PGA Tour Tips
Date: Aug 4–7, 2022
Players will be heading to Sedgefield Country Club in Guilford County, North Carolina for the FedEx Cup regular season finale. Designed by Donald Ross, this par 70 course stretches approximately 7,131 yards. Last year marked the first time since 2015 that the winning score was below 20 under, with a thrilling six-man playoff ending in Kevin Kisner’s victory through an eagle on the second hole. This highlights the relatively short length of the par 5s at this course. While the rough was grown out more than usual last year, it is uncertain if the same will occur this year, and local input regarding the rough length would be valuable.
Firstly, it is worth noting that course history does hold some significance at Sedgefield. The field history suggests that there are more golfers than usual with consistently strong finishes, particularly among the top performers. Therefore, I will be considering course history more extensively this week and focusing on golfers who have consistently performed well at this venue.
Moving on to the course breakdown, two key aspects stand out. Over a quarter of the approach shots will come from the 150-175 yard range, which is more than 7% higher than the tour average. Additionally, there are eight par 4s ranging from 400-450 yards. These two statistics will heavily influence my analysis. Furthermore, driving distance at this course is slightly below the tour average. Given the abundance of 400-450 yard par 4s and approach shots from 150-175 yards, this suggests that players tend to play more conservatively off the tee. Despite the distance capabilities of most players on tour, one would expect them to be targeting the 100-150 yard range for approach shots. If the rough is grown out again, we can anticipate a similar approach with an emphasis on hitting fairways and accepting slightly longer approach shots.
Another noteworthy statistic is the fact that three-putts at Sedgefield are more than 10% higher than the tour average. This can be attributed in part to the easier-to-hit greens, providing more opportunities for three-putts. Nevertheless, it suggests that putting will be more important than usual this week. Considering the higher three-putt rate, I will also include Strokes Gained: Putting from 5-10 feet in my analysis.
Par 5 scoring will once again be significant, as the two par 5s at Sedgefield are exceptionally easy. Both boast birdie rates over 50% and eagle rates of 4.2% and 6.3%. Settling for par on these holes is likely to result in losing ground to the field, but they also present excellent opportunities for eagles, as demonstrated by Kevin Kisner’s memorable performance. In my analysis, I will focus on par 5 scoring from 500-550 yards, as overall par 5 scoring won’t provide much differentiation since nearly everyone in the field will have a chance to reach the greens in two shots.
Lastly, it’s worth mentioning some notable players with strong course history who deserve consideration. Webb Simpson has recorded top 10 finishes in seven of his last eight appearances, along with an 11th place finish the year prior. Regardless of his current form, Simpson is a reliable choice at this venue. Billy Horschel has three top 10 finishes and an 11th place finish in his last five appearances, showing consistent improvement each year. Si Woo Kim has a victory and three additional top 5 finishes in six appearances, indicating his comfort and success at this course. Harold Varner III (HVIII) hails from Gastonia, which is about an hour and a half away, and while he hasn’t found great success here yet, he has two top 10 finishes in six appearances, making him a local player to watch.
Key Stats
SG: Approach w/focus on 150-175 yards
Par 4 scoring 400-450 yards
Fairways Gained
Par 5 Scoring 500-550 yards
SG: Putting Bermuda
Our Picks:
Shane Lowry, @16/1 Our Main Pick
Shane Lowry, a professional golfer from Ireland, competes on both the European Tour and the PGA Tour. He has garnered significant recognition for his accomplishments, including notable victories such as the 2019 Open Championship and the 2015 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. Additionally, in 2009, while still an amateur, Lowry triumphed at the Irish Open, showcasing his talent and potential in the early stages of his career.
Webb Simpson, @22/1
Billy Horschel, @16/1
Si Woo Kim, @22/1
Most Firms Paying 8 Places (so back ew) on big odd picks.
Image Credit: golf.com
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