Ultimate Frisbee Tips
Got To Catch Them All
Week 14 Picks:
Madison +3.5 -110 – This line apparently opened at even odds before quickly moving to Chicago -3.5. I would agree this game should not be even odds, but 3.5 goals is an overreaction. Madison are fighting for their playoff lives and will host Chicago in one of the best home field advantages in the league. Madison historically has played Chicago well. 2019 is when Chicago kinda turned the corner as a team and in their six meetings since then Madison has won twice, and lost by margins of three or fewer goals thrice. The other game was a five-goal loss. Chicago will be without Joe White, Dalton Smith, and Tim Schoch who I mentioned in the futures writeup as being three big pickups for the team heading into the postseason. They haven’t played with Chicago for much of the season though. More pressing is missing Kyle Rutledge and Paul Arters on offense, plus Eli Artemakis is still nursing an injury. To Chicago’s credit, they get Team USA’s Nate Goff back to anchor the d-line, and Jeff Weis is playing his best ultimate as a receiver. Madison will have some key absences of their own in Victor Luo, star o-line thrower, plus no Jack Kelly, Tom Annen, or Avery or Austin Johnson, all of whom are o-line starters. For a team whose main struggle this season has been offense, this is not ideal. But it just means the next player will have to step up, and they have players with good athleticism and plenty of passion. At the end of the day, this line is too wide for a game that will likely be closely fought. A sprinkle on the ML +285 is worth considering, though only a sprinkle.
Madison/Chicago u42.5 -110 – In their six meetings since Chicago became a competitive team again, Madison-Chicago games have gone over this total just twice, with their most recent meeting going over but by a single goal. Both teams are missing offensive starters and Madison especially will need to lean on their defense if they want to pull out the upset and have a chance at playoffs. In Madison’s backyard, I like this game to be closely fought and competitive. I think at most it will go into the low 40s but there’s a good chance it doesn’t even hit 40.
Portland +7.5 -110 at Salt Lake City – Portland finally slowed the bleeding last week against San Diego putting together their first respectable performance in weeks. Sure, they lost by five, but they actually won the first quarter and it was a one-goal game at half. For a Portland team who has been plagued by roster absences all year, I consider this a positive sign. Their roster misfortunes will alleviate slightly against Salt Lake City, but only slightly. Eli Friedman is one of the team’s elite offensive players who has missed a bunch of games and he’s back to help reduce Leandro Marx’s workload. Chris Larberg, formerly of Dallas, will also be making his Portland debut. Larberg has historically been a d-line player so he’ll probably slot in there, but with his AUDL experience Portland might consider him on the o-line. Meanwhile SLC will be mostly complete, but one of their top receivers Joe Merrill is a late inactive. That could be big, Merrill does a lot of work for SLC. The Shred do get Ben Green back on defense after weeks away, and giant Joel Clutton will also be back to patrol the deep air space. SLC underwhelmed the past two games against Oakland and LA, needing multi-goal comebacks to survive each opponent. I fully expect a confident SLC victory, but I think Portland’s somewhat positive regression and the personnel advantages will keep them within a 5-7 goal loss.
LA +2.5 -110 – Los Angeles and Oakland traded blows last week, with LA taking an early 3-0 lead before Oakland brought it back and tied it at 4-4. LA crumbled in the second quarter, scoring just a single goal, but played close the rest of the game. Both teams will be missing a few pieces for the rematch. Oakland won’t have a couple o-line starters in Matthew Kissmann and Robert Yeagle. Los Angeles will be without o-line starters of their own in KJ Koo and Matt Miller. It’s tough to project exactly what’s going to happen here. Both teams are kind of mid-tier programs who have had some bright spots but also some bad spots this season. With LA losing the first of two meetings on the road in Oakland, I think they will play with a chip on their shoulder for their final home game of the year and take Oakland to a tight match. I would put this as a coin flip game or a slight edge toward Oakland. Therefore +2.5 is good value and I would consider some on the ML +230 but no more than a half-unit.
Ottawa +4.5 -110 at Philadelphia – Read my thoughts on Ottawa at DC below first. Basically, take the Ottawa roster absences from that game and wipe them clean as all three of Nick Boucher, Geoff Bevan, and Alec Arsenault are listed as active here. I do suggest taking that with a grain of salt, though. All three will have played at Worlds all this week including on Friday. From what I’ve heard, they are flying into Philadelphia either on Friday or Saturday, so it’s a quick turnaround to play AUDL Saturday night. That being said, the trio has only played one or two games each day during the week. So their physical fatigue shouldn’t be awful, especially on a smaller field for amateur club. I just wonder if they’ll be able to shift gears mentally and fight hard against Philadelphia. If they do this will be an easy cover against a Philadelphia team whose first meeting with Ottawa was a one-goal nailbiter win for Philly. Philadelphia is getting back Jordan Rhyne offensively and Nate Little will bolster the d-line, but they won’t have Alex Thorne on o-line and Matt Esser on d-line. Ottawa’s mentality in their last doubleheader roadtrip impressed me, taking an early lead on New York and a close game at half despite losing a heartbreaker to Boston the night before. I doubt Ottawa will beat DC on Friday but I think the Saturday additions will spur confidence and they’ll keep it competitive against Philadelphia. Depending on how they play against DC on Friday I could foresee some value on the ML +330, but no more than a sprinkle.
Philadelphia/Ottawa o43.5 -110 – This is straightforward. Neither Philadelphia nor Ottawa play compelling defense, and both teams will have plenty of offensive firepower. Ottawa get back their star throwers in Boucher and Bevan, and Philly leads the league in deep throw attempts. The last meeting went to 45 goals. Weather looks solid. Plus, Ottawa might be a bit fatigued in their second game of a road-trip doubleheader. I wish this line was a little lower but I think there’s a solid chance this goes over.
Dallas -1.5 -110 – Dallas’ disaster of a season wraps up Saturday, needing a win to avoid a winless record heading into the offseason. They will get a rematch against Tampa, who they lost to by two in a wild back-and-forth game last weekend. That was Dallas’ second game of an east coast doubleheader and now Tampa will play Dallas in the second game of their own doubleheader. I think this will fare worse for Tampa though given the Texas heat. Dallas continues to be plagued by roster absences and injuries and that won’t change this weekend with Michael Matthis and Griffin Miller both late inactives, and already missing Jimmy Zuraw offensively. They do retain the throwing skills of Brandon Malecek and athleticism of Andrew Watson. Ultimately this is just kind of a gut play for a Dallas team seeking revenge and getting a soft and fatigued opponent. I don’t think Dallas will blow out Tampa, but I think it will be a decent 2-4 goal win.
Colorado/Portland u45.5 -110 – Portland heads into Denver sporting one of the weakest offenses in the division going up against one of the best defenes in the division. Portland will be missing a lot of o-line stars per usual whereas Colorado will have essentially everyone on defense. What makes this game interesting though is Colorado will be missing significant o-line pieces of their own in Jon Nethercutt, Jay Froude, and Alex Atkins. They still have good throwers in Matt Jackson and Danny Landesman but I don’t see them scoring past 25 unless Portland absolutely implodes. And I don’t see Portland reaching 20 goals against this Colorado defense.
*Note Some teams play twice this week so keep an eye on results.
All Matches are U.S Based, Enjoy
Image Credit: usaultimate.org
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