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UFC 279 Diaz Vs Ferguson Betting Predictions

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1 share, 55 points

Nate Diaz – Decision (On the one hand, Ferguson looked better in the first round against Michael Chandler, than he had done over nearly an hour of octagon time before that. On the other, El Cucuy was iced hard at the start of the second round – breaking the aura surrounding his legendary chin. Moreso than any other fighter, Ferguson’s style has been utterly reliant upon his confidence in his chin. This should be an extended war of attrition, with Diaz being favoured down the stretch as the slightly less weathered fighter. Perhaps it is the heart talking, but we don’t expect either fighter to opt to go to the mat. In what could be both men’s final UFC fight, this has the foundations to be a fairytale ending for two legends)

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Khamzat Chimaev – TKO Round 2 (To keep it brief, this still remains a smash job. Weight cut issues, suspected medical troubles – whatever, it’s all hot air, Khamzat Chimaev is a nightmare stylistic opponent for Kevin Holland. All of Chimaev’s known offensive skills were on show against nigh-elite opposition in Gilbert Burns. Sharp boxing combinations, a lightning wrestling base and clubbing top control. Of note, however, was Chimaev’s exceptional recovery and ability to overcome adversity. Not that it should matter against Kevin Holland, even in a supposed grudge match. Holland is yet to show his dominating striking at Welterweight as he did at Middleweight, instead walking down both Alex Oliveira and Tim Means in uncharacteristically sloppy performances. That seems foolish against Chimaev, a fighter who will be looking to hug legs from the opening bell. Once cool heads prevail, this still reads as a gimme from the UFC for their latest cash cow)

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Daniel Rodriguez – Decision (The Leech is extremely durable on the feet, capable of digging deep for a late-round push, and has refined his counter-striking over his lengthy career. D-Rod doesn’t own the fastest hands, but his laser-sharp accuracy will punish Leech if he is found lingering at mid-range. If Li enters Saturday, hellbent on bullying the larger Rodriguez, the fight will descend into a mess that D-Rod can stamp his mark on the most significant moments. Adding in Rodriguez’s solid TDD, it’s difficult to see Li bridging the weight gap and securing a takedown if his striking falls apart)

Irene Aldana – Decision (A weight bully, Chiasson’s technical pitfalls will prove her undoing on Saturday. On the outside, Chiasson will be picked apart by the Mexican’s jab. Chiasson will be a nuisance to contain on the inside during the early stages, yet once Aldana has made the necessary reads, the latter will be more willing with her powerful right hand and settle into combinations in the pocket)

Johnny Walker – TKO Round 2 (Cutelaba, if anything, is consistent. We can always expect the Moldovan to fly out of the blocks early and gas himself in pursuit of a finish. Walker seems gun-shy since his move to SBG, losing his greatest strength of unorthodox explosive striking, whilst his defence remains reliant upon the ‘tall-guy lean-back’. Cutelaba takes big risks chasing an opponent’s head, however, which is always a dangerous prospect against such a fast-twitch athlete. With the small yet significant strides that Walker has made in his defensive grappling, I’m just about leaning towards Walker to survive a torrid first round before growing in confidence)

Hakeem Dawodu – Decision (Dawodu’s masterful distance control and timing offer sharp, natural counter-punching – but they are more often strong pieces than a cohesive game. Erosa could still win this through a typically gusty front-foot performance. The veteran has ironed out more technical front-foot striking over his punishing career, yet his non-existent defence will leave him unable to win a pure kickboxing affair on the outside. If Erosa is to win, he will have to eat a ton of punishment – never an easy back)

Jailton Almeida – Submission Round 1 (Almeida works his way down from Heavyweight back to 220lbs, a grey area where the Brazilian should prove to be a physical beast. We are still yet to see how Almeida can manoeuvre in the later rounds against UFC-level competition. Anton Turkalj is not UFC-calibre, or at least, not yet proven. Turkalj fights like a man who has only spent three years in an octagon, with his striking relying more on physicality than technicals)

Jamie Pickett – Decision (Pickett is a durable wrestle-boxer who, despite owning an imposing Middleweight physique, is often incapable of utilising his athletic gifts. Meanwhile, Tiuliulin carries heavy artillery that often fails to find the mark as a result of his messy, unorthodox striking. Tiuliulin’s consistent aggression is the safest to back, but he is a terribly flawed fighter with a padded record. I’m backing Pickett to be offered enough time early to find his feet)

Jake Collier – Decision (Collier is vastly overweight and lacks the athletic frame to climb the ladder, but he can box blistering circles around the heavy-handed single-strikers of 265lbs. After missing weight again, there remain red flags about whether Barnett is in the right frame of mind to return to fighting so soon after his wife’s passing. Barnett’s unorthodox, explosive striking catches the eye, but it limits his path to victory against every opponent)

Norma Dumont – Submission Round 2 (Three-time USA Boxing National Champion, Danyelle Wolf, continues her brief transition to MMA with a second-fight UFC debut. Dumont is a proven UFC-quality fighter, however, whilst Wolf looked incredibly raw on her DWCS appearance. This feels like a brutal booking, hopefully, I’ll be proven wrong, but there doesn’t seem like Dumont will find issues in walking through her green opponent)

Heili Alateng – TKO Round 3 (Alateng can be out-worked, Casey Kenney danced circles around the Mongolian on his UFC debut. Anheliger lacks the striking variety and lateral footwork of Kenney, however, and will eventually be slowed by Alateng’s clubbing counters)

Melissa Martinez – Decision (Super Melly is a heavy-pressure fighter who owns the tools to keep Reed’s best weapons locked within her locker. Martinez does have a tendency to disengage after a combination and sit at striking range – an area that Reed’s punches in bunches could exploit. Still, if Reed isn’t offered time or space, she struggles to string together a consistent offence)

Darian Weeks – Decision (There is a surprising wrestling trump card up Lainesse’s pocket, yet expect more of the same punishing inside work on the feet on Saturday. Weeks is hardly a defensive savant, there is a genuine possibility that Lainesse kickstarts the card with an early finish. I’m backing the vastly experienced American to match Lainesse on the inside whilst threatening takedowns)

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