO Round 3 (There is a huge ceiling concerning Marshall’s freak athleticism, but as always, there are worries about prospects fast-tracked through the DWCS system rather than learning at regionals. Marcelo Rojo isn’t a great athlete, nor is he a particularly strong technician, but the Argentinian is one tough cookie to break. More so, Rojo Rojo hits very hard and I’m expecting his old man power to surprise a 23-year-old who has faced little in the way of adversity over six fights)
Yazmin Jauregui – Decision (23 years old, entertaining on the feet and fighting in a division with enough chaff to ensure she has time to learn – Yazmin Jauregui is one to watch for the future. Nunes tends to start fast, timing accurate counter-strikes early, but as seen against Sam Hughes – she mentally wanes against relentless pressure)
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