Ultimate Frisbee Tips
Got To Catch Them All
Play-Offs:
The championship playoff games are August 26-27, we will post daily picks for that weekend but here is our future thoughts.
First, an explanation of playoff format. There are four divisions, each with 5-7 teams. Central, East, West, South. The Central, East, and West have a 2v3 divisional playoff game followed by a divisional championship game with the 1-seed taking on the winner of the 2v3. The South only has a 1v2 divisional championship game. All games are single elimination with the loser going home. The four division champions converge in Madison where they play semi-finals and final, single-elimination as well, to crown a league champion.
The Favourite: New York Empire -220
New York wrapped up their second undefeated season in three years (12-0), defeating opponents by an average margin of over eight goals (which is a lot for ultimate). New York has looked like not only the best team in the league this year, but one of the best teams in the entire league’s history. They have one of the best offenses and one of the best defenses, and after losing narrowly in the final last year to then-Raleigh (now Carolina), the Empire will be hungry to try to win their second title. Realistically, they are probably going to win, but there is not really much value at -220. That’s probably the high end of where I’d put them, between that and -150 somewhere. Verdict: NY will probably win, but no value at these odds
The Contenders: Carolina +300, Colorado +250, Chicago +600
If anyone is going to beat New York, it will likely be one of the three C’s. Carolina are the defending league champions and went 11-1 this year, with their only loss being a 1-point defeat to Austin on the second day of a road doubleheader featuring a controversial officiating no-call. The biggest knock against New York would likely be their relatively easy schedule, with five of the seven teams in their division currently sporting losing records. Carolina on the other hand played Austin (8-3, likely to be 9-3) and Atlanta (7-4, likely to be 8-4) a combined five times, winning four. Carolina has arguably the deepest team in the league, and enjoy excellent chemistry, with over twenty of their players spending their double bye playing amateur club at the World Ultimate Club Championships going on in Ohio this week. (New York, for comparison, has fewer than ten players together on their amateur club team at this same event.) Carolina topped New York last season in the championship and have the best chance out of any team to upset New York again. Winning back-to-back championships isn’t easy though. Verdict: Value-wise, not much, this is a pretty fair line. But if you want to root for an underdog, and have a decent chance of making $, this is probably the move.
Colorado (Denver) have put together an impressive season as an expansion team, going 10-1 (likely 11-1 after this weekend) with their only loss being to fellow playoff opponent and last year’s West Division champion (pre-expansion), San Diego. If Colorado wins their divisional playoff, they will likely slot in as the 3rd seed or 4th seed at championship weekend, playing either Carolina or New York in the semifinal, respectively. The West division has been kind of all over the place this year, with Portland and Seattle having revolving door rosters and LA and Oakland starting out kinda meh but playing stronger ultimate as of late. But in general, finishing the year with only one loss in any division is very solid. Colorado have a tough road to championship weekend, though. San Diego led wire-to-wire in their most recent meeting with Colorado ultimately falling 23-20. Salt Lake City has regressed a bit lately but played a good game against Colorado in their first meeting with Colorado eking out a one-goal win. (The second meeting was pretty lopsided in favor of Colorado, though). Furthermore, receiving star Jay Froude has been dealing with a hamstring injury, and Alex Atkins has missed a few games as of late, not sure why. I presume both will play in the playoff but it would definitely hamper their chances if one or both were to sit out. Assuming they make it to championship weekend, Colorado’s newness as a program will be put to the test playing against experienced New York and Carolina teams. West coast teams tend to play a bit different than other teams, with more willilngness to shoot deep and play defense on turnovers. It helps that a few of the Colorado players have experience on other AUDL teams, though. Ultimately I think these odds are wrong, Carolina should be the second favorite and Colorado should be more like +600. Verdict: Pass due to crap odds. If you want to bet an underdog take Carolina or Chicago
Chicago is an interesting team given three of their star players have barely played with the team this year due to international team conflicts. Despite those absences Chicago has gone 9-1 and will likely be either 11-1 or 10-2 after this weekend. Those three players, Joe White, Dalton Smith, and Tim Schoch, are strong offensive weapons that will likely play on Chicago’s d-line, giving Chicago a great chance to score should their opponents turn the disc over. Chicago also has recent gold-medal winning Team USA star Nate Goff, plus a bevy of o-line stars. Chicago took Carolina to a thrilling one-point overtime loss in last year’s championship semi-final and will be hungry for revenge should they meet again in this year’s semi-final. At full-strength, Chicago have arguably the third-best chance of winning the title, maybe even second-best if they get hot against Carolina. Their challenge, and the reason I’d put them third behind Carolina, is they don’t have the best mental game and they have a bit tougher divisional final than Carolina does. So there’s a chance they get upset in the divisional playoffs whereas Carolina is pretty much a lock to make the championship semi-finals. Verdict: In terms of pure value, this is the best value play. Fair odds should be closer to +300 or +400.
The Long Shots: DC +2000, Salt Lake City +3500, San Diego +5000
Let’s be clear: The winning AUDL team is almost certainly going to be one of the four above. That said, I know from other sports it can be fun to sprinkle on some heavy dogs. I don’t know if DK offers cash-outs on futures, but if they do there could be some value here.
DC lost to eventual champion Carolina by one in overtime in a divisional playoff game last season and have looked a bit weaker this year, but overall still possess a ton of raw talent. Their issues are two-fold: First they are dealing with injuries. Second they have to go through New York to make championship semi-finals, and they’ve lost to New York twice this regular season by three and four goals respectively. I would feel better about a DC long shot if at least one of those meetings was a closer one-goal game. DC will first have to beat Philadelphia in the 2v3 which they will probably do, but their two regular season victories over Philly were each one-goal nailbiters, so it’s not a lock. DC then has to beat New York in New York. Thankfully New York has a pretty small stadium and not much home field advantage. Nonetheless it will be a tough battle for DC with a red hot New York dialed in. All that said, DC-New York remains one of the best rivalries in the league for a reason. If they do pull off the incredible and upset New York their championship odds will shorten drastically, although I’d still take Carolina and Chicago over them to win.
Salt Lake City and San Diego will go head to head in the 2v3 game in the West. San Diego were the division champions from last year but that was pre-expansion. Now they finished third in their regular season division with Colorado and Salt Lake City finishing ahead. San Diego will have to travel twice if they want to win the division, first to Utah then to Colorado. Both SLC and Colorado have excellent crowds and elevation acclimation advantages. San Diego, however, has tons of experience compared to SLC and Colorado being expansion teams. San Diego also seems to be clicking more than SLC who has stumbled a bit in their last couple of games. I think there’s a very real chance San Diego upsets SLC in the 2v3. Colorado will be a much tougher test though, and will have a chip on their shoulder having lost the last meeting. If SLC can stave off San Diego, their match against Colorado should be close and interesting. SLC has two of the top athletes in the division in Jordan Kerr and Joe Merrill. If they go superhero mode maybe they can upset Colorado. The issue with both SLC and San Diego is I don’t think either can realistically beat New York, who they’ll face in the semi-final, or Carolina, who they might face in the final. SLC would have to really lean into their deep game and athleticism and San Diego would have to perform a blood sacrifice to the frisbee gods. Anything can happen in the sport of flat ball, though.
Passing on: Minnesota +900
Minnesota is the only other team who might reach championship semi-finals and therefore worth discussing. Minnesota are the second best team in the Central and will likely battle Chicago in the 1v2 game assuming they don’t implode against Indianapolis or Madison. In three regular season meetings, Chicago has won two with Minnesota winning one. Each game was closely fought. Chicago will be favorites against Minnesota in the 1v2 but have had some mental issues in the past. I wouldn’t be shocked if Minnesota upset Chicago, even with Chicago having a better roster and home field advantage. Minnesota’s challenge is that I don’t think they can beat New York or Carolina, and they will play New York in the semi-final if they beat Chicago. That’s a similar feeling to the long shots above, but the difference is Minnesota is +900. They should be +2000 at best. Therefore, it’s not really worth it unless you’re a Minnesota homer.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
Image Credit: usaultimate.org
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