Calvin Kattar – Decision (Although all fighter’s chins have an expiry date, it feels as though Calvin Kattar’s chin has many more miles left on the clock. As such, the question remains whether Allen can lay an early pace that prevents Kattar from warming into his reads. The Brit blitzed Dan Hooker in under a round last time out, but weight may have played a significant hand in the affair. Of particular worry is Allen’s liberal use of his chin when closing the distance. While we think the 28-year-old edges Kattar in hand speed and early initiative, we are yet to see him cut the cage at a level that is required to keep Kattar restrained. Eventually, Kattar will pry his way back into the championship rounds with his sniping straight shots and bodywork. A quick nod towards Allen potentially dipping into his underrated ground game – don’t be surprised by the threat of an early takedown)
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Max Griffin – Decision (Recently, Griffin had leaned into operating as a gritty brawler, relying upon his freakish durability. The last time out was an exception, however, as Griffin drew Neil Magny onto long counters. Against the high volume of Means, Griffin can lay enough traps for Means to eventually walk onto one. Not to write off Means’ three-fight streak over 2020-2021, proving his technical excellence – especially his elbows in the clinch. Both fighters love to give up hard-fought decisions, however, so it could well be a coin-flip)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta – TKO Round 1 (Salsa Boy is your classic slugger Heavyweight, with enough early aggression to break the mentally broken Jared Vanderaa. To be frank, Vanderaa is being used by the UFC as a walking highlight reel. Vanderaa has a slight chance of exposing Cortes-Acosta’s lack of ground game, but his only takedown in the UFC came against Harry Hunsucker in the DWCS back in 2020)
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Josh Fremd – Decision (Gore’s greatest success comes from earning an opponent’s respect early with his power. As seen against Anthony Hernandez, Josh Fremd refuses to wilt under early firepower. The Big Yinz has had his chin checked before, involving a two-minute starching to Gregory Rodrigues, but it’s fair to say that Robocop’s striking is several levels above Gore’s single-shot attack)
Dustin Jacoby – Decision (Khalil Rountree’s furious aggression will open windows for Jacoby to land his powerful counters. It’s anyone’s guess as to what version of Rountree will enter the octagon, but his terrifying power carries into each fight. Backing the consistency of Jacoby’s stand-up, but it’s important to note that the 34-year-old isn’t the slickest lateral mover and can be backed onto the cage)
Phil Hawes – Decision (Not many expected the Georgian marriage breaker to nuke Kyle Daukus in under a round. The same bullying front-foot approach could well see Dolidze walk onto a Phil Hawes bomb, however. The size difference could prove a major hurdle to such a plan, but No Hype managed to overcome the high-flying Nassourdine Imavov in a tooth’n’nail affair. If Hawes falls onto his wrestling, though, Dolidze is a staunch neutraliser on the mat who can stall out the clock)
Andrei Arlovski – Decision (Conservative on the back foot, Arlovski lets his opponents unravel on the feet as they become increasingly desperate to break the Belarussian’s guard. Collier’s hand speed exposed Arlovski’s 43 years of age, with Rogerio de Lima falling also into the power category. The Brazilian does own a shock wrestling base to dip into when his hands are missing the mark. Despite Arlovski’s physical gifts waning, he is still a nightmare to takedown)
Jun Yong Park – TKO Round 2 (Considering Holmes struggles to make the most of his reach and Park’s strong TDD, this should be a bloody affair. Holmes carries pop in his punches but the Iron Turtle is very durable and adaptable in the pocket. Only poor decision-making could lead to Holmes finding his preferred fight on the mat)
Chase Hooper – Submission Round 1 (Garcia is a hyper-aggressive striker without the chin to back it up – not that Hooper’s woeful striking is primed to punish it. Rather, Garcia’s risk-taking on the feet will allow Hooper to wrap him up. The Mean Machine owns devastating ground’n’pound but off his back, nothing other than a Hooper submission should be expected)
Cody Durden – Decision (LFA Flyweight champion, Carlos Mota, takes his UFC debut on late notice. Mota is a ferocious striker who carries the innate power to punish Durden’s aggression on the feet. Durden’s wrestling base and strong early starts seem safer to back as a less than 100% Mota fades down the stretch)
Christian Rodriguez – TKO Round 3 (Weems may have won the Fury belt off the back of his scary submission arsenal, but the debutant is not afraid to light a fire on the feet. The late-notice nature of the fight should urge Weems’ to fly out the blocks. Rodriguez’s powerful, sniping right straight will pay dividends as it meets Weems on the centre line time and time again)
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