Divisional Championship
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Semifinals Lines and Totals – Not picks, these are just the lines, Picks Below!
Colorado (-135) vs Chicago (+110) – Total 42.5 – Friday at 5 PM Central
New York -2 (-225) vs Carolina +2 (+180) – Total 39.5 – Friday at 7:30 PM Central
The winner of each semi-final play in the championship on Saturday.
Semi-Final Picks:
Colorado vs Chicago, Friday at 5 PM CT – Neutral site in Madison, WI
We are in for a treat Friday evening as two loaded offenses gear up to play each other for the first time in league history. Colorado has only existed for this one season while Chicago has been around the league for nearly a decade, but both teams have lots of experience playing each other in the amateur club circuit. Both franchises won their division championships by five goals apiece, although Colorado’s was arguably much closer through three quarters. I don’t expect nearly as large a win here from either team, and honestly could see this going either way.
Colorado opened as favourites at -150 (now -135), and are technically the 2-seed at Championship Weekend, although they achieved that status by winning a coin toss, as Chicago had the same exact 11-1 record and overall point differential in the regular season. I am curious if Colorado’s status as the 2-seed was what prompted DK to lean to the Summit as favorites, because if I was setting the line I would have given Chicago the slight edge. Chicago is ~3 hours from Madison, so they should have a decent home crowd, and Chicago also has plenty of experience playing in this field site compared to Colorado, who have a few players with experience there and that’s it. Obviously these are not massive edges, but we take what we can get in an elite matchup like this.
Honestly there’s not much else to say here. Each team will be hungry, each team will make plays, it just comes down to who plays a more complete game after four quarters. I give the edge to Chicago for the aforementioned reasons, and because I think they have a little more star power on each side of the disc than Colorado does. On that note, it will be interesting to see if Alex Atkins suits up for the Summit. Atkins has been a monster this season but got injured and hasn’t played recently. I don’t really have any knowledge as to whether he’ll play, or if he’s even rostered/attending, but if he does play that would definitely be a big help for Colorado. (Active rosters should drop Thursday.)
I’m picking Chicago +110 to win (there’s no spread as of this post), and for the purposes of tracking I’ll make it a ‘Main Pick,’ although there is definitely a solid chance Colorado wins. I wouldn’t suggest more than one or two units on this (or any of the picks this weekend, for that matter).
Total-wise, I lean the over 42.5 -110, although it’s a good line. Wind is always a key factor when it comes to frisbee, much more than other sports. Writing this on Wednesday, wind for Friday evening in Madison looks to be around 4-6 mph, which is pretty favourable offensively, although stadium design can impact wind currents. The divisional game in Chicago last week definitely saw a hit on the total due to wind, but Chicago still scored 21 goals. Meanwhile, Colorado hasn’t scored under 20 goals since the very first game of the season. Both teams rank top-four in goals per game, and with decent weather conditions, I think this game will probably hit that over. Of course, defensive intensity does ratchet up during big moments, and totals can be tougher to predict. I’d suggest seeing what /u/krdonnie picks here or in the Ultiworld Bets Perspective column (only a $4 subscription; I’m unaffiliated with Ultiworld but I strongly support their work as a pillar of ultimate journalism) before locking this in. For tracking purposes, I’ve got it as a ‘less confident pick.’
New York vs Carolina, Friday at 7:30 PM CT – Neutral site in Madison, WI
Friday’s marquee matchup will feature one of the best rivalries and current matchups in men’s US ultimate frisbee, pro or otherwise. In 2021 the amateur club counterpart of Carolina won the national championship for the first time in program history, squeaking past New York’s closest counterpart in a thrilling one-point game. This past summer, the two clubs squared off in the World Club Championships, where New York got their revenge and won by three. In pro, Carolina lost to New York in regular season matches in 2019 and 2021 by just one goal in each game (with both going to double overtime), before Carolina got the better of New York in the 2021 Championship Game, winning by three to claim their franchise’s first league title. It truly is a matchup of juggernauts and will be a fantastic game Friday night.
With last year’s rookie of the year Anders Juengst returning to Carolina last weekend after several weeks off, both teams should be at full-strength Friday or close to it. Both Carolina and New York won their divisional championship games by similar close margins, although Carolina’s was never really in doubt, and New York led DC by as many as five goals before letting them creep in toward the end. Like Colorado-Chicago, I expect this game to be close, and unclear who exactly will pull out the victory. New York are the deserving favorites having finished their season undefeated, but a one goal difference in an exhausting game in Texas earlier this season might have seen Carolina undefeated as well. That said, New York has the MVP frontrunner in Ryan Osgar, and arguably the best player in the world in Jack Williams, plus a bevy of other talent, so I definitely agree with them being the favorites. But as we saw in last year’s final where New York were the favorites as well, the game doesn’t always shake out that way, and if there’s a team who can scheme offensively and defensively to give New York fits, it’s Carolina.
In general a 2-point spread leaves little room for error, but with teams this good and this much knowledge about each other, it almost feels too wide. Each team has only a little experience in this field site, so I don’t think there’s an edge there, but I like Carolina to get a little more of the Wisconsin crowd energy as the smaller market team and underdog with New York having not lost a game yet this season. Of course, I give New York the edge for a chip on their shoulder having lost the last pro matchup between the two (and in pretty disappointing fashion). I do think we could see some runs in the game where New York builds an early lead, then Carolina fights back, or vice versa, but by the end we are practically destined to receive an overtime, if not double overtime, bout under the lights in Madison. So I like getting the wiggle room with Carolina +2 -110, and would consider it as a ‘Main Pick’ for tracking. If the line moves to +1.5, I’d probably suggest lowering unit size a bit but I still like it. If it moves to a pick’em I’d probably pass.
For the total, the first two matchups between these teams in 2019 and 2021 sailed over this number (49 and 47 goals respectively) before a lower-scoring finale in 2021 went well under (35 total goals). This is a pretty good line imo and it’s tough to say which side it’ll end up on. I think it’s plausible regular time won’t get into the 40s, but overtime could push it over. With the good weather conditions I lean the over 39.5, but I’m going to wait to see what krdonnie or others think before making a formal pick.
Finals Picks Will Be Posted Friday Night.
l Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
Image Credit: usaultimate.org
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