Playoff frisbee is here!
Divisional Semifinal Round Lines and Totals – Not my picks, these are just the lines
Indianapolis +4.5 at Minnesota (Total: 43.5) – Saturday at 6 PM Central
Philadelphia +2.5 at DC (43.5) – Saturday at 7 PM Eastern
San Diego +2.5 at Salt Lake City (42.5) – Saturday at 7 PM Mountain
Betting Picks:
Philadelphia +2.5 -145 – Philadelphia enters the playoffs for the first time in almost a decade, with their last appearance coming in 2013, one year after winning the inaugural AUDL Championship as the Philadelphia Spinners. The now-Phoenix will travel to DC in what should be a very exciting matchup with an opponent that defeated the Phoenix twice in the regular season, but by just one goal in each game. Philadelphia actually led midway through the fourth quarter in each game, but still managed to lose both in heart breaking fashion. Philadelphia as a whole has six losses on the season, but four of which were by just one goal. In my mind, this record is part of why Philadelphia might still be getting slept on a bit. Flip a couple of those losses around and Philadelphia is suddenly 8-4 or 9-3, hell maybe even hosting DC in this 2v3 divisional playoff game. It’s tough to beat an opponent three times, especially when the margins were this close. I think this game is where Philadelphia can really prove themselves as a playoff contender and go toe to toe with the vaunted DC Breeze.
DC went undefeated against non-New York opponents this season but had some shaky moments, surviving a young Toronto team by one goal and needing overtime to beat Boston on the road, although to their credit they did produce a few blowouts as well. DC has been dealing with a number of injuries or other conflicts throughout the season and that looks to still be the case this weekend as they may miss multiple starters. Joe Richards is probably the biggest potential miss as the team leader in goals per game. No Zach Norrbom could also sting for their offensive line, although he’s been out for a month at this point so DC has probably adjusted somewhat. Defensively Rhys Bergeron is listed as questionable, Duncan Fitzgerald as out, and Frederick Farah as ‘Dressed’ (which I think is basically ‘doubtful’). These losses are stymied by Delrico Johnson and David Cranston returning to the line up after each missing a number of games. Overall I wouldn’t lose sleep over these roster absences given the depth of DC to begin with, but every little bit helps for Philadelphia who are nearly full-strength, save for maybe Dustin Damiano on the o-line.
I expect each team to bring their A-game to this matchup. DC has more experience, better coaching, and home field advantage, but Philadelphia is athletic, hungry, and should still have a good fan presence given their city’s proximity to DC. I like Philadelphia to keep it close, cover this spread, and sniff at a potential upset, although I think the ML odds are pretty accurate (I’d pick Philly to win three times if this game was played ten times, which puts them close to +225).
Indianapolis +4.5 -115 – Like every road dog in this slate, Indianapolis lost twice to their playoff host in the regular season, but unlike the others, one of Indy’s losses was REALLY bad, losing by a whopping fifteen goals on the road in Minnesota. Indianapolis did not have their o-line leader Keegan North nor d-line leader Xavier Payne for that game, though, and played vastly better in their second matchup against Minnesota, so I’m inclined to toss out the first matchup when considering how this one might play out. Indianapolis are among the most dominant first quarter performers in the league, winning ten of twelve this season, and set a league all-time record for best d-line conversion rate at over 68%. (This means when their opponents coughed up the disc on offense, Indy scored on over two-thirds of those possessions.) These trends come despite Indy finishing with a 6-6 record with multiple blowout losses and needing a Madison loss against Chicago to secure the Cats’ playoff berth. It’s an interesting conundrum for Indianapolis: They are confident and disciplined early, but lose control quickly, yet their defensive line is skilled enough to claw back into games when opposing offenses make mistakes. However, they need opposing offenses to make those mistakes, as Indy ranks bottom-five in blocks per game.
Minnesota will pose a significant challenge for Indianapolis. The Wind Chill led 13-9 at halftime of their most recent meeting and looked poised to run away with that game. A weaker second half for Minnesota and a resurgent Indianapolis offense ensured the game remained competitive, but Minnesota still won comfortably by three. That game was also in Indianapolis whereas the playoff matchup will be in St Paul, and Minnesota didn’t have three offensive starters whom they should have for this game: receivers Cole Jurek and Michael Jordan, and thrower Tony Poletto. Andrew Roy is playing his best ultimate of the year commanding the offense, which is important since their best chance of winning this game involves limiting Indy’s dangerous d-line counter attack. The easiest way to do that is to simply not turn over the disc in the first place. Even if they do cough it up, Indianapolis’ d-line offense relies heavily on two throwers in Xavier Payne and Brett Matzuka, and they’ll be without Matzuka for this matchup, putting a lot of pressure on Payne to run that line. Minnesota defensively boasts a top-three ranking in fewest scores allowed and blocks per game and should have a raucous home crowd behind them. Minnesota are winless in playoff games as a franchise (0-5), but I think that kinda helps them here, as they’ll be especially fired up to win their first ever. There could be a bit of wind which gives the edge to Minnesota’s throwers as well.
I have high confidence in Minnesota winning this game, but the line is interesting here. I would have personally set it at Minnesota -3.5, so I think there’s some value on the Indy side. Indianapolis has experience and athleticism and won’t give up to the end, keeping the possibility of a backdoor cover afloat should Minnesota build a lead after the first quarter. I would guess Indianapolis loses by 3-5 goals, so the Indy side definitely isn’t a lock or anything, but at +4.5 I think there’s more to gain on this side than the other side. It’s certainly my least confident spread pick.
San Diego +2.5 -110 – San Diego heads to Salt Lake City as the most likely team to spring an underdog upset, with two of the league’s top analysts (Adam Ruffner and Daniel Cohen) picking San Diego to win outright, although a third (Evan Lepler) went SLC to win. At the very minimum, San Diego should play better than their most recent meeting where they lost by five in an ugly road loss where they got beaten down early missing several starters. Since being swept on that trip east (their other loss coming to the division-leading Colorado) the Growlers are 4-0, including getting revenge in a statement victory over Colorado. The Growlers will have more starters for their rematch this weekend, getting back captain Goose Helton and defensive starters Steven Milardovich and Trevor Purdy, but disappointingly will not have d-line thrower Chris Mazur or o-line receiver Jesse Cohen. Nonetheless, this is a veteran corps with many playing for several years in the league, going to battle against a new expansion team in the Salt Lake City Shred. As mentioned above, beating a team three times is hard, especially against a team as experienced as the Growlers.
Salt Lake City has developed one of the most explosive offenses in the league, ranking just second in scores per game behind New York. They are extremely athletic, backed by one of the stronger high school and college scenes in the nation, and roster one of the best deep defenders in the league in Joel Clutton. Ben Green when he’s played has also been fantastic on defense. The Growlers offense will need to perform at their best to surpass this hungry defense, at home, in front of a crowd likely to be packed. On offense, SLC has an MVP candidate in Jordan Kerr and downfield star receiver in Joe Merrill. San Diego’s best chance of winning here will likely be to lock these two up, but that’s of course easier said than done. SLC also has an outstanding coach who will surely have a game plan should the Growlers focus on Kerr or Merrill. SLC will have nearly a full-strength roster present and an elevation acclimation advantage.
While SLC’s resume is impressive as a whole, it’s their last few games that make this matchup more interesting. SLC needed to mount second-half comebacks against mid-tier LA and Oakland, trailing by three at various points in each game, and while they toasted Portland in their final game of the season, SLC still turned the disc over 22 times. In fact, after starting the season with four of five games finishing with fewer than 19 turnovers, each of their next seven they’ve had 19+ turnovers. Compare to the Growlers who have 19+ turnovers in just one of their last five games (two of their last eight). The Growlers don’t generate nearly as many blocks as the athletic Shred do, though, which is why SLC is able to still dominate games despite their turnovers.
Ultimately, we think this is a golden opportunity for San Diego to not only go toe to toe with SLC, but reach for a potential victory. It won’t be easy, and I wouldn’t put more than a half-unit on the SD ML, but I think if this game occurs ten times, San Diego wins four or even five, so there’s good value at +220.
Parlays:
I think probably the safe-ish three-leg parlay would be Minnesota ML -500, Philadelphia +2.5 -145, and San Diego +2.5 -110. According to a parlay calculator this should be +287. If you want to get a little more frisky, could substitute San Diego +2.5 for ML +220. I wouldn’t suggest more than a half unit on these parlays.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
Image Credit: usaultimate.org
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