UFC MMA
Full Card Tips
Islam Makhachev – Submission Round 3 (A lot has been said about Makhachev’s chin in the build-up. After all, the Dagestani was finished in the first round by the experienced yet limited, Adriano Martins. Under the duress of Oliveira’s outrageous athleticism and high-risk striking, Makhachev’s simplistic defence could struggle to adapt over subsequent layers. It just feels as though there won’t be much time for striking during this championship bout, however. Makhachev has proven himself an immaculate game planner over his career, leaving no doubts that he will be hell-bent on taking the fight to the ground. A ludicrous wrestler with an arsenal of takedowns, in addition to Oliveira willingly embracing a grappling war on the mat, will offer Makhachev the opportunity to implement his top game. Oliveira is a dynamic submission artist, but Makhachev very rarely makes mistakes on the ground. Considering Makhachev’s exceptional gas tank, it saddens me to foresee Oliveira fading physically and mentally by the championship rounds)
TJ Dillashaw – Decision (Aljamain Sterling surprised everyone when he earned a well-earned split decision in the Petr Yan rematch. A similar level of grappling control would be insanely difficult to replicate against TJ Dillashaw. Important to note that Dillashaw looked to have lost a physical step against Sandhagen. It’s worth considering to what extent the athletic dropoff will affect the former champ’s ability to exert pressure. Even so, it feels like a stylistic match-up that Dillashaw can comfortably exploit – not withstanding Sterling latching on to his back early)
Petr Yan – TKO Round 2 (Not to harp on about O’Malley’s extended lead leg, but it is a glaring weakness that Yan simply cannot miss. Even forgoing the leg kick, Yan’s educated pressure will eventually find him in the pocket and piecing apart O’Malley. O’Malley is a fast, accurate starter who can hit the button from the opening bell, but he lacks the one-shot knockout power to keep Yan humble on the outside. The Russian can always opt for the safer grappling route and brutalise Sugar on the mat)
Mateusz Gamrot – Decision (The Pole will be offered no time to settle into the fight against the extremely aggressive Dariush, but his exceptional chin should be able to keep him afloat. Gamrot has proved almost impossible to keep tied to the mat over his career but Dariush handled Diego Ferreira with surprising ease. This is an exceptionally balanced match-up, with Gamrot’s freakish gas tank and relentless takedowns offering the edge on the scorecards)
Katlyn Chookagian – Decision (Chookagian is a consistently accurate striker who comfortably out-works opponents without taking many risks. While Fiorot is a tricky southpaw customer on the feet owing to her size, it’s difficult to write off Chookagian’s natural ability to gauge round-winning output. The Frenchwoman will need to impose her strength in the clinch, but she may find it difficult to tie down her experienced opponent to one spot)
Belal Muhammad – Decision (Sean Brady is a highly dangerous grappler but there is a sneaking suspicion that the American has been pushed too early into his career. A phenomenal athlete, Brady will find himself at a technical gap against Belal. I’m expecting Brady to have success against Muhammad early through setting a strong pace, but it won’t be enough to break his vastly experienced foe – especially when you consider Belal’s 91% TDD.)
Caio Borralho – Decision (Borralho is flying high on form but Muradov has killer speed and pop that could catch the Brazilian cold early. Borralho lacks the defensive slickness needed to stay safe during the opening round, but his chin instead appears capable of carrying the load. As seen against Meerschaert, Muradov crumbles under sustained pressure and Borralho will eventually find the opportunity to shoot)
Volkan Oezdemir – Decision (Krylov is easier to back as a busy kickboxer who is deadset on controlling opponents on the mat. Aside from the Daniel Cormier fight, Oezdemir has regularly proven to be a tricky customer to take down, such as against Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic. Oezdemir’s greater output and utilisation of angles should prove the edge on the feet as well)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev – Decision (Khabib’s cousin, Abubakar, is best known for disappointing his bloodline after falling into a David Zawada triangle choke. Abubakar showed another layer to his striking against Jared Gooden, but he will struggle to keep himself standing against Omargazhiev. Omargadzhiev is a massive physical specimen, not without technical flaws, but should be able to out-muscle Nurmagomedov early on)
Armen Petrosyan – TKO Round 3 (The frightening violence in AJ Dobson’s game provides a base that can be refined, but his learning should still be on the regionals rather than the cut-throat UFC. Petrosyan is still largely a one-trick kickboxer, but he has shown great ability to work through adversity and stick to his preferred game plan)
Muhammad Mokaev – Submission Round 1 (Gordon is a glass cannon without the tricks on the feet to catch opponents often on the feet. As a result, the Canadian has adopted a crafty grappling game – but to chase it would be to fall into Mokaev’s preferred fight. Mokaev has been erratic on his feet over his two fights in the UFC, but he shouldn’t face much adversity when shooting against Gordon)
Karol Rosa – Decision (Lansberg is in for a long night of Rosa’s inexhaustible, rapid combinations. The Swede was once a tough, physical fighter but at 40 years old it just isn’t happening anymore. Chuck in Rosa’s strong chin and it would take a nightmare TDD blip for Rosa to lose this)
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