Divisional Championship
The ‘Penultimate’ Week of Frisbee is Here!
Weekends Best Picks:
in no particular order:
Carolina -1.5 -155 – The 2021 league champions begin their postseason title defense more than a month after their final regular season game, hosting the Austin Sol in what should be a thrilling battle of two elite offenses and highlight-reel defenses. While Carolina hasn’t played AUDL in several weeks, 15 of the 20 players on this weekend’s active roster competed with Carolina’s amateur club roster at the World Club Championships at the end of July, where they finished second overall. Therefore I don’t expect rust to be a major factor, although the first quarter could be a little sloppy as players adjust to the faster pace and larger field. Roster consistency has been a bit of a relative pain point for the Flyers, with various players missing each week due to college commitments, injuries, or other conflicts, but Carolina will field its most complete roster all season this weekend. 2021 Rookie of the Year Anders Juengst is a game-time decision after spending most of the season out with a leg injury. It will be interesting to see how the offense shifts should he play. With Juengst out this season, Alex Davis has excelled as a speedy, shifty receiver on the Flyers o-line, finishing second in the league in total goals. Davis has played much of his career on defense though, and could go back to the d-line with Juengst involved, or it could be a split workload. Dylan Hawkins and Trevor Lynch are also back to bolster the o-line. Carolina has historically choked in the postseason, but they might’ve gotten that monkey off their back last year after statement playoff wins against DC, Chicago, and New York to capture their first league title.
Along with Philadelphia and two of the west division expansion teams, Austin finished the 2022 regular season as one of the most exciting storylines to develop in the league. The Sol went 6-6 in 2021 but had three one-goal losses. This season Austin went 9-3 and upset both Carolina and Atlanta in the regular season, the latter of whom in a stunning four-goal comeback late in the fourth quarter. This will be Austin’s second playoff berth in their six years as a franchise, and their first since 2018, when they lost 26-23 to Carolina. Like Carolina, Austin got reps at the end of July with some of their roster at the World Championships and the rest playing AUDL (obliterating Tampa in a 20-goal rout) but haven’t played since.
Carolina and Austin split their regular season meetings, with Carolina winning the first at home 27-24 after going down 5-1 early in the first quarter. Austin won the second 21-20 at home, however Carolina played in Dallas the previous evening and had to endure significant heat conditions in Austin, and the ending was marred by a controversial no-call that denied Carolina of a chance to potentially tie the game and send it to overtime. That said, Austin did play a better game than Carolina throughout, and will use that win as confidence this weekend. Personnel-wise, Austin’s offensive line and throwing corps are impressive and will challenge Carolina’s elite thrower defense. Austin plays a tight rotation on offense, which I suspect gives Carolina an edge in two ways: Coaching, as Carolina only needs to focus on a few key players, and fatigue, as there aren’t as many subs for the o-line. These aren’t massive edges though, and I fully expect Austin to play hard offensively this weekend.
This will be a close game. Austin is riding the high of an outstanding regular season and Carolina historically has played a little sluggish in the postseason. I do give Carolina the edge with their wealth of experience, stingy defense, and elite coaching. I think Carolina will cover here, but not by much. The ML is a safer play, and would be a nice piece for parlays.
Carolina/Austin o41.5 -110 – As mentioned last week, playoff games tend to be lower-scoring as defenses ratchet up intensity and offenses play with a bit more patience. All three playoff games last weekend went under their respective DraftKings totals, finishing with 41, 38, and 35 goals. That said, two of the teams in those contests had mistake-filled offensive performances (Philadelphia and San Diego), and one of the games (San Diego-SLC) had swirly wind gusts. I think this weekend, with all eight teams being very strong offensively, some of these totals might go over. Carolina-Austin surprisingly has a lower total than the other games on the slate at 41.5, and I think the over is very achievable here for a number of reasons. First, the first regular season meeting soared past this number, and the second might’ve gone beyond it, had Carolina been more rested or scored on the final possession and engaged overtime. Second, both offenses are very sound, with each team ranking top-ten in scores per game, top-six in completions per game, and top-ten in fewest turnovers per game. While each team does play strong, physical defense, the throwing talent by each offense is plentiful and capable of working around whatever defensive sets get thrown in. Third, the weather is gorgeous for offense. There is around a 15% chance of rain, but wind tops out at 3 mph, which is essentially nothing. I don’t think this game will necessarily soar past this total like it did in the first meeting, but I think it should hit mid-40s and cover.
DC +4.5 -125 – After DC’s dismantling of Philadelphia I expected a closer line, but DraftKings is heavy on New York, who are also at least -300 in title futures, if not more. Any other year I’d be all over DC to cover, but while I still like DC’s chances, their injury status and personnel availability is admittedly concerning. One of DC’s primary offensive throwers, Tyler Monroe, is questionable with a hip injury, and DC’s top d-line thrower David Bloodgood is questionable with a back injury. Furthermore, top receiver (by goals per game) Joe Richards is still listed as Dressed (which I believe is akin to ‘Doubtful’), as is talented defender Luke Rehfuss. That said, athletic defenders Troy Holland and Frederick Farah return to the d-line after missing last week’s game, and veteran offensive talent Alan Kolick appears ready to return from injury. So, maybe with a little luck, DC’s roster absences won’t hurt them too much in this win-or-go-home grudge match against the undefeated New York Empire.
New York roared through the regular season, devouring their prey by an average of eight-ish goals, although in my opinion New York played a somewhat soft schedule. Nonetheless, last year’s runner-ups are stacked, featuring MVP frontrunner Ryan Osgar and the best male player in the world in Jack Williams. New York’s offensive line is so strong they moved perennial MVP candidate Ben Jagt over to the d-line and it didn’t faze their offense one bit. New York doesn’t have a particularly strong home field advantage, but they do have an amazing drum corps that fuels crowd energy, and they will be disciplined and hungry, seeking their second title in three seasons.
Despite rumors of a few DC players skipping the playoff game to compete at an amateur club tournament this weekend in Indiana, this is still one of the best rivalries in the league. New York has won seven of the last eight meetings, but all eight came with margins of four or fewer goals, including three one-goal games. With each team playing for their playoff lives, I expect another round of fireworks. I would be surprised if New York lost outright, but this line is too wide for what should be a 2-4 goal win for the Empire.
DC/New York u43.5 -110 – The last meeting between DC and New York went over this total, but the four prior to that went under, as did six in the last eight. These two teams know each other very well, with their proximity and success in both professional and amateur competition producing lots of direct matchups over the years. Statistically, both teams rank top-five in scores per game, but context is important here. Five of the East division’s seven teams finished at .500 or under, all ranking below league average in fewest scores allowed per game. (In other words, DC and New York played a lot of opponents with mediocre defenses.) That’s not to say the DC and NY offenses aren’t skilled enough to drive up this total. But it’s also important to recognize how these offenses play. Each team ranks top-three in fewest turnovers per game and below league average in deep throws per game. So they are patient offenses that prefer to work the disc amongst their throwers for high-percentage scores, rather than say Colorado, Salt Lake City, or Philadelphia who take more chances and rely on their athletic receivers to make big plays. Patient offenses working against strong defenses is a great way to eat up clock and produce lower-scoring games. Additionally, wind is a little sus at 8-10 mph, nothing that good throwers can’t handle, but might cause a few clock-killing turnovers here and there. Ultimately I don’t see New York pushing past 23 goals, and I don’t think DC will finish close enough to trigger overtime and drive the total up. A 23-21 score would go over, but pretty much anything else goes under.
l Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
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