3M PGA Golf Picks
Who Wins
Date: Jul 21–24, 2022
The 3M Open is a renowned golf tournament on the PGA Tour, held at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, which is a suburb situated north of Minneapolis. The event was announced by the PGA Tour in June 2018 and made its debut in 2019, taking place from July 4 to July 7. The tournament is proudly sponsored by Minnesota-based company 3M, hence the name “3M Open.”
Competitors will converge at TPC Twin Cities, previously known as the 3M Championship, to participate in the 3M Open. TPC Twin Cities is a par 71 course covering approximately 7,431 yards. A defining characteristic of this course is the significant presence of water hazards. Although players may encounter water on a few more holes, water hazards truly come into play on around 9 or 10 of them. TPC Twin Cities consistently ranks among the top five courses on the tour with the highest number of balls landing in the water. The current weather forecast suggests relatively calm conditions, indicating that we can anticipate a winning score of approximately 18 or 19 under par.
The rough at TPC Twin Cities tends to be lengthy, making it crucial for players to hit fairways, as the long rough and water serve as the course’s main defense against low scores. Instead of focusing on driving distance, I will consider fairways gained, particularly because many holes allow players to use shorter clubs off the tee, especially those who hit the ball longer distances. The greens at TPC Twin Cities are made of bentgrass and are generally not overly firm, allowing players to adopt a more aggressive approach when targeting these greens. Greens in Regulation (GIR) percentage is significantly higher at this course, primarily due to the prevalence of wedge shots from distances ranging between 75 and 125 yards. Another critical approach range to consider is 175 to 200 yards, where the GIR percentage is over 3% higher compared to the tour average. These are the shots players will face when opting for a strategic approach off the tee, prioritizing positioning and safety.
Strokes Gained: Approach has a strong correlation with top finishers at this event, which aligns with the course layout favoring skilled ball-strikers. Strokes Gained: Putting is also an essential factor that shows a high correlation with top finishers. This can be attributed to the anticipated winning score of around 18 or 19 under par, highlighting the significance of excellent putting performance. Consequently, Birdies or Better Gained becomes a crucial statistic to consider, targeting players who can generate a streak of birdies. Additionally, it is essential to identify individuals who can navigate the hazards successfully, which is why Bogey Avoidance is also a key statistic. Lastly, the par 3 holes at TPC Twin Cities are notably lengthy, making it worthwhile to assess players’ performance in par 3 scoring from distances of 200 yards and beyond, given that there are three par 3s falling within this range.
The last three winners at TPC Twin Cities were Cameron Champ, Michael Thompson, and Matthew Wolff. From these victories, we can infer that there might be an advantage for long hitters, as both Champ and Wolff fall into that category. However, this advantage primarily stems from their ability to control their shots accurately off the tee rather than having shorter approaches to the greens. Despite the bomber narrative, the overall leaderboard does not strongly support this notion. Therefore, while I will consider driving distance, it will only play a minor role in my analysis.
It is worth noting that Cameron Champ excelled on the greens last year, gaining over 8 strokes. TPC Twin Cities is ranked as one of the least challenging courses for putting on the tour according to Datagolf. This implies that Strokes Gained: Putting may not be as critical here, as even average putters can find success, somewhat mitigating the advantage of superior putting skills. Michael Thompson also gained over 7 strokes on the greens during his victory, further emphasizing the favorable putting conditions. However, winning is not solely dependent on putting performance, as Matthew Wolff emerged victorious by demonstrating exceptional approach play, gaining over 7 strokes in that category. Therefore, my primary focus will be on approach shots from distances of 175 yards and beyond, hitting fairways consistently, and identifying players who can produce low scores.
Key Stats
SG: Approach w/focus on 175+ yards
Fairways Gained
Par 3 Scoring 200+ yards
Birdies or Better Gained
Bogey Avoidance
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