Dominick Cruz – Decision (Once upon a time, wrestling was the bread and butter of Cruz’s game. While Cruz still attempts regular takedowns, they are rarely pursued to the mat. Against Chito Vera, there is always the pathway to the ground, however. The Ecuadorian is a slow starter and can be coaxed into extended grappling exchanges off his back – red flags against a consummate game planner. Still, the confidence that Vera has oozed over 2021-2022 leaves me to believe that Vera will be comfortable eating Cruz’s loopy, point-scoring strikes while waiting for the perfect combination. Cruz is on borrowed time during the twilight of his career, he is slowing with age and increasingly looks hurt by shots that wouldn’t have registered in the past. At thirty-seven years old, we’re backing Cruz as it is a stylistic dream, even with his long injury list)
David Onama – TKO Round 2 (Landwehr’s grinding attritional gameplan broke L’udovit Klein against the cage. There is also a decent counter-striking game that caught both Klein and Darren Elkins by surprise. Unfortunately for Landwehr, he lacks the chin to force wars on the inside and create opportunities to grapple. Nate Train’s pressure could cause Onama to technically unravel as he attempts to maintain a comfortable striking distance. More likely is that the Ugandan’s plus power eventually catches an overzealous Landwehr)
Yazmin Jauregui – Decision (Two Strawweight UFC debutants, Jauregui represents the more educated fighter. Jauregui is confident on the outside, regularly resetting her feet to reestablish her preferred distance. Lucindo’s game is limited to crafty inside boxing and clinch work – but at Women’s Strawweight, that’s often enough. Jauregui is a strong scrambler, however, and should execute the cleaner work to sweep the scorecards)
Azamat Murzakanov – TKO Round 2 (Clark is an exceptional athlete, yet he lacks the tools to punish Murzakanov’s periods of staticity. Not to say that Murzakanov is technically polished, far from it. Yet despite Clark’s technical superiority, he has been overwhelmed by the likes of Ion Cutelaba and Ryan Spann. Eventually, Clark will throw a naked kick or loose strike and allow Murzakanov to snap into a trademark power counter)
Ariane Lipski – Decision (Lipski has matured since her humbling to Joanne Wood. Against Bohm, Lipski was far more confident in setting a methodical pace and denying Bohm the attempt to go strike-for-strike. The same gameplan has to be utilised against Cachoeira, a heavy-handed yet technically devoid striker. The only worry is Lipski’s career inconsistency – Cachoeira, for all her flaws, is one of the most consistent fighters on the books)
Bruno Silva – TKO Round 1 (No matter the craftiness of Meerschaert’s straight counter-punching, Silva owns lights-out power that will eventually catch the flat-footed grappler. Sadly, Meerschaert lacks the wrestling chops to put doubt in Silva’s mind on the feet – not that the Brazilian would change his game plan anyway. Silva is error-prone, so there is always the possibility that he bundles himself to the mat, but GM3’s waning durability is the biggest red flag)
Angela Hill – Decision (Can Hill stop Godinez from chain-wrestling her way to victory? Godinez was pieced apart by Luana Carolina, while Hill’s mastery of angles will bamboozle Godinez. There is a slowing gas tank, however, and a career history of being out-grappled. Add in that Hill represents less of an athletic hurdle to takedown and Godinez has to be favoured. Hill has at times shown adequate TDD against superior wrestlers)
Martin Buday – TKO Round 3 (Buday owns a proper Heavyweight physique, with ridiculous durability to boot. As expected, Buday was capable of digging deep against Chris Barnett and winning off the back of more consistent activity. Brzeski’s edges Buday regarding dynamism and natural fluidity, yet the Pole gasses late in fights and will be unable to fight his preferred fight)
Nina Nunes – Decision (Calvillo can be dragged into a war on the feet and will ignore her strong grappling base. Nunes has always suffered on the mat and it just so happens that the UFC has chucked her in with two of the best on the mat. If Calvillo pursues aims to grapple, this could be interesting. Recent fights indicate that Calvillo is adamant about striking her way back to form, allowing Nunes’ pressure and volume to claim rounds on the scorecards)
Charlie Ontiveros – TKO Round 1 (The spiciest pick of the fight card. Benitez and Ontiveros’ paper-thin durability ensures that any strike could be the finishing blow. Benitez’s drop in speed has seen him caught whilst committing to heavy kicks, with Ontiveros’ reach long enough to punish the veteran. Still, opponents can adjust to Ontiveros’ pressure by the mid-point of the first round. The Mexican’s ripping bodywork is safer to back at the fight ender, yet I have a soft spot for the complete mess that is Ontiveros’ all-action offence)
Ode Osbourne – Decision (Osbourne’s questionable durability is a worry against the heavy hands of Nam. The fast-twitch striker often beats opponents to the punch, yet Nam has a track record of eating one to deliver one. If the Jamaican could start to mask his entries, his athletic edge can keep up with anyone in the division. Considering Nam’s time on the sidelines and Osbourne’s activity, I’m favouring the latter in a razor-close affair)
Josh Quinlan – TKO Round 2 (PEDs issues in the build-up to Quinlan’s UFC debut have sullied his emergence – is he still a phenomenal athlete off the sauce? One issue is Quinlan’s tendency to walk into his straight punches, squaring up in a manner that will offer Witt the opportunity to wrestle. The veteran’s chin issues will provide a pathway to victory, however, as he lacks the speed or physical prowess to overpower opponents)
Youssef Zalal – Decision (Without the technical consistency or the superiority on the mat, Blackshear will have to create a messy fight or hope that Zalal’s weight cut to 135lb is too much. This is the last chance for Zalal’s hype train to choke back to life. Blackshear can throw up the odd explosive strike on the feet, yet Zalal’s comfort on the outside should neutralise any serious threat)
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