UFC 277: Juliana Pena vs Amanda Nunes
Pena vs Nunes
Pena: Pena is an orthodox pressure fighter who wants to get the fight to the ground. Pena has excellent grappling and is relentless in her pursuit of the submission. She has very good level change feints which she uses to set up her striking, and conversely, set up her take downs. She is willing to stifle her opponents kick range with pressure and take shots to land her own. Pena is a momentum fighter and once she gets her game rolling, she is hard to stop. Pena’s always forward mentality can often backfire, leading her to get caught in transitions on the ground. Pena has a solid jab and left hook, and throws punches in bunches. Her cardio is excellent, and her self-belief allows her to push through damage and she doesn’t break.
Nunes: Nunes is widely considered the greatest female fighter of all time. She has been a champion at two weight classes, as well as defeating the other best female fighter in the world, Valentina Shevchenko. Nunes is a powerful, precise striker and is a black belt in BJJ. Nunes opens up with her jab and calf kick, which is very powerful, and she uses this to set up her powerful slightly looping cross, which she throws over her opponent’s lead hand in closed stance. Nunes has the ability to control, damage, and submit on the ground. Nunes is most dangerous in the first two rounds, and if she doesn’t find a finish here, she typically goes to a decision.
Prediction: Before the last fight, we thought that Nunes was going to run through Pena. Looking at the first round of their last fight, I almost want to say the same thing. But, Pena showed her heart and grit, and that if you can weather the storm that Nunes brings, you can make her human. I think Nunes was thinking after the first round that it was going to go like that in the second round. The opening sequence of the second round, Pena came out like a marauder and was landing on Nunes, and Nunes wanted to get those shots back, as well as make Pena respect her power, which she wasn’t. I think this led to a break in game plan and character from Nunes, and Pena took the momentum from there, trading in the middle and imposing her will. Nunes has since claimed that she was injured, had a bad camp, etc. All of that being said, IF Nunes can keep her composure and range, she beats Pena in the first three rounds.
How Pena could win: Pena very well may show up and do the exact same thing she did last time. I think how this fight goes really depends on how Nunes shows up. Nunes has changed up her entire training camp, and has been talking about retirement since before the Pena fight. Pena knows that she can land on and hurt Nunes, and that will make her even more willing to go forward and trade with her, which can either be in her favour, or be her downfall. Pena will not quit on herself, and I’m sure has made adjustments from the last fight. Pena by submission or UD.
Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara France
France: France is a high level striker out of New Zealand’s City Kickboxing. France has great fundamental striking that he uses very well mixed with his feints. He likes to stay on the outside and feint his way into punching range and throw when his opponent throws.. He employs a good high guard, and fights behind his jab and overhand right. When he connects with his OH right, France can hurt anybody. France has shown much improvement on the ground, and is very good at working through bad positions step by step back to his feet. He has good scrambling and back defense. France has shown improvement in every fight and his mindset and confidence has evolved as well.
Moreno: Moreno is an orthodox pressure fighter who is extremely well rounded, and has incredible hand speed and grit. Moreno is a high level grappler as well, with a black belt in BJJ and 11 submission wins. Moreno is very good at drawing shots out of his opponents with his hover pressure and firing quick combinations on the back end. Moreno threatens high kicks with his lead leg and blasts his opponents arms when they block, a strategy he used in the first fight with Kai to take power away from his OH right. Once Moreno gets his momentum going, he is hard to stop. He has a great high guard, and will stay in the pocket to exchange. His pressure over 5 rounds is overwhelming, and unless you can do something to keep him at bay, he is very hard to deal with.
Prediction: We think this fight is electric and looks a lot like the last fight, and over 5 rounds we have to give the edge to Moreno, given that his last 3 fights were all 5 rounders. I think it will be very close and competitive, but once Moreno gets his snowball rolling, we think it will be hard for Kai to catch up. I think Kai has more power, but Moreno does a good job staying safe, and his hand speed will score more than Kai’s power. Moreno has been the champion before, and this is familiar territory for him. Moreno gets the UD on sig strikes.
Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich
Lewis: Lewis is a massive heavyweight with crazy power in his hands. His game plan is always the same, which is to catch you with hands at some point in 3 rounds. Lewis will wait and wait, playing high guard, waiting to explode with combinations at his opponents. He is good at avoiding shots to the head, but is willing and will take shots to land his own. Lewis’s power is scary, and carries through the whole fight. He likes big movements and will open with head kicks as well. He has the most KO’s in UFC history.
Pavlovich: Pavlovich is a huge heavyweight with very fast and powerful hands. His boxing is excellent, and he is very good at hitting and angling off. He uses level change feints and finds his range with his lead hand. Pavlovich likes to move straight into boxing range, not using many kicks. He is very good at holding centre and keeping opponents at bay with the threat of his right hand and his hover pressure. Pavlovich does a great job holding centre and not following, but cutting off the cage. Pavlovich likes to throw first and third, throwing on the back end of his opponents shots he draws out.
Prediction: These boys aren’t coming to grapple. Lewis wants to get the quick KO and go home. Pavlovich seems to have the same idea, seeing as he’s only gotten out of the first round 3 times in his career, the last one being in 2017. Lewis would be wise not to engage with Sergei in the pocket in the first round, and try to draw him to the later rounds where his power may weaken. I think Lewis is crafty enough to do so, and apparently has been putting in more S&C work than ever before, which may be part of his plan to bring Sergei to deep water. It all depends on what Derrick shows up. Based on momentum, and Sergei’s only loss being his UFC debut to Overeem, I think Sergei probably takes this one via KO rd 1 or 2 or UD.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Anthony Smith
Ankalaev: Ankalaev is an absolute technician and has a very high fight IQ. Magomed fights primarily as a southpaw, but has the ability to switch, and prefers to fight in open stance. He has good lateral movement, and uses his teep and straight punches to keep range. He does a very good job pulling his opponents to his preferred foot position and throwing his left cross. He is very good at entering just in range, throwing, and leaving just out of range. He has good level change feints and times his kick catches to TD’s very well. He does a good job using his movement to make reads and setting traps. He uses his check hook to stop opponents from entering and is extremely efficient with his shot selection, as well as knowing what shots are available for his opponent, and making them unavailable.
Smith: Smith is an orthodox fighter and a veteran of 50 fights, and has championship experience. He opens with powerful calf kicks and has a very stiff jab. He sometimes throws his kicks naked which he gets countered by hands with. He has a powerful left hook that he will double up on. He has very good transitions on the mat, as well as submission ability.
Prediction: I think Ankalaev is the man. His only loss is a triangle to Paul Craig in the last second of the last round of their fight. Anthony Smith said something like “Ankalaev is a great mixed martial artist, but he’s in a fight.” That doesn’t give me too much confidence that Smith really has a gameplan for Ankalaev, which makes sense, because according to Smith he just starting gameplanning for fights, and Ankalaev really have any holes. The only time he really gets hit is moving backwards, but he also lands heavy shots or takedowns on his opponents as they blitz. I think Ankalaev coasts to a UD on the outside.
Alex Perez vs Alexandre Pantoja
Alex Perez: Perez has great wrestling, top control, and really good fundamental striking. He likes to find his range with his calf kick, and he throws it often once he finds it. It is one of his main weapons in closed stance. He likes to work his way into punching range behind his high guard and calf-kicks, and throw two and three punch boxing combinations, and then exit the pocket. He will play the jab-calf kick game, and enter the pocket off of this throwing his combinations. His boxing sets up his wrestling, and will go under punches if guys return in the pocket with him. On top, he has tremendous pressure, and will look for heavy ground and pounds and submissions once he establishes position.
Pantoja: Pantoja is a high high level grappler and has power in his hands. He moves forward behind his punches and is willing to trade in the pocket. He will blitz behind his 3 and 4 punch combinations to try and clinch, but is perfectly happy to trade power shots as well. He has very good fundamentals, but is less defensively sound. On the mat, Pantoja is dangerous everywhere. He has an active guard and beautiful transitions and sweeps.
Prediction: This is a competitive, fun fight, but I think Pantoja is just better everywhere. He has wins over Moreno and Kai, and had a FOTN with the reigning champion. Perez has had bad luck with cancellations, and is coming off of a 2 year layoff, with his last fight was him getting finished by Figgy in the first round. I think these two will exchange, Perez will shoot, and Pantoja will win the scrambles on the mat. Pantoja by submission or UD.
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